I was hoping that the strategy of, oh well, he’ll be gone in 3+ years, let’s wait it out, would work. But.
The issue with that is that the US are not going back on it if the positives, in terms of what the US are expecting, pay off to any degree, why would any future government do that?
That assumes that there will be any positives for them. All they have currently done is to make things needlessly expensive for themselves and stifles international trade. It is possible that it will encourage growth in certain parts of their domestic industry, but the other policies that they are pursuing internally. will stifle that.
I’m more neutral. If there is a hint of a gain, there will be political pressure to maintain some part (or all) of the “deals”. Also, is there a real hope of a challenger/challenge from the Dems that is likely to result in a non Repub government?
“It is a sombre day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and defend their interests, gives in to submission,” François Bayrou, French PM.
He’s not mincing his words…
I’m wondering: is the EU also applying new tarriffs on US imports in the frame of this deal?
Baseline only, but no reciprocal tariffs (that is the submission part).
EU’s pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional | Reuters EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional | Reuters
From the article that seems to be the case. I don’t know much about these things but we promised to buy a certain amount from them, more than what they can produce by the looks of it.
So they will be celebrating a big sale which will make them so much, but it won’t cos they don’t have that much stock(oil and gas) to sell.
I might(probably) be wrong, Arminius or others might be able to say if my take is accurate.
I can imagine the ‘discussion’ between the two:
Trump: You’ll buy energy for 250 billions from us. It’s not negociable.
VDL: But, we have an annual need of…
Trump: It’s NOT negociable!
VDL: But your production isn’t…
Trump: DIDN’T YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I SAID?
VDL: OH, fuck it, whatever you want.
Well it is the biggest, bestest deal in the whole wide world, ever.
If the US does supply that volume of energy to the EU, there is no way that US domestic energy prices are not driven significantly upward. The real winner of this deal may be the Canadian oil and gas sector.
If the US were to sell everything to Europe and then have to buy from Canada?
In effect, yes, but I was thinking more of the price effect. If US supply is diverted to sell to Europe, North American energy prices will be pulled upward. Some of that will stimulate additional American production (of shale oil in particular), but all incumbent producers will see an increase in the price they can command.
Most of these EU energy importing is done by private companies, no? Is the EU supposed to make them buy from the US?
Good point. Would many of them be privately owned?
Thread:
https://x.com/andrewmichta/status/1949733551248744575
https://x.com/andrewmichta/status/1949733552922186232
https://x.com/andrewmichta/status/1949733554822185186
https://x.com/andrewmichta/status/1949733556659372127
https://x.com/andrewmichta/status/1949733558697812150
Criticism of thread:
https://x.com/alemannoEU/status/1949769708690891087
That’s the idea. But Ursula admits that she has no such direct power to enforce it.
It’s sort of a cluster fuck, all of this. I am fairly confident, after having done a lot of reading, that it will be enforced, some how, though.
I am fairly confident that there will be a great deal of double-counting and counting existing investment, which is all par for the course with Trump.
I think they are probably both right. This will galvanize the EU to some degree, and force some hard questions to the fore that the EU has been ducking for at least a decade.
That’s what I have been hoping for since 2022. But allow me some skepticism regarding the speed of such change. Because certain things which are institutionalised, does not change with ease. Obvious problem is the nature of the European Union; as it is, after all, not a political union.
The problem is of course that perspective inside the Union, willingness to take risks and pay costs, varies wildy from state to state and region to region.
This is my (admittedly rudimentary) gut feeling.
He could die any day, and failing that, only 3.5 years to continue kissing the stubby-fingered ring.