I’m concerned too. But as you say, it takes time to shift mentalities. We had become accustomed to the fact that the US protected us for so long. Now, we suddenly realize that we are all alone. It’s bitter.
In my opinion, a giant is slowly wakening up, less thanks to Putin, and more due to Trump. But I agree with you that the rhythm of that awakening, and the sheer time needed to get up on our collective feet, is too slow to save Ukraine.
I also agree that it is dangerous for world peace to wake up that peculiar giant.
One thing I do know, the “Strong Men” mentioned above, that may soon be necessary to have in power and make cynical decisions, will not focus on global poverty, will not focus on Climate Change that do not directly affect us. It will be brutal Zero Sum, to stave off threat more vivid and tangible than Climate Change.
It would have been nice if such “men” (can of course be women, just an expression) would not become necessary; because it carries a sociopolitical and socioeconomical future risk too (1800 and 1900 wasn’t really the best time).
Bad news for the EU: the nationalist Nawrocki, a Trump admirer and ‘Poland first’ candidate, has won the knife-edge presidential election in Poland (50,89% of voices).
Even though Tusk remains the main man in Poland, that is a heavy hit for all who were hoping that the EU, and especially the Eastern part of it, could move a bit more away from far-right nationalism.
Im surprised at that result. I thought Poland out of all Eastern European countries would remember the dangers of the far right and giving them even the slightest sniff od gaining power
To be fair, the previous president was from the same party, so on the surface, nothing changes much. But the problem is that this one is a genuine Trump admirer, and will no doubt follow his footsteps in trying to erode all democratic institutions in Poland. But Poland, just like all Eastern European countries, aren’t the US: their democracy is still very young and fragile. Let’s hope that the majority of people there will recognize what they now have, and don’t sacrifice it because of the scare those far-right politicians try to instil into them (scare of strangers, scare about what the future holds etc.).
No, the Hard Right has been extremely popular in Poland for decades. Before the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Poland was Orban’s closest allies through the Law and Justice Party. They only differ when it comes to Russia. The war as such, has helped bring Poland closer to western Europe politically. But before the war, news items in Europe was about the rise of authoritarianism in Poland, the clamp down on Polish courts etc., not Hungary which was seen as less important).And if you have followed the war, you know that polish farmers have routinely blocked (also today, I can find a picture) grain imports from Ukraine as well as regular supply and that they have strong support.
But they hate Russia more (most of them).
But really, the difference between Duda and Nawrocky is not so big. Both are pro Trump, the latter more cowboy perhaps. But same revanchist shit, though I expect Poland to become even more vocal regarding Germany and Ukraine and the “unresolved historical issues” (as they say) now.
I worked for a company that employed about 70% of it’s staff from Eastern Europe, the majority from Poland.
Without wanting to generalise, they were as racist as they come. Made it quite clear that what was going on at the time with Eastern Europeans flocking to GB to work wouldn’t be tolerated in Poland. “We’d fight you in the streets” one of them told me. They were quite happy to express views that British people wouldn’t because they’d be labelled a bigot etc.
There is nothing to be surprised about at all.
France 15.5% of the population live under the poverty net figures for 2023. It’s the highest level since 1996.
This is imo the biggest problem. Standard of living is slipping. It was the reason behind the ‘gilets jaunes’.
This isn’t just a problem in France it’s probably all over the world.
Right now, Norway’s position outside the EU, usually seen as a vulnerability, looks better and better and the EU is less and less interesting and I don’t fucking see why we should join the European Union before it becomes a serious geopolitical power block. We are not Poland (by far the biggest winner for years in the EU), we are not Ukraine or any of the states so desperate to join the EU. What’s in it for us (yes, yes, we get to have a vote regarding regultions and all that, I know, but still), a post industrial wealthy state with fishery interests that already clash with the EU, when the EU cannot even properly function like a powerful cartel ? EFTA seems better and better now. That we get better terms with Trump than the bloody massive cartel, is an eye opener.
I have been pro EU since I was in my 20s. But if there was a referendum tomorrow, I would probably vote No, as I have been increasingly EU skeptical since Russia invaded Ukraine. The issues regarding dysfunctionality is obvious and it’s paraded every week in the media since the Ru invasion. Hungary (previously Poland) and Slovakia does what they want. EU folds against Trump. How can that be sold to the Norwegian public ? To join a cartel, bullied by the US ? What’s then the point with being in a cartel ? As sovreign Norway, we have an independent voice, much weaker than the EU of course, but we get by. And under Trump, it seems being outside the cartel is actually an advantage.
I am not sure there was a better deal out there - in the end, Trump and his group are determined to increase consumption taxes on the American people. Maybe some sector by sector tweaks, but not much more.
I will however be interested to see if this can make it through the member states.
From what I read, there wasn’t a better deal. But to me it is still an eye opener. Eu begs us to join, every other year and are gushing every time there is even the slightest debate inside Norway regarding the EU. But why should we join now ?
10 years ago, I had good answers to those questions. Very good. These days, I am skeptical. Hungary and Slovakia has (and before that poland with law and justice party) highlighted it’s glaring political issues of 100% consensus required.
It’s other main advantage is obviously it’s trade cartel (and scientific cooperation and student exchanges, to be fair, but again we are in EFTA…). No longer sure it’s currently such an advantage at all.
For the empthy ideal of being “European” ? It’s a nice idealistic thought that would maybe persuade a 16 year old Magnus, but there is no such thing in practice, as shown by Hungary and Slovakia.
When (if ever) the EU becomes a political union, everything would change of course. I would be in favour of joining such a union. But the current configuration, I am less certain about despite the glaring negatives of being in “only” EFTA.
Is the outcome of the treaty such a surprise to anyone? Once you take Russia out of the equation (which is the case), there is almost no interest for the US in securing European security. Now it just a strong man play.
In addition there is no interest in Europe beyond what’s in front of their noses.
Taken together there was only going to be one outcome.
I like to think that the small part of an idiot savant came up with the strategy… but it will be the think-tank behind (hopefully or else the sky really is falling).
The only thing I would say about a deal with Trump is that they are all fundamentally worthless. He is likely to change them on a whim or default on them altogether. If you see his record in business, anyone he did business with got shafted.
I can only imagine that the EU are looking for keeping him in a holding position and hoping that an adult will enter the room at some point.