Answering my previous post:
A senior Ukrainian official told me: “I know all about that game. The Americans — always so wise after the event”.
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Never leave to waste any opportunity to show your beard with some dramatic music. (Just guessing, I watched it with sound off)
I don’t know if it has been mentioned much, but a (very small scale, said to be SOF but now with minor armoured support) very tiny crossing of the Dnipr has happened a while ago. SOF have operated there for a while but it has grown a bit more serious lately. Still minor, don’t expect a large invasion yet. But they are making the life for the Russians on the other side very hard.
From yesterday when shit was going down:
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672642236012544000
Rumours and reports from today
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673002828284022785?cxt=HHwWgsC-gavN2bcuAAAA
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673043506216984580?cxt=HHwWiICznY2N7LcuAAAA
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This is the cynic in me…this ‘revolt’ against Putin…is it really?..or is it a setup for his ‘elections’ next year…just to prove his ability to defend his Russia…
Russian forces there are quite disorganised. They suffered more than a bit from the flooding. The retards in charge could of course not tell their troops in Kherson that they were about to blow the dam for Op-Sec reasons, so their defensive positions were flooded, mines washed to sea and a few even drowned in their trenches. The systematic Ukrainian bombing of logistics there and in Zaporizhya region has not helped (yes, I did NOT write Zap correctly and only write it correctly when I google and copy paste the name, because it is well, not exactly a word friendly to a Norwegian).
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I don’t see how that makes sense. The Central Power has been humiliated, 7 helicopters were shot down, a large oil depot bombed. Putin does not come out of this stronger. Rather much weaker. It is just more obvious to some intelligent Russians that they are ruled by a mafia click, which sometimes competes with other mafias. There are serious cracks in the walls of society now.
And I don’t know if you have seen what prigozhin said in his speech. It was fucking explosive, totally demolished Kreml narrative and straight out said that Ukraine was no threat to Russia and that Kreml launched the war for bogus reasons.
A moment, I’ll search for it.
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I mean, take a look at these clips. Consider what he says there. Consider how awful it is for Moscow that he says this, and that it is widely published on the internet and viewed by Russians, since it is the opposite of their narrative:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984?cxt=HHwWgIC82Z6k4rQuAAAA
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672186669762596865?cxt=HHwWgsC-ldS65rQuAAAA
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672193945604947968?cxt=HHwWgIC8tZXi6bQuAAAA
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672203268796055554?cxt=HHwWhICwzeyA7rQuAAAA
Sure, he only blames the generals, but for those who picked up his mentions of oligarchs with cancer wanting to live forever, well, that’s probably about Putin.
So no, this is just damaging for Kreml, everything was. And Putin now looks weak as fuck, having given them amnesty after they shot down 7 helicopters and were only 200km from Moscow. 15 Russian air men were killed by Wagner. Those included 3 electronic warfare helos, 1 military com plane and a KA-52 attack helo.
Then later came this and the (lol) march of justice. This after Wagner filmed a phony video of their base getting bombed in a funny pretext to march. This was of course planned by them for a while, they needed a lot of ammo and supplied for this.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672316037428027401?cxt=HHwWkoCxseykobUuAAAA
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Ukrainian traitor (former commander of the Ukrainian SBU Alpha Team) and now Russian commander in Donbas, comments on the situation:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672916642601349121?cxt=HHwWgsC90dW0srcuAAAA
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1673026831195291649?cxt=HHwWgoC-0b7C5LcuAAAA
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1673026832961003521
Those who are interested in analysis, could do much worse than read this:
Not saying everything he sayd is necesarilly correct, but he is an expert on the topic and knows hell of a lot about the Mafia-State.
Considering weakness being dangerous like he notes in an authoritarian system, nationalists are now openly calling for Putin to resign
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Putin pardoned all the soldiers who were in the uprising…sent the main man to exile in Belarus…all within 24 hrs…you would’ve thought he would have put em all on trial…made examples of em…just seems strange…
Or is he a ‘set up’ to cause trouble in Belarus with Putins help…
Exactly, and this is disastrous for Putin. He looks very, very weak.
But can you not think of good reasons for avoiding civil war while their army is behind Wagner lines in Ukraina, holding back an Ukrainian offensive ? It’s like choosing between shooting yourself in the knee and shooting yourself in the head in my opinion. You choose the option that gives the best chance for survival despite your future prospects looking bleak. Making an example of 25 000 veteran soldiers of Wagner who has a hell of a lot of the best Russian kit, would be very costly, and what if various units started to join their rebellion ? If I was dictator, I would seek to nip it in the bud asap for sure. A collapse is not always something you can see before the snowball is big enough. I think Putin and his click were quite afraid that it could led to total disaster.
As for it being strange, YES ! It all was cuckoo, but then perhaps it was all a symtom for how frail society is in Russia when the war is going badly, ?
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A video of some relatively minor UA advanced around Bakhmut. It is a strong video though
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672939251598589953?cxt=HHwWgoC85dfYvLcuAAAA
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https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1673041384243077124?cxt=HHwWiICxpcuR67cuAAAA
https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1673044114999332864
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1673027935790411779?cxt=HHwWhsC9weSC5bcuAAAA
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1673021172273881088?cxt=HHwWgIC9sYz54bcuAAAA
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1672639574500077574?cxt=HHwWjMCztZe1tLYuAAAA
Just a few pics, it is not like “nothing” happened.
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This was in Rostov during the “episode”, golden. 
someone asked a street cleaner in Rostov what he thought of the Wagner soldiers around him, and he replied ‘everything is going according to plan.’
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672546416147693572
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This article follows a narrative that Prigozhin is a dead man walking of some sort and that he doesn’t have much left on his side. But in any case, Russia’s reality has been exposed.
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Thread about the crossing to the left bank in Kherson:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1673076704393195520
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Russian MoD posted a video with Shoigu.
https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1673208468776337408
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Warning - random armchair hand wavy comment.
Was the whole debacle that was the coup (whatever it was) a play to expose the power structure behind the Ukraine invasion? It seems the army is the major player in terms of pushing to start this conflict and maintaining it and, by the main player not being fired, revealing who holds the power - the defence minister and not Putin???