The Corona Pandemic

:rofl:
Good old M&S, we have a C&A here, no M&S though.

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What we can learn from this tweet is that Tikka Masala/Lamb Korma is more popular than Butter Chicken?

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You mean apart from these 21 stores?

All M&S stores in France are in Paris except 1 (that’s in Lille) and that English in Paris don’t cook? :rofl:
Which begs the question, what do they know about France?

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I find that a heartening story. Such humility that many could learn from.

I do wonder however if the UK’s approach was initially taken as a leap of faith that has now turned good?

Everything that was said about it at the time indicates that it was a decision taken based on how vaccines typically perform. The data re the optimum interval between doses of the covid vaccines was non-existent due to the speed in which the trials needed to take place but extending the interval between doses was based on prior experience of other vaccines and the recognition (of which there was already evidence) that the first dose alone contributed significantly to reducing the risk of serious illness and death.

On that basis the scientific advice to the government was to get at least one jab into as many of the high risk groups as possible and the easiest way to do that was to extend the interval up to a range that they had confidence (due to experience with other similar vaccines) would remain at least as effective.

It was a calculated risk rather than a hail mary, in my view.

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Really depressing to see how ineffective the AZ vaccine is against the SA variant. That could end up being a massive setback for the UK in particular, but the AZ vaccine is globally the most available right now.

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Yes, at the same time I think some of the reporting has been a bit confusing. What I’ve seen reported is that the AZ vaccine is ineffective against the SA variant at preventing mild illness.

I think most people’s take away from that would be that if it is not even effective against mild illness, it’s not going to stop people dying. When, in reality, I don’t think that’s what they’re saying, is it? Has anyone taken the AZ vaccine and still become seriously ill or died from the SA variant?

Mild and moderate. The findings against severe are not statistically significant, though it does appear it is better than the 10% efficacy. Still not enough data to really know - South Africa only just got their first shipment about a week ago, but it is notable they are suspending use. One critical point is that the hoped-for effect on transmission (suppression, rather than the resistance effect) won’t be nearly as strong.

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I thought all the vaccines started from the top down, ie prevented the worse incidents from happening but in some cases the mild or lesser symptoms may occur. If that’s the worst case scenario then I’m sure people will still be happy to have AZ but only if the other vaccine aren’t available to them.

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In theory, that’s right and certainly the case with regard to the original variant. The concerns have been how effective the vaccines that have been developed against the original strain are against the various mutations. Pfizer and Moderna are, I think, still showing good levels of efficacy against all the existing mutations but AZ’s efficacy against the mutations is troubling. Against the UK one it seems to be doing ok but against the SA one there are real concerns that its level of efficacy is so low that it will do very little to protect the population, significantly reduce onward transmission etc. That’s a real blow at this point.

AZ are working on tweaking the vaccine to deal with these but they’re always going to be at least two/three months behind the curve in doing so and the developing countries really need to be able to have access to a reliable, affordable and efficacious vaccine as a matter of utmost urgency.

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It does appear that way, so the fact that AZ may reduce the probability of severe cases is perhaps still useful. But combined with the clear ability to reinfect (no statistically significant difference for that variant between new and reinfection rate) means that the UK’s vaccination program may no longer be able to stop the course of the pandemic in the country, the hope would be that it would prevent a significant number of deaths. However, the deaths have been overwhelmingly concentrated in the most vulnerable populations already - for which there is minimal data at this point.

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It isn’t really helpful to see this situation in terms of national interests. There is a global imperative to combat this virus as quickly and efficiently as possible, and that means any success of any vaccine is good for everyone.

And the first port of call should be to stop people dying.If AZ is the easiest and quickist to get out there, the world over, and stops people dying, then get it out there.

I think Arminius just means in terms of the fact that we currently have community transmission of the SA variant, unlike most other countries. We’re also basing our mass vaccination strategy on high volumes of the AZ vaccine. The logical step is that the Pfizer vaccine doses need to be directed towards the areas of the country hit by the SA mutation and the AZ vaccines directed elsewhere.

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This is what I understood @Arminius to be saying too.

I agree with the broader point, but the UK right now is by far the most exposed globally to this problem. It is devastating, because that vaccine is in production or about to come online all over the world.

Unfortunately, the global imperative has scarcely been a factor - I was saying a month ago that the real global priority was containing and eliminating that South African variant before it really took off. Instead, it has been allowed to spread - first cases in Canada identified over the weekend.

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Right, but we don’t actually know that it really does that much to prevent most of the likely victims from death.

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