The Middle East Thread

Lately, I came across this interesting organization, which shows that things aren’t as black and white as people like Netanyahou would want everyone to believe.

https://cfpeace.org/

Combatants for Peace is a grassroots movement of Israelis and Palestinians, working together to end the occupation and bring peace, equality and freedom to our homeland. Committed to joint nonviolence since our inception, we use civil resistance, education and other creative means of activism to transform systems of oppression and build a free and peaceful future from the ground up.

Launched in 2006, we are the only movement worldwide that was founded by former fighters on both sides of an active conflict. As a result, we were nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017 and 2018.

VISION : We believe in a future where all people live in peace with dignity, justice, and liberty.

MISSION : Combatants for Peace (CfP) is a joint Palestinian-Israeli community working in solidarity to end the occupation, discrimination, and oppression of all people living on this land. Guided by the values of nonviolent resistance, we are showing the world that there is another way.

Palestine & Israel
Combatants for Peace is led by a Leading Circle, which is similar to a Board of Directors. The Leading Circle guides all movement management, direction and vision. The Israeli staff works out of the Tel Aviv office, while the Palestinian staff works out of the Beit Jala office. Together, the staff provides the infrastructure and financial support to provide for the movement. The Activities Circle coordinate all movement activism, campaigns and lead the Regional Groups of local activists.


It must be an utterly testing time for them as it is for everyone, but these people incorporate the way forward. Everything else leads to destruction.

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The problem there is that recent history doesn’t really show that as a successful strategy. Barak ended his political career by trying something like that, and for a time it appeared that the PLO were in real trouble - Hamas as a prominent alternative movement really dates to the last time any serious discussion of peace happened.

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Palestinians really don’t need Israel to be their main enemy. The likes of Hamas / Fatah do a better job screwing them over than anything Israeli government do.

The self defeating nature of both the Israeli and the Palestinian leadership is one reason why there is no easy solution being adopted.

This is one of the factors for Israel’s invasion of Gaza.

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Wherever new gas ressources are involved, war comes up… it’s really disgusting.

‘Gift of God’ my arse… had Arafat known what this would imply for his people and himself, he’d never have said this.

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Natural gas is absolutely not one of the factors for the Israeli invasion. Please, I don’t want to be rude and this isn’t the Ukrainian thread and try to keep disagreements to a single thread and not be a dick. But natural gas is something Israel is in control of anyway. It has asbolutely no bearing on the Israeli political decision to go to war. That political decision was taken on October 7/8, has nothing, absolutely nothing to do with natural gas, but everything to do about collective social shock and grief and the intense need for vengeance and making sure it never, ever happens again (from the ISR point of view, not my own). The decison to go to war was imediate, and there was national unity in Israel. No one debated gas. It was a poorely planned war, it is going strategically badly for ISR, much because it wasn’t planned. It was started by Hamas (if they wanted to start an actual war or if it’s miscalculation is irrelevant) and it is a reactive ad-hoc operation with many stupid political Israeli statements on War Goals that is not really well planned.

That Israel wants and indeed anaexes/steals palestinian gas is obviously true but besides the point.

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Those who are interested in Israel-Palestine issues can check this site/magazine.

They have some interesting/unique insights. They are also the one who brought the issue of AI generated targeting by the IDF to light.

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You listen to a lot of the rhetoric coming out of some parts of the government about Palestinian right to return and it will melt your brain. There has been a shift in the government over the past 15 years to increasingly distance themselves from the holocaust as the justification for the existence of the state towards pointing to their historical claim to the land. There is a famous story of members of Obama’s team being torn apart by their Israeli peers for a speech he gave in Israel pointing to the importance of the holocaust in backing Israel. Yet there is now a sizeable faction who dismiss the Palestinian claim of right to return on the basis that most Palestinians were now born elsewhere so have no such right.

Been gone for 2000 years - yeah, but it’s our homeland
Been gone for 30 years - well, I guess you’d better consider yourself Jordanian now.

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Hmm. Could be something. Could be nothing.

https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1777373093159170320

Maybe I should use another thread for the impending Iranian retaliation, but it’s kind of related (it would never have happened without Oct 7 and the following ISR campaign in Gaza):
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1777371016311832838

My guess is on tonight or tomorrow.

Why? This is the dedicated Middle East thread.

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Fair enough. It’s just that someone has changed the name of the thread to sound like it is principally about just Gaza, which makes me wonder if it’s ok to post about butterfly effects and possible regional wars and conflageration etc. But you are right. Let’s assume it’s more diverse.

I’ll change it back.

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Lot’s going on, rockets, drones, artillery strikes and aerial bombardment in Lebanon and northern Israel too, but I guess everyone knows. I won’t bother to post about “lesser strikes” in Lebanon unless they kill a lot of civilians (which they sometimes do) and I think Hezbollah will dramatically escalate.

Nasrallah supposed to speak today. Probably related to Iran’s decision making. But I am fairly sure Hezbollah will not dramatically escalate to a point which forces an ISR invasion. They don’t want an israeli invasion (not because they fear IDF and total defeat but because of Lebanons extraordinary shitty economy and political dire straits), so for that to happen, some extraordinary decision must be taken in Tehran (or miscalculation, there are always the danger of attacks being too effective and escalation control not working…)

Oh, didn’t know it was you. It was NOT meant as criticism. I was just thinking aloud, mate.

It wasn’t me. But I have now changed it back to its original title, in order to avoid confusion.

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Is there any unusual/heightened activities in Israel/Lebanon? From what I can see from media sites (who are rarely up to date), the activities seem to be like last six months. What’s worth noting is Israel has killed another Hezbollah commander and Hezbollah have downed an Israeli drone.

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Whatever this means. Not much, but I think it is clear that High Intensity War is over in Gaza, apart from maybe the Rafah operations, which may or may not happen (60/40 in favour of the chance of it happening I think).
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1777375009079472549

But life for civilians in northn Gaza will be extremely bleak. There isn’t going to be any real security and the danger of a sudden ISR strike on what they think is Hamas (which may or may not be and they have shown they don’t care about collateral in this conflict) will remain high. Awfful. We need an end to all of this and a sustainable Cease Fire leading to an end to the conflict. But I have 0 faith in that.

Not really, but it remains a daily activity that Hezbollah strikes Israeli border positions with ATGM or rockets/drones and ISR retaliates with artillery or air strikes and people actually die on both sides (more on the lebanese side obviously). It can only go on for so long before a certain political echelon decides enough is enough and decides to invade. The reason Israel does not truly pummel Hezbollah is because (both they and Hezbollah knows this) they are wary of multi front wars, which is something Hezbollah exploits.

But it’s worth mentioning because Nasrallah is having a speech today and that may or may not mean some sort of escalation.

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