… and NATO aren’t bombing anyone!
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I’ve learned a lot from people from East Germany/former GDR.
With my ‘Western’ eyes the GDR was just fricking bleak, quite literally, totally depressing, grey and oppressive. When the whole ‘Ostalgie’ (nostalgia for the GDR) thing started coming up I initially thought it was just harmless fun, almost ironic and it probably was for many people at first. But then I had to realise it is kind of real thing for some people. For them this was just ‘home’, they knew their way around the system, didn’t care all that much about the politics and felt safe (all while their neighbours/colleagues/fríends were spying on them constantly) - and then it all collapsed.
Very hard to understand for me personally, but there it is.
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Well, there is that other phenomenon which appears at every single war: people unite around the leader, while moral issues or former criticism vanish, at least in the short term. It has been seen multiple times before. But yeah, it’s a depressing sight.
I have good friends who live in my direct neighbourhood since a long time. She is Russian with frequent contact with family and friends in her country, he’s French. They are lovely people, but hold Putin in high regard as the one who reconstructed the country after the Yeltsin disaster. Both are convinced that Russia’s intervention is terrible, morally wrong, a horrible plight for the Ukrainian civils, but still necessary in historic and geopolitical terms.
Suffice to say that these days, we don’t talk too much about politics. I’ve always felt that Putin is an oligarch ©°~†, even if I can understand his popularity given what took place before his arrival. Before that latest war, we had some good discussions about it. Now, it’s more complicated.
But we talked about their feelings: like they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They obviously have access to both sides of the story, and feel conflicted between something they perceive as wrong (war, suffering of innocent civilians) and their loyalty towards Putin, also fueled by what they hear from Russia. They are afraid that being Russian could have negative side-effects for their children at school for instance, who have very recognizable Russian forenames. I don’t think that there has been animosity towards them yet, but it’s still understandable that they might be worried.
All of this is such a waste and loss of time… oh well…
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These different angles are worth looking at. We have the information Putin’s ‘popularity’ rating is increasing due to this war. What is the analysis of this?
When analysing we can not take ‘all’ as one block. There are those that had tacit acceptance ‘yes he’s ok’ some of these will eventually say no to the situation and the war and withdraw their ‘support’. Whilst those who have come into the fold probably include hardliners who wished for a more chauvanistic approach and they are getting it.
Take me for example, I don’t like Macron however compared to alternatives he’s ok (in fact I think he’s the best French President I’ve lived under) I defend him on a number of things yet if he does something I am against I could end up on the street in opposition. There’s others who could be in a very different line of thought.
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Yep, it’s the siege mentality effect that Putin and the Kremlin have been stoking for some time.
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My uneasiness with this line of thinking is the uncomfortable bolded bit. Yes no NATO lives will be lost - just the 1000s (10,000s) of Ukrainians and Russians including many civilians…How many lost lives are we willing to tolerate from our sofas/armchairs/hot tubs? Yes, this is a perfect war for the “West”… Eventually in several months from now, when Russia is fully entrenched in the Donbas, as well as in many other parts of the Ukraine, negotiations will take place to agree on new borders.
I still cannot fathom how in this day and age, the largest country in Europe can be invaded by the largest country in Asia and after 6 weeks and thousands of deaths and millions displaced…Not a single western nation has attempted to directly intervene to save the people of Ukraine. What fuels the gun-happy Republican American culture and their right to bear arms and mantra of freedom? No chance that a Republican government sits back and watches this. Crimea was invaded and annexed during Obama’s presidency and now the rest of Ukraine under Biden. I don’t think it’s a coincidence anymore.
You have got to be kidding. The modern GOP is in Putin’s back pocket. Tucker Carlson is fulminating against any help for Ukraine at all, Taylor-Greene is openly sympathetic to Russia. Trump was impeached for his efforts to deny Ukraine arms that could have been in use right now.
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Historically it’s what ‘we’ do!
I don’t disagree, but American support is on the rising slope, and will be for a long time. The US has always been willing to spend a nearly-absurd amount of money to knock out an enemy tank or aircraft, even an opposing soldier, particularly focused on minimizing the human cost to their own forces since Vietnam. This situation is a dream - cheap Western anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles are taking out expensive Russian assets at a pounding rate.
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I had an interesting parallel experience back in the 90s during the Balkans conflict. I was just starting my PhD at the time in a lab with a Dutch supervisor, German, Russian and a Swiss postocs and as conversation drifted to the conflict, it amazed me how different the “news” was for the Russians compared to the rest of us. Even back then there was a completely polar opposite view on the role of the West. Basically even back then it was the Wests fault and the Wests fault in intervening…
In the short term (and long term) it made me question “my” news more carefully - almost to the point now where I find it hard to watch the BBC, CNN or any other news channel with anything other than a very cynical lens.
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No country that has nuclear intercontinental missiles will ever be invaded.
Sorry man, I’m just super frustrated by all this. My mom is devastated, my uncle has gone nuts buying up UKR flags and pins. Their dad was born in Ukraine, and still identify with their heritage very strongly. I’m grasping at straws right now.
I completely understand the frustration. It was terrible before we found out what Bucha had hidden, now it is difficult to fight down the rage - and I don’t have any familial ties to Ukraine or Russia. I am genuinely glad not to being playing with the Russian guys I know, I just couldn’t do it now. We’re starting to see refugees arrive here, obviously some of the luckier ones, and the stories of children fleeing in terror are just awful. There are two little girls who were in grade school in Kharkiv just six weeks ago, now they are in Carleton Place in elementary school, in a new language (two, actually) - and that transition is nothing compared to what they have seen.
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I started exploring this a few weeks ago, to see what it would look like to sponsor a refugee family whilst they get set up and acclimated to being here. as my wife and I only have one child, I’ve even tinkered with the idea of adoption of an orphaned child. However, I feel like we wouldn’t see a lot of those this far away. Most likely they’d be kept in Europe close to their culture. Just want to help in some way that isn’t purely monetary.
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They dont have more than circa 50 percent in Ukraine. (Ukraine front not Ukraine itself)
Well, I can’t say that there are a huge number here yet, but Europe can’t handle it all alone - and Canada has a disproportionately large Ukrainian community, as you well know. Carleton Place was because of a family member already here, a younger sister of the husband of the family (who remains in Ukraine). A local group was able to get the the mother and family set up in an apartment. In Ottawa, a local Ukrainian church has been coordinating placements.
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Do you think it’s realistic for them to invade Finland simultaneously with their Ukraine invasion? A step too far for them probably, isn’t it?
Not sure how this is transferable to the situation now and to Canada, but I was a little bit active in the refugee crisis here a few years ago and one thing that was always appreciated a lot was helping the refugees with paper work, bureaucracy, doctor’s appointments, school requirements etc - you know, the somewhat necessary crap that is really exhausting and confusing in a foreign country.
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No, it is not. Not unless they throw every hope of economic recovery down the drain, goes for mass mobilisation of all men and Total War. I dont think thats realistic. Sweden and Finland have a window now for a limited time where they can act unconstrained.
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