To be honest, I think the biggest threat for the people returning/living in northern Gaza isn’t Israel but the various gangs gradually taking control (with tactic or explicit support from Israel) of that region.
Hamas has pretty good control from the shadows, i think. With lots of informers. Then again, I view them as a gang, just very organised and religious. But sure, others will likely take some advantage.
Imo, greatest threat is poverty and misery. There isn’t much infrastructure left standing. All universities and colleges have been methodically demolished. There isn’t a social scene anymore. It’s going to be very bad for years, I think. There isn’t going to be an economy that isn’t directly Hamas or foreign aid, I fear.
Palestine 
has applied for full membership of the UN. A surprise development.
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Very dangerous situation playing out in Lebanon after the kidnapping and execution of a christian poltical leader in Lebanon. Riots, syrian refugees getting beaten up, road blocks. It is bad.
They think that it’s Assad’s Syria, maybe Hezbollah. It’s bad blood and now bad very tense. I think most people are unaware of how fragile Lebanon has been in the years after the big kaboom at the harbour. Now it is very bad.
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1777430764918886549
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1777433419946856494
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1777452879197982726
https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1777413613461876986
https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1777414448791138423
https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1777416813720088617
https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1777432472591958225
Meanwhile, Iranian foreign minister flew home to Tehran from Damascus today. Minor event, but everything adds up and various actors are talking.
If what I think is about to happen, I am as stated above, incredibly unsurprised. Hate to be right about these matters, but I read a a hell of a lot about Geopolitics, so it happens sadly from time to time that I am.
https://twitter.com/JokermanIntel/status/1777492455136584115
https://twitter.com/JokermanIntel/status/1777493031995969840
Also:
https://twitter.com/JokermanIntel/status/1777460049839038894
These launches, which will be against Israel and execute officially by Iran itself, I guarantee you that, will be designed to not hit anything critical or kill many civilians. It is propaganda in a way. They need to get themselves some deterrence, it is all it is. But it will still lead to a super dangerous situation.
Still hope I am wrong though, but it is very slim chance of that now, I fear. The deterrence and escalation logic points to a potent response strike.
Iran trying desperately hard to not mistake another civilian airliner for an American bomber with these early, ultra telegraphed NOTAMS.
All it apparently takes is a relaxation of the bounds of the AI software to get incidents like above possible.
I do think there needs to be an understanding signed by all countries to regulate/ban the use of AI etc in case of profiling and targeting. Considering the error factor and the learning aspect of AI. You do need the human element to make an informed judgement. This is assuming that IDF isn’t painting the sins of a trigger happy drone operator on AI.
But don’t see any of that sort being made a priority.
All that becomes inconsequential if there’s further action by Iran which “forces” US to retaliate.
US establishment is well experienced in making Iran to be the scapegoat.
Almost four years now since that particular catastrophe befell them and the official investigation is no closer now than when it began to securing whatever passes for justice in that country. The politicians thought responsible for the catastrophe have waged war on the investigation and the public prosecutor (who was himself charged !) has suspended the investigation and ordered the release of all 17 suspects who had been detained in connection to the case. The entire affair is emblematic of the absolute chaos and despair that has gripped that country. Along with its financial and energy crisis the place is fast approaching failed state status , its system of confessionalism only adding to the anarchy , and greatly helping Hezbollah become the de facto power there , to the point where one of the government’s ‘leaders’ (from another party) described their retaliatory rocket attacks into Israel early in the conflict as ‘patriotic’ , almost inviting a much more serious response. I also think we are on the brink of a second Israel / Lebanon war and if you’re right about them launching missiles then that will be the catalyst.
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You can type the first sentence without outing yourself as a stuck up entitled dickhead with the second one.
OR
You can just stop with the “I know better than you” stuff.
Are you referring to Iran Air Flight 655?
If so, that was actually the US shooting down an Iranian passanger flight.
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I was assuming it was Ukraine Airlines flight 752 which was the one accidentally shot down taking off from Tehran.
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Shit. I forgot about that one. Good pick up. I just remember the Iran Air one from the Air Crash Investigations tv series.
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This gets a bit heated up, and too personal, so I deleted the last few posts.
And indeed, the blocking option is your friend when necessary.
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…
Anyway, I’m worried about tomorrow. I hope it’s just a very ellaborate warning and that retaliation will take other forms (it’s far from certain after all, just looks like it). This night should give a good indication as satelites would likely spot movement if there were serious preparations for a larger retaliatory launch. In any case, if and when it happens, I think it will be very limited.
Meanwhile, it is reported that ISR flies training missions in secret (not very secret, they leak it on purpose), training to bomb underground nuclear reactors etc.
@RedWhippet was correct. I was referring to the civilian airliner downed in 2020 after the Soleimani assassination as I that was such a horrible mistake for them that it ruined their narrative after the assassination, and even the regime and Khamenei offered an apology. It was a political disaster for them. Before the airliner got shot down, focus was on the surprising and heavy Iranian retaliation against the US and the fact that they dared to challenge and retaliate against Trump and the migthy US like that. Focus was also on how surprisingly accurate Iranian missiles were, Iranians were proud. Then as they fear a US response and are on high alert, they fucked it all up and focus changed to their catastrophical fuck up.
So yeah, understand why they would want NOTAMS if they intend to launch missiles in a telegraphed manner !
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