It’s for the Victory Day propaganda, but fair point !
I have to wonder if UKR is contemplating taking the land battle into Russian territory in the north. The Russians have redeployed to the Donbass region in order to have enough for offensive action, but the formations left in the north have to be skeletal as a result. Even a raid would be catastrophic for Russian prestige.
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Right now, Ukraine is hard pressed and losing dangerous territory in the Donbas though. Some settlements gained for Ukraine today around Kharkiv and they look good outside Kherson. But fierce defense elsewhere and some withdrawals. I am a bit wary. I think Ukraine can cause enormous casualties defending, but I would personally be surprised if they managed to go on the offense and actually take back a lot of those settlements being lost. Slovanks is threatened now.
Crossing my fingers though. The western arty can hopefully help turn the tide if Ukraine holds some more.
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They need to take and control Kherson imo
This would allow them an opportunity to cut Russian forces from Crimean supply. This has to be a priorty for them, no?
The artillary demands wasn’t just for the Eastern front imo it’s noticeable that since they got artillary guarantees they have made progress even if small on this front.
They are a long way from making ‘physical’ incursions into Russia imo however it is something they will contemplate when the opportunity arises imo.
Yeah, indeed. they have a lot of territory they need to regain before any adventures into Russia proper (requires more men for occupation) can be done I think.
A counteroffensive in that area would be going right into the teeth of Russian concentration. I doubt they can sustain that for long, and whether it would be worth the loss in capacity. They need to stay as defensive as possible, make it an asymmetrical attrition fight in the south. But in the north, it is quite possible that there is nothing there except Russian bluster and threats.
Occupation would not be worthwhile. A foray in to cause damage and force the Russians to commit forces along that frontier to hold it would be the only point. I understand their reasoning to date, but they have allowed the Russians to concentrate force effectively for the first time, and that appears to be slowly overwhelming their defences.
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Thread. Please open and read. It’s a fucking chore to copy paste every single tweet and right now I am tired:
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Yeah, sure, raids are probably possible in some sectors. If the targets are worthwhile.
Some thoughts from others on the Lend-Lease:
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Yet Ukraine has been counter attacking there for some time now. It’s generally a topography that benefits the attacker (which is why Ukraine didn’t defend it except in the cities when Russia attacked). Ideal for artillery attacks.
I have mentionned Kherson before it’s essential imo If Ukraine don’t have at least the west bank they remain so vunerable there that other ideas can be scrapped.
As said it’s not a terrain for defending and the Russian threat will be enormous there, you said so yourself there’s a Russian concentration there. The only viable solution there are well planned and executed counter attacks followed by orderly withdrawal to defensive positions. To do that Kherson is the minimum they must take.
Anything Ukraine has to spare has to be used in the East and South. Which leaves both countries exposed to the north (particularly Ukraine as it has the bothersome situation of Belarusse.
Btw my main axis is Kherson, once that city is retaken they have all sorts of military possibilitiessouth and east of there.
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We will see if it really happens this time.
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