Absolutely.
Agreed. The way this is going though , it doesn’t look like the Palestinians are going to get better than the peanuts that Trump’s plan is.
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To be honest the comparison was with reference to the Biden admin, and carried ???. But in good faith, you’re right Trump was more gun-ho than Obama. Obama got criticised though for being cowardly, do you remember that red line that Assad crossed? Obama bottled it - after Ghouta - that was because Putin provided him carrier killer missiles to take out a US carrier group. That’s why we got a coup in Ukraine!
Trump was aggravating in Israel and Palestine, I agree. If it matters the place is continually aggravated.
I’d like to see the stats on Israeli offenses committed in Biden’s rule and those committed in Trump’s.
Not including the current genocide ofcourse.
Trying to see if I can find something that gives an indicator.
Doesn’t really matter what the stats prove or don’t prove though. Trump with his idiotic peace plan damaged the confidence of Palestinians that they would get a fair deal.
Obama, believing that the ongoing AUMF covering existing actions in the middle east did not extend to Assad, went to Congress to ask them to authorize intervention as he believed he was legally required to do so. They denied him that. We can pull apart the politics and leadership failures of how we got to that situation where he looked so feckless, but I don’t believe this is a reasonable characterization of the events, especially as the evidence linking the attack to Assad was according to US intelligence not as rock solid as it needed to be in the “my predecessor invaded the wrong country due to faulty intelligence” era
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Its right, and he even had a carrier group stationed in the Med in spring 2013, about to soften Syrian air defences by way of the US well proven putative strategy of regime change aka ‘Arab spring’. Obama also publicly made the statement about crossing a red line, specifically about the use of chemical weapons, and then resiled.He resiled because Assad had carrier killer missiles given from Putin.The actual evolution of events is not always openly publicised for intelligence reasons, so you have to connect he dots. Come to think of it, the Arab spring was entirely the doing of the Obama administration. But these were the dots:
- Syrian Civil War 2013
- Euromaidan revolution 2014
- Crimea invasion 2014
- Russian deployment 2016
- Donbass conflict 2014 to 2020
- Ukraine war 2021 to date
The only hiatus being covid. But as soon as that was out the way, Putin invaded Ukraine. Begs the glaring question what was covid and who brought it about?
Have people really not made the connection that Ukraine arises in response to the US trying to tackle militant Islam? Its simply obvious to me.
I’ll take some of that Dutchie. happy Friday.
They value the raw materials in Ukraine at a total of $12,000,000,000,000.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/10/ukraine-russia-energy-mineral-wealth/
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The world is currently hooked on China’s teat, slurping on the milk of cheap manufactured goods and technology. the world operates and is reliant on it.
Hence, why Taiwan Semiconductor was is slowly being relocated to the west and why Buffett dumped a BILLION in their stocks. there’s a massive shift happening right now over a lot of zero’s in corporate bank accounts and it’s for control over resouces and materials.
I hope someone here in Canada recognizes this and starts positioning us to a place of strengh instead of being China’s bitch. we have a LOT of fresh water which generates nearly-free electricity. just difficult to grow food here year-round…
if we REALLY wanted to fuck with China, we’d shut off the potash supply…
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Indeed, and my feeling about this is the West think they can work with China but not Putin. China is using Putin to destabilise the world, because it suits them to recalibrate the world power dynamic. China will do a deal, Russia will not. At some point, if western intelligences were more pro-active, than reactive, they would seek to get between this cosy relationship. But they can’t, because of 75yrs of US hegemony. Which informs Putin to seek to break it. Its in a vicious power circle at the moment, some way to go before these actors look and see all their chips are down.
As an aside, you mention water, which is the next resource to go 'scarce; and become expensive. Several investors have told me if you have spare dough, invest in private water companies ASAP.
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Powerful article, and 3 of the 5 locations are already under Russian control, and the other two, not so far, north of Zaporizhzia and in territory Russia has indicated a claim to.
High level land for obvious reasons. Cheap as chips in Wales right now. Your great grandkids might just be VERY greatful.
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This is very helpful thanks because I’m looking for somewhere to put my root down. Ive been drifting around the country for 20yrs, seen a lot of places, ended up for now nr Wigan, but have to decamp to Newcastle for 3-6months at high summer. I presume you mean North Wales? Ive not made it there yet, but was about to have a little jaunt. Might only make it to Delamere but will get to north Wales soon.
I think you overestimated both Russia and China.
I think John McCain was on the money when he described Russia as a “A gas station run by a mafia that is masquerading as a country.”
I don’t think China was pulling the strings, it was simply Russia acting like thugs to their own detriment.
Russia exerted influence and power as Europe was dependent on Russian fuel (Trump was right on this too). This was threatened by Ukraine both being Europe leaning and new oil field and lines. Just like the Mafia if you encroach on their perceived patch, you are a threat.
