I guess the point is that there is no clear evidence for saying whether the claim is correct nor incorrect.
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I’m not sure I could quite go that far either but it is very convenient for them. I suspect they haven’t got that level of brain power to be honest. They’ve simply used it as an excuse for yet another turn around.
Thats what I was getting at, but by dint of group-think, and Im no patriot, UK bashing has won the day. I suspected so. But thanks for clarifying. Its a huge charge to lay that the UK would deliberately mislead the WHO for its own political ends. And actually the resulting situation exacerbates the situation with brexit even more. The idea you could hide brexit’s impact with this is simply poor judgment to me.
Not to mention the impact on mental health…doubly so if proven to be an exaggeration.
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The uncertainty about the claim isn’t just coming from some blokes on an internet forum.
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Where from then?
We have to wait few days for more info on the strain. It is new and various lab tests and research takes a few days.
The indications (and this is coming from the scientists studying this at the front end, not the government) are that it is notably more infectious. How much more infectious it is, has yet to be determined.
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Yeah, it’s not like links haven’t been posted on here by other members. I’ve heard Christian Drosten for example, a leading virologist. And they are not saying the UK is flat out lying, there are simply questions/uncertainties about the interpretation of the data available.
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Wait, have I missed anything ? No one actually thinks the UK government is lying about this ? It has no reason to. I haven’t seen anyone say that. It is just that other experts in other countries are saying that it is probably too early to categorically state anything about the actual increase in infection rate ? The 60-70% is a working thesis of UK experts surely ? But if UK experts fear it might be up to 70% more infectious, it is natural that they divulge that info asap like they have done. I see nothing to criticise as of yet. Maybe there will be a lot to criticise later but that’s an unknown for now.
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Good bloke. One I tend to listen to, as he speaks sense more often than not.
And when he occasionally gets it wrong, he freely admits it once he becomes aware of it. I respect that.
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Yeah, like I thought. Questioning the validity of data, if it can be categorical or not. No one says the UK is lying or hiding important info. As far as I know, anyway.
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Yeah, probably just unfounded ‘UK bashing’ from him in this case.
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Ah fck daft old me, then we have to wait a few days for the conclusions. The world is mad; some nob jockey writes some analysis on twitter capable of bringing a nation down, its not the the UK needed any help.
How is he a leading virologist if he is putting the cart before the horse, as in making conclusions before he has any data?
He’s not.
And btw, neither am I, I was on here earlier suggesting it might be best to just wait and see. And that it’s wise to be extra-cautious.
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That’s a very good article. Seems well balanced and absent of obvious distortion or hyperbole.
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Whats this then? Looks like politico-scientific scaremongering under another lens.
The issue is one of looking at a trend, and attributing a cause.
In the UK the trend has been a rapid rise in infections, and this occurs at the same time as the presence of this variant with different mutations. There are numerous variants of this strain. So the question becomes is this increased prevalence because this strain is more transmittable, or is it simply down to chance ?
Someone, somewhere has done a calculation that its 70% more transmittable. There is no evidence in the public domain that supports this. It looks like someone has said essentially there 50 people with variant 1, and variant 2 at date X. Today there are 100 people with variant 1, and 80 people with variant 2. That means variant 1 its 70% more transmittable.
Having gone from low numbers in the summer, the change of behaviors, second wave come the winter was always expected. I am not certain its not simply by chance we are seeing this variant, or one only slightly advantaged, that this variant has come to the fore.
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