The Corona Pandemic

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You but others too given the socialist jibe - thought it might be a talking point :rofl:

He doesn’t really help himself, does he?!

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I’d be curious as to what he has to say about the constitutionality of the Statute of Rhuddlan

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No. he is complete pillock almost to the point of comedy. I really feel sorry for the people of Somerset. Do they know what they voted for?

Still he gives hope to many of us. You too can be that stupid and get a great job in Westminster.

Yet again you surprise me with your knowledge of stuff like this.

I suspect he doesn’t know what it actually is.

Now we’ve got to this stage, Tiers 1/2/3 would it not be a good idea to have cross party discussions, (as we should’ve in the first place) to sort out the next order of attack on Covid. Whether you think Bozza is doing a good job or not, I think he is trying his best, no party has ever had to deal with anything like this, so if they all got together to
discuss strategies, liaise with all city mayors, we might get somewhere. fgs try and sort it.

If reinfection can occur, does that not then rule out herd immunity?

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Boris has turned down numerous offers for exactly that.

Far easier to go it alone and funnel even more cash into Tory Party donor’s pockets.

Its so exasperating…!!!

Haha, keeping @Arminius safe.

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Welsh grandfather, son with an ff and a dd in his name…

Leaving aside the nationalism, if the regional autonomy has any substance whatsoever, it has to be manifest in the face of a health crisis. This is not day-to-day stuff like tariffs, it is emergency measures.

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A belated welcome to the fold.

An interesting twist is that you have this government effectively creating borders left right and centre with regional lock downs but when someone else does it, it’s because its unconstitutional behavior by a group of Socialists.

Also worth noting that the Welsh version of track and trace (not run by a private firm by the way) continues to out perform the English counterpart despite not knowing where Dafydd has been for the last 2 weeks.

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It doesn’t, actually, but it makes the mathematics a great deal harder. The idea of herd immunity is basically that the incidence of immune individuals reaches a sufficiently high level that contact between the virus and vulnerable officials becomes very rare. Obviously, if people are moving out of the immune population into the vulnerable population, the immunity is compromised. If you think of it in a dynamic setting, individuals will be flowing into the vulnerable population (losing immunity) and out (catching it). You could theoretically get to a point where the virus is nonetheless contact any of the vulnerable population if the percentage of immune individuals was sufficiently high. If you could get the entire society to that state for say 3 weeks, you could clear the virus.

But then Uncle Bill comes from the UK to NZ, and the whole thing starts up again. Once you think of it in terms of multiple population cycles, or one massive global population, the likelihood is that by the time herd immunity is reached in the last pool, it has been lost in the first.

The most likely outcome is something like a sine wave with peaks spaced by roughly the average term of immunity. It is at least possible that is precisely what we are already looking at.

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Fairly wide popular support for that measure. The border is starting to open up a little for compassionate reunification and so forth, and the government is looking at how to resolve weird little problems like Point Roberts (WA) and what to do about the Hyder-Stewart problem.

But as long as we are seeing stuff like this:

the border best stay more or less closed.

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Haha. Drain The Swamp takes on new meaning. But I’ve heard the chloroquine julep cocktails available at concession are not to be missed.

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Coming soon, the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party Irish Wake

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I think it is practically impossible without widespread Covid parties, or some other form of conscious variolation strategy. I just dont think we can achieve the rate of transmission required to get enough people infected in a short enough amount of time that. Look at even somewhere like New York, where the geography is ripe for transmission and it went community before people were taking much precautions. There is still no indication that even under such great conditions that it got more than about 10% of the population, and that over the course of about 3 months.

Even if we use the most favourable values for both parameters, lets say 40% infection and 9 months immunity (and I dont think either have any basis for believing they are close), you just cannot get there without conscious efforts of large portions of the population to infect themselves.

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…and equally, the cycle of restarting the whole thing is incredibly easy. I think it quite possibly could be easier to eradicate it - right now that too is a long way from feasibility.

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Such is the poor control by some large nations (US, UK, India, Brazil and Argentina) and a vaccine I would estimate being at least a year off. My bet is that is that the virus mutates (given huge number of opportunities) to something that is easier to control (which might be something more or less infectious, or perversely more or less deadly)

Although mutation rate is far lower than we see with influenza, nearly 40 million people have been infected world wide. By Christmas we could easily be in the realms of another 20M-80M. Providing increasing chance of new variants.

I am anticipating this Christmas being pretty grim in the northern hemisphere but hoping it is the beginning of the end. With nature taking its course.

I just hope that this does not become the new normal for the next decade

Yeah, thats probably the best option right now.