Russia overestimated its capabilities. The long term consequences imo is that it’s fucked. Let’s ignore them losing. That leaves two options protracted war or actually winning.
Around 40% of government spending is on the war. If the war is prolonged infrastructure crumbles and there is increasing unrest. The long term drain mirrors downfall of Soviet Union (Afghanistan drain). Despite the circumvention of sanctions Russia can’t afford for this to continue indefinitely.
However let’s say, Trump is elected president. Military aid dries up and Russia goes on to win the war. in isolation I think the cost of rebuilding Ukraine and maintaining security will be to high. It like controlling Iraq but much much worse.
The only outcome I can see is Russia becoming subservient to China. Just like India China is more than happy to exploit their downfall. But don’t think they are architects.
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What happened to Gaza, Palestine 
, Israel, and Middle East in this thread???
Mr. Biden, stop pinning everything on Hamas. Israel is blocking the aids, Israel attacked Rafah despite your repeated warnings, Israel blew-up those tent-camps, Israel killed that World Kitchen convoy. The list is really inexhaustible.
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This part made me laugh 
…while Gazans would be able to return to their homes across the entire strip.
What fucking home??? Don’t you even watch TV???
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He’s taking the piss, and allows himself to laugh at the suffering Palestinians. The hypocrisy is obvious for everyone having eyes and ears.
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Didnt know who this was for, but I’ll respond.
Ive only estimated the existing dynamics, not really considered the likely outcomes. Russia could indeed come under China’s yoke. But its a very real axis aligned against the West, include Iran, NK and Syria. For instance Syria supply the Islamist battlefield drug Captagon. Chinese spying scandal and 4th Gen fighter blueprints…NK seasonal missiles. its all orchestrated, as was to me, Oct attacks on Israel. Ukraine was really bogged down and had been for 3/4 months then that? I’d even go farther and assert Russia are hands on with Islamism. There seems to be a gang of migrants somehow now in Belarus storming the east Poland border Hmmm. They got free passage over Russia. A bus?
There was a book published recently I need to read but is called 5th Gen Warfare and it has a Chinese author (I think) - its outline is economic war, sabotage, hacking, immigration - all intended to saddle a country with burdens it cant manage. Sound familiar? I think the threat is real and also the architecture. As well, Russia are exerting large pressure on former Fr. colonies in Africa - I assume there is incentive also to send men here from those countries via weaponised immigration. Assad/Iran will also be giving hand outs to anyone prepared to make the trek.
The forecasts you make are really interesting and may well come about. McCains quote about Russia is on the money ‘a big ball of gas and hot air’ then They may likely implode, Putin looks scared right now as NATO are deploying. Russia will not be permitted Ukraine. So how does he climb down? Unless of course as you say Trump is re-elected, then…Im just not sure where it ends
I don’t think either Russia or China dare use nuclear weapons on a large scale, but I suspect there may be one or two tactical exchanges, or some other nasty stuff we dont yet know about.
The endgame is economic. This axis I identify hope to downgrade the West so that China can rise into the space as an eligible economic adversary, then they all come in behind like the West did with US. This is what it is. Its also imitation. They are testing if we are up for it at the moment. I do think Russia are fucked as well unless they can swindle something.
Sure, but what was openly publicized was Obama declaring that he could do nothing to Assad militarily without a new war authorization. We then saw him go to congress asking for it, get rejected and then publicly humiliated over it.
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It could have been to save face. They do this. It not as if they could just say, after that rhetoric leading into it, we’re now shitting it because we cant afford to lose a US carrier. What they worth $30Bn?
We’ll not know other than mooting around known facts. It was summer 2013, I was on a trial on London, and it was side story I cannot now find. But a picture of Russian missiles reported to have been given to Assad, they were white and very exotic, sophisticated shape, almost water like if you will. Then in Nov, Euromaidan. So I intuitively feel those missiles, stopping the US bombardment of Syria by air, were causal of evolution of intensities between the US and Russia. After Euromaidan Russia respond and take Crimea, Feb 2014?
If you follow this line of reasoning it leads to some awkward questions, I don’t think many want to face, about Russia’s relationship with militant Islam.
I do remember Obama pulling Putin’s arm off and grimacing at him at the next world summit they met at.
Its a reverse of what we see now, with Putin threatening the west about using western weapons in Russian territory. That gifting of missiles to Syria was the first big stand made at the US for a long time. I think they failed in their response.
We really do need to call this man to a fight, as he intends to continue his WW3 mind games unhindered until we realise it has to be taken on. Its only been 11 years in realisation!
Russia Provides Syria With Advanced Missiles - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
This is all I could find. The BBC article I initial read has been removed.
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Do they do that? I was under the impression that they don’t remove articles, I’ve found stuff as old as 1997 before.
(Syria crisis: US rues Russian missiles sent to Damascus - BBC News)
Found something but its not the one I recall seeing which was July, this is May 2013.