I’ll answer this in US politics thread
Absolutely. I find this small forum to be a real enrichment because as Liverpool fans since years, we’ve learnt to know each other sometimes since years, and when a global crisis breaks out, it holds real potential for the enlargement of our respective views and positions. I regret that we haven’t Russian and Chinese posters on here as well. It would be really interesting to discuss these events with them on here.
This is an interesting view. Let us us take a slight shift in perspective and ask ourselves who benefits from all this in the end. Arms and oil merchants? Who beyond these people benefits from a full-fledged war in Ukraine? Certainly not Russia (Putin is on a personal suicide-course imo), nor Europe, nor even the Chinese, the Indians or the Americans.
Nobody benefits from this in the long run. For me, it always comes back to the same: the arms merchant trusts, and the oil trusts are the real winners here. So, are they possibly behind this?
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I want India’s behaviour to change. Nothing more, nothing less. Protecting Russia should have some consequences in my view, or else states won’t change their behaviour and policy. But of course, I say this because I view the Ukrainian war to be of absolutely critical importance, and since I view it to be critical, I would hope everyone is forced to choose a side and that those who choose the wrong side are made to alter their calculus and backtrack.
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You are completely right on this. 
Also, just as what happened with the Syrian refugee crisis, I expect a backlash in a few months. The novelty of this war and the linked emotions will likely wear down as it drags on, and the usual reflex of xenophobia will then take over. Far right political parties will win new electors and there will be tensions (ie. Germany after taking in one million Syrian refugees). Then, over one or two decades, things will progressively settle down and a part of these people will become integral parts of our respective populations, while another part can hopefully return home and rebuild their country.
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I noticed this clip knocking around Twitter of Boris Johnson’s sister going down the appeasement route again:
From what I can tell she has similar oligarch contacts to Boris Johnson. I would appear that she is trying to seed Putin’s line into public debate. It would fit in with Johnson’s MO so far which has been to publicly act as if he is some sort of global leader whilst his actions are at best doing the absolute minimum and are probably more likely to aid Putin’s regime.
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What about the USSR and Italy?
I’m not so sure. For one it’s mostly women and children right now, which gets a different public reaction and with the previous refugee crisis there was undoubtedly a lot of Islamophobia and racism from certain parts of society at play, as well as prior problems with integration etc. Add to that the lack of solidarity among many European countries. At least for the German public discussion all of that played a huge role. Very easily exploitable by right wingers.
From what I’m hearing some of the previous experiences with large influx of refugees in a short amount of time don’t seem transferable as easily. For example we had developed programs called welcome classes for school kids, which focussed primarily on getting them to a basic standard of German as quickly as possible, so that they could attend the regular classes. Apparently, because many of the Ukrainian refugees aren’t so sure how long they want/ will have to stay, some parents would rather have them stay on the Ukrainian curriculum.
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Heineken would punish Russia more by remaining.
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Yeah that is true, the integration of blonde Christian Caucasian-style people will be far easier, although a quite uncomfortable truth to be honest. But weren’t many families among Syrian refugees too? Possibly more single males though than in this case.
But still, once the social problems related to the influx of refugees will become obvious (ie. a full-fledged housing crisis with ever-increasing prices for flats or houses), there will be a backlash. I brace myself for it already. The nationalist parties everywhere will build on this opportunity I’m sure.
But indeed, the popular backlash might be softer for this new kind of refugees compared to what Eritrean or Syrian refugees have had to cope with.
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I think that also applied to the Syrian refugees as well. There were a Syrian couple at my Volkshochschule class in 2019 and they were still of the opinion that they would return to Syria when it was safe but they were of the realisation that it could be years rather then months away.
It’s still early days with Ukraine. We know a Russian family locally that have been helping out mainly in terms of translation as the Ukrainians can generally speak Russian and the Russian family can them help out with various German institutions. I’m not sure what second languages are spoken in Ukraine. As with many countries it is often English that is the preferred skill.
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I think it’s relevant here to highlight where UK overseas development aid has been given so as to dispel any notion that Western European nations have less concern about the plight of people further away from them.
From Statistics on International Development: final UK aid spend 2020 - GOV.UK
The top ten recipients of UK ODA in 2020:
Also Britain's foreign aid: where does the money go? | Context.
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This was a topic a while back in India , some 7-8 years ago i think. The details are fuzzy and I’ll edit this post later when i find the link
Britain used to send aid to India but then linked that aid to some defense deals(I think it was on India choosing to buy Rafale jets from france instead of buying British ones). India basically said that they didn’t need the aid. There were some nasty comments in the british media about India running a space program etc etc when they didn’t have enough toilets etc etc as well , during that time… As i said, Aid is generally welcome (even if not for India). It’s when it comes with strings attached then it becomes dicey.
Edited to post the link
https://www.devex.com/news/india-calls-459m-uk-aid-peanuts-77419
I think this will turn out to be a win for US. The EU would have stalemated Putin at massive cost to their economy thereby increasing their dependence on US. Also ever since Brexit, There aren’t many other countries who can prop up the EU. That will lead to more splintering as countries chafe under increased costs and look to exit one by one. The US meanwhile is free to concentrate it’s efforts on China.
I don’t see any other country really benefitting from this war.