For whatever reason, both Russia and the US actually seem to want tensions to be at a high level. It is possible the Russians feel they are getting some benefit from the US being seen as scare-mongering, as dire warning of imminent attacks repeatedly time out. Their ‘de-escalation’ didn’t really fool anyone, but it would appear it was meant as a token gesture. But the stuff being churned out for the British and the US media seems a bit silly, that map of the Ukraine with a red arrow inward from every frontier a case in point.
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Yeah I don’t quite understand that, especially from the US. It’s almost as if they want that war to go ahead, which is a bit puzzling.
Could be military and weapons contracts?
Are they calling a double(?) bluff. Sort of like “we know you’re going to do it” to make them not do it???
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A bluff in order to boost weapons sale to all Eastern European countries, with the gracious help of Uncle Vladimir? That is an interesting theory.
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Considering Ukraine is broke, seems pretty unlikely. Any benefit would be years and years down the line, the risks are immediate.
My guess is that NATO is arguably more united now than it has been any time since 2002, and under US pre-eminence. NordSea is far more problematic now than it was a year ago. Putin may have hoped for a split in NATO, may still be hoping for one, but for now his pressure has backfired, and the US may not actually want it to stop. However, the level of tension still seems awfully dangerous relative to the benefit.
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I read that it is an attempt to call Putin’s game so that he has a harder time planting ‘false flag’ attacks as a reason to invade, by pointing out everything he is doing.
US/Europe trying to play the mind games with Putin after coming off second best in the past.
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081707415/us-threat-russia-ukraine-invasion-diplomacy
I can also see the US trying to sell Europe some gas…
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I’m just guessing here but I don’t think Russia is looking to invade all Ukraine. Looks to me like they will attack Kiev from Belarus to force Ukrainian ‘troops’ to retreat back there. Then they will take the rest of crimea and a big slice of ukraine to the river. Then call a holt. This will leave a ‘ukrainian’ buffer between ‘them’ and ‘us’.
They will then hope everyone will accept this, just kicking and thumping ukrainian resistance to keep them in line.
There’s ports and economics involved, leaving ukraine with nothing substantial will be a decent win for them (russia).
I think the Russians will attack however I hope they don’t and go home feeling tired and hungry.
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Seems like it is happening now. An obvious false flag operation of utmost stupidity (but hey, if you need to cook a Casus Belli I guess anything goes):
And now explosions in Dontetsk and Lugansk. Both separatist enclaves will now evacuate the civilian population to Russia. Happening now…
It is criminally insane. The false flags are so obvious, Ukraine has absolutely ZERO interest in escalation !!!
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More of the false flag:
This is footage of separatists engaging saboteurs 
Now they detonated a pipeline:
War will now break out 
I had a forlorn hope that Putin was just threatening and bluffing. But as I feared, it is kicking off (wit stupid false flags).
I think you might have mixed up the numbers. As 62,500 is the exact number that Ukraine is reported to have mobilised.
The concept that it’s some kind of large exercise building field hospitals, bridges and other infrastructure support near the boarder is a bit of a stretch.
When coupled with cyber attacks and a number of ceasefire violations
It certainly looks like escalating to war.
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The separatists have begun shelling all over, it is escalating to war. This is a blatant attack cooked up with a faker than fake Casus Belli by the Kremlin. Anyone supporting or defending this should feel shame, nothing else. Ukraine is exercising impressive restraint tonight.
It is beyond obvious what is happening now. This is the pre-war period, where Russia uses the Seperatists to destablise and shell, and blow up stuff, while their forces move into attack positions. It is beyond bonkers that Kreml think anyone but insane people will buy the latest propaganda about an imminent Ukrainian offensive and chemical attacks, blowing up pipelines, etc. So fucking blatant false flags it’s not even serious !
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Threat assessment. ISW thinks large scale campaign to be imminent today. Read details.
so what happens from here in your opinion?
not from an end result, not asking you to predict who ends up where or anything, but how long does the fighting last before diplomacy becomes front and centre again, is this gonna be long and bloody, or smash and grab…
If I had to speculate, it’s relatively quick (a few weeks). The west looks on with disapproval but ultimately does little (freezes a few bank accounts, maybe prevents trade). Both sides then negotiate for peace. Part of the occupied land returns to Ukraine but overall Russia gains territory.
From a weak negotiating position Ukraine becomes effectively a puppet state. Except for the people of Ukraine it soon becomes old news. Only good for fish and chip paper.
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I had the same sort of view working in Hounslow, though post-Concorde days Plane lights all in a nice row in the sky coming in to land in the afternoon. It makes you appreciate just how rare plane crashes are.
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I’m finding it quite interesting how the West, but in particular, the UK, are being very transparent with the public with the intelligence they are gaining.
I guess this may be in reaction in past events where Russia has been able to control media/social media and thus control the narrative.
It’s difficult for Russia to lay the blame with Ukraine if US and UK have released intelligence hours earlier to the contrary.
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Russian doctrine is not about efficiency, it’s about using a sledge-hammer to crack a walnut.
Here we go, getting worse and worse:
So far 1 Ukrainian soldier killed so far today.
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