Nope. Iran will wait to see what the US does next.
Biden is losing patience with Netanyahu and his government. There is no point in Iran striking Israel, when all that will do is strengthen Israeli pleas for American support.
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I am not so sure of that at all. If they do not respond, they have no deterrance against Israel in reality. Getting 2 top generals killed in diplomatic compounds is probably too unacceptable, I think.
But weāll see. iranian state media has started to show videos of ballistic missiles with triumphalistic music added to it, so. But no one knows for sure. They are not imbeciles and are calibrating response. It is possible you are correct, even though I donāt think so personally.
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I donāt think it is actually trending towards a real change, I think the Biden gov is deeply unhappy, but willing to support and deflect for Israel for much longer than this. They have Bret McGuffin (McGurk; i loath the man) and others strongly advising him to absolutely not stop munitions aid and just continue to shield ISR, since it can risk losing israel as an ally and etc.
And from an Iranian pov, I suspect retaliation and deterrence restoration has nothing to do with Gaza (their generals and IRGC officers were killed at a diplomatic compound in Syria). Iran actually has a big, big regional and geopolitical problem if it does not militarily respond; it risks becoming Assad controlled Syria, which has absolutely no deterrence and gets bombed by ISR every single month, not having the capabilities to strike back at israel (i.e. a pathetic punching bag in geopolitical terms).
That it is an obvious butterfly effect of the Isr-Hamas war does not necessarily mean that it is directly linked, it is more a stark warning that armed conflics can spread and are hard to control.
But of course, these are just my thoughtsā¦
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Weāll have to disagree on that point.
Biden has an election in November. He realises that there are millions of Muslim votes at stake, as well as those of non-Muslims who are disgusted by the continuing genocide in Gaza, and his policy towards Israel will reflect that.
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Nods I am not so hopeful regarding US position regarding Israel at all. From my perspective, it is more painful conondrum for Biden, but I think they will back ISR for much longer than this. If we get more aid collumns bombed and such nasty matters that creates problems for Biden, it may change. But I think US Dem political calculations are cynical enough to assume that the pro-ISR vote is bigger than the Muslim vote and that a geopolitical alliance is not broken easily.
I donāt think Biden is going to stop ISR unless some Black Swan event/s.
Maybe ISR fucks it up by acting particularly malicious or stupid in manner US just canāt ignore, though
But I hope you are right. This is absolutely something I hope I am very wrong about ! And maybe I am.
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Sure but they donāt have anywhere else to go, itās really only a question of turnout and, sadly, that will be driven more by fear of the orange fuckwitt than any humanitarian concerns
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They need to actually overthrow the govt not simply walk the streets at this point. Israeli civil war
In reality , only about 100,000 registered a protest vote in the Dem primary in Michigan , the only state where there is even the prospect of the war making a difference come November. If Biden was truly worried then he would have announced an arms embargo rather than just expressing his āoutrageā. It could still happen of course but for the moment it looks unlikely.
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Good post @Magnus . I thought about writing about it, but Iām not good at articulating such strategic issues.
I donāt think Netanyahu or the Israeli government will enjoy much support even if Iran hits Israel. Yes, there will be some condemnations and more restrictions on Iran and some material support for Israel. But those would have happened in any case. The extent of Israeli atrocities and the extent of Western leniency means they have totally bankrupted the notion of Israelās right to defend itself. Furthermore, US, its allies and its Gulf proxies, donāt want the escalation resulting from an Israeli response to an Iranian attack. While they know that Iran and its proxies could be weakened, the damage to themselves would be considerable too.
I agree with @cynicaloldgit that Iran may wait to see what US does with regards to Gaza. Iran is very likely to wait till the next Israeli atrocity, which is never far away, to hit Israel. Meanwhile, Iran can hit opponents of its proxies and thus demonstrate its capabilities and strengthen its proxies. Iran can hit the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or other Western/Turkish backed militant groups in Idlib, Syria without much/any consequences.
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I donāt see Iran hitting Israel. Not in a direct attack at any rate. They will continue arming up their terrorist / separatist proxies etc but Iran doesnāt have the conventional firepower to take on Israel. Not without incurring severe losses.
Any such misadventure will give US the right to push the buttons of their gulf allies and derail the Iran - Saudi deal. Remember that the Iran - Saudi deal is something which has been pushed through by China and US isnāt really happy about that deal.
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" A senior Iranian official has warned that none of Israelās embassies were safe any more, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Iranās supreme leader, was quoted as saying that Tehran viewed confrontation with Israel as a ālegitimate and legal rightā.
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I am very late with this news, but IDF has withdrawn all brigades from southern Gaza early this morning.
They now have only the Nahal brigade in Gaza left.
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1776894050072748358
They have decided that territorial convential control is not working (they didnāt truly attempt that), and will continue with counter insurgency clearing operations instead of holding ground. So in and out. From a purely military pov, this means that they will seek to collect intelligence on Hamas gatherings and senior mebers and etc., and then strike hard in surprise incursions from sea, sky and ground.
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1776913005319442576
This does not necesarilly mean we see light in the tunnel and a potential end to the war, but it means the characteristics of it will change. Likely more aid will get in.
I am cynical, I think partly they are doing this for economic reasons (having several brigades deployed is expensive, as has previously been shown by IDF disbanding units after initial operational phase) and partly because it will lead to less civilian collateral, less criticism from US. That means they can keep this going for much longer.
It can also be a preparation for an incursion into Rafah. Gallant claims this. If political situation is favourable, they will strike in force soonish after the withdrawn brigades have rested a for some time.
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1777006623300493353
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1777010808221790429
ISR commentators not happy. Netanyahu promised end of Hamas control of Gaza. Now IDF is withdrawing, letting Hamas return and there is no alternative Palestinian government in place, meaning de facto, one of the crucial ISR War Goal is now visibly unlikely to be met (I have been saying from Day 1 it would not be met, but many Israelis were messianically positive about liquidating the entire organisation Hamas and installing alternative government).
https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1776987591520165950
https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1776982480211280176
Imo, terible for Gazans. They now have to continue to be governed by Hamas (which isnāt very great for a lot of Gazans) but find themselves in a situation where ISR have carte Blanchāe to continue to hit Hamas, with no Cease Fire in sight.
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It was always a pipedream that Hamas could be destroyed. Israel might (a very small possibility) succeed in taking out a sizable portion of the present leadership of Hamas. But there will be no shortage of recruits to continue the attacks.
The only way that radical terrorist outfits like Hamas become a non entity is for Palestinians to stop supporting them. And from what Iāve seen , thatās not happening anytime soon.
The issue is that Israel are driving Palestinians to support Hamas, and the likes, and the longer that Israel tries to bully and whip Gaza, the more they will drive the local population to supporting the actions the Hamas and other groups take.
If Israel showed some brains, and offered genuine willingness to establish a viable 2 state solution and stopped the extreamist right-wing from their illegal land grabs, give the Palestinian refugees in Jordan and other countries the ability to return to their homes, these groups would lose their sway over the population.
As long as Israel refuses to acknowledge the rights of Palestinians, they will continue to create the breeding grounds for Hamas and other groups like them.
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Yes. Israel is always going to have these problems if they continue this way. Saner minds have to prevail.
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The problem here is that while doing that is in the interest of Israelis, itās not in the interest of the people in Israel who hold the power.
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