Indeed.
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well done
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Think this will change their actions?
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Do we really realise what it means though? Being deprived of heating and in parts of electricity? Possibly losing oneâs job because industries wonât be capable of producing goods at the same pace? Suffering shortages in food and other key products, possibly for a long time?
I understand that a majorityâs heart wants more sanctions against Russia, and I for one share this feeling. But are we ready to go all the way and suffer the ensuing consequences? Not sure about that part, but itâs a worthy debate to be had. For instance, would we happily accept a rationing in food, electricity, heating (ie. homes heated at 18ÂșC max), car fuel etc. in order to severely hit Russia in economic terms?
Also knowing that possibly, it would be for nothing because China will be happy to buy all that oil and gas in rubles and finance Russiaâs military machine? My admittedly cynical take is that nobody in Europe is truly ready for this.
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To be fair: the framing of the question/options plays a role here - if you suggest people we could have viable and safe alternatives soon who wouldnât choose that answer?
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Pressure is mounting, externally and internally. Theyâll still try to avoid it as long as possible I think.
I wouldnât be surprised if there are a few in government that are almost secretely hoping that Putin would take the decision out of their hands by just stopping the supply. Anyway, itâs a fairly shit position to be in for the new government.
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The Ukrainian flag occupies 3 of the top 4 best seller spots for amazon in the UK. Itâs apparently become a best seller in the States too (behind only the stars and stripes). I imagine that this pattern is repeated elsewhere.
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Iâm fairly concerned because I really want to see the coalition work out for the better, but theyâre in between a rock and a hard place here, as @Hope.in.your.heart points outâŠ
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Maybe. Personally, Iâm not closing my eyes to possible consequences, although the opinions on what it might actually mean in practice seem to have quite aâŠrangeâŠif you know what I mean.
Ultimately it depends on how you judge the overall situation, if this could make a real difference or not, whether weâre actually all already in the war ourselves in a way, how this will play out in the long term etc.
Personally Iâve pretty much made my mind up at this point, but itâs good to hear other opinions.
From a moral standpoint the status quo is pretty hard to defend, I think we agree on that.
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So Iâm reading a few analyses at the moment, which suggest that it will be painful, but around the same impact as COVID had. I donât know if Germany is the most heavily-impacted in terms of energy imports, but this analysis from ECONtribute suggests that it wonât be catastrophic. There is the suggestion that with the right pricing system (to incentivise saving energy) and targeted subsidies, the impact can be minimised, especially with importing from alternative sources. I presume that the SDP and the Greens would be cool with that, not so much FDP.
On the EU side of things, the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that the EUâs reliance on Russian gas can be cut by a third (factoring refilling of gas stockpiles from the shortages of the winter, which seems very suspiciously timed considering the current events) this year, and possibly even more than half if the EU was willing to compromise on emissions goals.
Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic think tank suggests that the impact might not even be that big if there is widespread international (and especially internally within Europe) coordination to manage the impact and the costs from the increased demand.
Iâm not sure how one-sided these analyses are, however. They caught my eye because they were mentioned in an article by Paul Krugman in the New York Times that specifically focuses on the suggestion that Scholz (and Germany at large) is being too craven to accept sacrifices for the greater good. This latter point is further emphasised by his mention of the sacrifices that Germany demanded from Greece and the other sovereign debt crisis nations.
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All I can say about energy is didnât France fuck up in North Africa!
Oh! there is also Alaska, worth mentionning with prices going up, the USA could do a lot more in the long term! (Donât these Russians want it back now?
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Yep, I pointed to these kind of analyses a few days ago. Thatâs where the debate is in Germany. The government is arguing that these macroeconmic analyses are missing unpredictable consequences due to the interconnectivity in supply chains. Furthermore, they argue that it wonât stop Putinâs war atm. I think Iâve made it clear where I stand personally and apologise for derailing the thread a bit, wasnât my intention.
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