Only if you have them and are treated! Lyme disease springs to mind for the later.
Absolutely shocking that the bars and cafes are still open. Lots of moaning here, but compliance is generally pretty good. You see a lot of socially-distanced beverage gatherings in driveways that are ‘discouraged’, but that is about it.
1 Like
I think it’s all deliberate. The government may officially distance itself from pursuing herd immunity but to me it’s fairly obvious that it is at least going for community resistance.
The wishy washy phrasing is almost designed so that only x% feel the need to comply. Sure, I think it’s partly to do with the economy but I also think that the government are trying to ensure that the virus circulates through the community at just the right rate to build up community resistance but not overwhelm the hospitals, particularly the icu capacity.
Everything else is secondary.
3 Likes
I am not sure what community resistance would actually be. Flattening the curve to fit the entire population through the health care system takes dramatic reduction measures - I am not sure what the utilization percentages in the UK are now, and the percentage of cases requiring ICU use seem to be significantly lower, but England for example is at the same level of hospitalization as it was the end of March yet adding cases at over twice the rate it ever was in the Spring. The math still doesn’t work for longer than about 10 days.
1 Like
I agree. Although, of course, we are testing more than we were then so it’s difficult to compare the different rates of increases in case numbers. I just can’t get away from the sense that the government wants as much as the population to contract coronavirus as possible whilst trying to keep the levels of icu hospitalisations at a manageable level. That’s been my sense of it almost throughout and it’s the only way I can rationalise the failure to lockdown hard and early both in March and now from the end of September, ahead of the second wave.
1 Like
My impression was that ICU hospitalizations were not at a manageable level for a period this Spring, relieved by adding overflow capacity - but for a week or two it appeared the NHS was absolutely overwhelmed
1 Like
Agreed, I think the government were somewhat caught by surprise by the speed with which it spread and the difficulty in arriving at what treatments may or may not be effective (as can be seen with the issues over mechanical ventilation). The government was forced into being reactive and behind the curve of what level of icu capacity was required such that by the time they got a handle on that the worst of it had passed.
Now though, my impression is that icu capacity is much higher (as a result of the steps above) so we ought to be able to cope with a higher number of hospitalisations with a greater success rate for treatment. Whether the NHS itself can cope with the strain is another question (re staffing) but I guess that’s why there have been suggestions that other vital health services (operations etc) are likely to be reduced/postponed to ensure the staffing levels are there for covid icu patients.
6.6k new cases today, of which around 750 in my area (roughly 800k inhabitants). Yeah…
2 Likes
I think that’s been the plan all along. So long as the NHS is seen to be coping the rest is fine.
It’s a shame that no one actually knows what herd immunity is for this virus.
The entire world is in chaos. As per worldometer, yesterday alone there were 26 countries where the new cases count was 3000+
Yet China has had an increase of 3000 in the entire last 6 months. China may already be having a cure and a vaccine.
No they don’t. Not yet, they can’t hide mass vaccinations of their people, someone (many) would have been talking about it. It is 2020 with satellites and internet and not 1940, mate 
I agree that the number is remarkable though and I am also not entirely sure I trust it. Note that the virus has several strains though, some are much more infectious than others. In Norway we have 3 strains of it as far as I know. One of the strains is not particularly infectious for example, while another is very infectious.
1 Like
I will note that Russia has started mass vaccination of their people, using their novel Sputnik vaccine, quite some time ago. First it was volunteers (among the civilian populace), I am not entirely sure if they have started to vaccine every category of people yet.
Their entire ministry of defence has been vaccinated, as have all military officers and Quick Reaction regiments.
Let Geopolitics be Geopolitics, I wish them the greatest success. Time will tell though, the vaccine is not tested enough for Western standards (third test regime not at all finished).
2 Likes
One question: is there anywhere a site where we can see the proportion between number of cases per day and the number of badly ill people being taken to hospital per day, and per country? That statistic seems to lack on the sites I visit for information.
1 Like
Worldometers has a ‘CRITICAL’ column but it’s cumulative. So for each country you need to remember what it was before (you can follow for a few days).
I gave up trying to find decent easy to follow data (the UK is an absolute mess even on Worldometers there’s columns empty and the data doesn’t seem to correlate). So I just follow France when I want info I back search what written each day on the ‘L’Internaute’ direct line and others. I gave up on the UK that’s a real shitshow and I don’t trust their figures even if I find them.
I presume when all this is over a load of post grads will go through all the ‘available’ data and then we might be able to see something if we fall upon the good papers. Otherwise we will just get the usual revisionism and a pile of bollocks.
2 Likes
So, let me get this straight. Despite testing more than any other European nation we cant present our data in any manageable way.
Damn who would have thought that Excel was so complex. We should have got some experts. … you know the type that Gove listens to.
A fantasy?
3 Likes
I suspect that many scientists would say that.
I also suspect that a few politicians, naysayers, conspiracy theorists etc. would say otherwise.
Not really. We seem to be developing something like that. I shared a news article few days ago.
Unfortunately not. Showing high levels of population level antibody presence is not evidence for the possibility of herd immunity.
It is only progress to herd immunity if herd immunity exists/is practically possible.
2 Likes