"So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant.” Boris Johnson added that the slew of mutations may have increased the virus’s transmissibility by 70%.
Christian Drosten, a virologist at Charité University Hospital in Berlin, says that was premature. “There are too many unknowns to say something like that,” he says.
For one thing, the rapid spread of B.1.1.7 might be down to chance.
"But scientists say B.1.1.7 may already be much more widespread. Dutch researchers have found it in a sample from one patient taken in early December, Dutch health minister Hugo de Jonge wrote in a letter to Parliament today. They will try to find out how the patient became infected and if there are related cases. Other countries may well have the variant as well, says epidemiologist William Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; the United Kingdom may just have picked it up first because that country has the most sophisticated SARS-CoV-2 genomic monitoring in the world. Many countries have little or no sequencing.
"The evolutionary process that led to B.1.1.7 may also occur elsewhere. With vaccines being rolled out, the selective pressure on the virus is going to change, meaning variants that help the virus thrive could be selected for, says Kristian Andersen, an infectious disease researcher at Scripps Research. The important thing in the coming months will be picking up such events, says Andersen. “Whatever enabled the B.1.1.7 lineage to emerge is likely going on in other parts of the world”, he says. "Will we be able to actually detect it and then follow up on it? That, to me is one of the critical things.”
Perhaps it’s just a coincidence that the spike was first noticed in Kent. Home to Folkestone and Dover.
This is what crossed my mind. The vectors of transmisssion haven’t changed it’s just how easily this variant get’s into ‘our’ cells that has changed. In other words it is not a serious change.
The UK are reporting up to 20% of UK cases have this variant (surely not exclusively) so it might not even be the dominant variant even in the UK (even if 20% is high).
It’s certainly not the mutation that would scare me the most.
As I have said before this is political and that others play politics with it is the UK’s fault, they decided to inform their population for whatever political reasons and now have to play the game.
?
In a press conference on Saturday, chief science advisor Patrick Vallance said that B.1.1.7, which first appeared in a virus isolated on 20 September, accounted for about 26% of cases in mid-November. “By the week commencing the 9th of December, these figures were much higher,” he said. “So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant.”
In London it apparently is now the strain responsible for the majority of new cases, according to Vallance.
I think the line is ‘it could be 40 to 70% more infectious’ of course we take the bigger number to exagerate the thing. As the best way to limit the damage this virus does is to reduce the transmission vectors and this variant doesn’t change those vectors there really is a lot of nonsense about it. However, the reaction of Europe considering those vectors is appropriate.
If you isolate well, wash your hands and all around wear masks, don’t gather in large enclosed groups much stays the same.
Agreed. I presume that’s why Johnson said “may be 70% more infectious”. I’ve seen other scientists caution that they’ve seen double the infection rate in the lab, which would make it 100% more infectious.
Obviously too early to say what the precise difference is with any certainty but makes sense to err on the side of being extra cautious/vigilant.
I watched a press conference on German TV earlier, the key message is that we are observing and investigating closely together with WHO and our British colleagues, but so far there is no evidence. The high spread of this mutation in the UK could also be due to a lack of compliance with Corona distance rules or a superspreader event in that area, etc.
Not entirely.
They could have looked at China and realised heard immunity was likely to not work
Because of the high number of fatalities if the spread isn’t contained? Isn’t that more of a moral judgement at that stage? That trying to achieve herd immunity isn’t worth the cost in lives rather than a conclusion that herd immunity couldn’t be achieved? The latter could only have been known a few months later given the findings that (in some individuals?) an immune response may only last for 6-8 months.
So it is/has become an exclusive strain (at least in London)?
I wonder why they didn’t lock London down (earlier)?
If it was exclusive to London the exodus on Saturday made sure it didn’t stay there.
Exclusive? No. It accounts for the majority of new cases in London though, according to Vallance. No idea if the data is showing the same in other parts of the country or not.
Exclusive in that it’s the only variant found in those with that variant.
I don’t know whether it cohabits. Sounds like a very personal question so hopefully someone else will ask it.
Maybe this is one of those situations where it’s best to wait and see and hold our breath (quite literally)
Yes, but in the mean time…
It will sound rather selfish but such behavior/activity will in no time put Liverpool in worse tire and fans will be banished again. 
It isn’t evident. I presume what’s happening is that the UK are seeing this strain become ‘dominant’ at least in London and the SE of England. Without a lot more information it’s difficult for us to know why/how.
Is it due to XMas shopping? The fact that the SE is colder and drier this time of year than other parts? (always drier) Which social groups are most affected? We just don’t know so what’s being thrown out there doesn’t make much sense.
For instance is this strain now the dominant strain in Liverpool or other parts of the UK?
My guess is is that as the UK Gov has reacted it’s hitting those ‘higher up the ladder’ so it’s probably gota lot to do with XMas shopping. (Just love speculation don’t you? 
)
