If we add that 7000 to the 21000 dead already accounted for, it’s over 28000 killed in 86 days.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the total number exceeds 50k.
Not unlikely considering the level of killings combined with Israeli government’s plan to continue the killings for months. Meanwhile…
I meant by now.
I’ve speculated early on in this thread that the total deaths might even be as much as 250k (both as a direct result of Israeli military action and as the after effects when disease etc sets in )
I guess it’s a good news
Not really.
Israel can just use more drones now. Will help quell the domestic noise on soldiers and still continue to allow them to target Palestinians mercilessly
True. It’s driven by economic considerations. The war has costed Israel $8-9b and the reservists make up 10-15% of its work-force.
Apparently, Israel has withdrawn five brigades or around 10,000-15,000 soldiers. So, how many soldiers did they pump into Gaza?
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An Israeli drone strike has killed the senior Hamas commander Al Arouri in Beirut.
Will Hezbollah now make good on its threats to avenge any such attacks on Lebanese soil ?
Dershowitz. Lol
Based on the low level of Israeli counterbattery fire late last week, I suspect Israel is anticipating exactly that - in order to use that as a causus belli for a massive escalation, including at least an incursion into South Lebanon.
We’ve been inching towards a full blown confrontation ever since Oct 7. It kinda seems unavoidable now.
I think , roughly speaking , the calculations will be that Israel will have no compunction in completely clearing the area south of the Litani and that Hezbollah will be prepared to sacrifice the destruction of most of the country if it means they come out the other end in complete control of whatever is left.
Maybe. The other possibility is another round of the Lebanese Civil War, where some combination of Phalangist Christians, Druze, and Sunni use the opportunity of Israel going after Hezbollah to carve back some of the gains made by Lebanese Shi’ites during the period of the war, and afterwards. The 2006 war is seen in Israel as unfinished business. This would be a very nervous time at UNIFIL.
I wonder how fruitful it will be to drive Hezbollah across the Litani. Large part of their artillery rockets has a range of 40 km and can reach Israeli border towns and garrisons from even beyond the Litani. Not to mention Hezbollah also has a sizable arsenal of missiles with range of 150-200 km.
Would the combined strength of the Phalangist, Druze and Sunni militias be a match for Hezbollah (and possibly the Palestine factions) even with the tactic (aerial) support from Israel? Hezbollah has grown immensely over the years. So much so that even Israel considers them a threat.
Also, as far as I know, Hezbollah has established rapport with some of the Christian and Sunni factions.
I think the Israelis’ main concern is to prevent any cross border incursions. 35 km would give them a formidable buffer zone.
But that would require occupying that zone, either by themselves of through some proxy (SLA). Presently, they are struggling to eliminate Hamas (who are not as well equipped as Hezbollah) in Gaza (365 skm). Do Israeli really fancy fighting Hezbollah over 4000 skm?
It would depend on the nature of any Israeli incursion. Despite greater numbers, Hezbollah in south Lebanon is a conventional target, and therefore much more susceptible to Israeli force. Gaza’s urban setting has a real levelling effect. Lebanon’s terrain isn’t ideal, but it is nowhere near the challenge of a city fight.
I don’t think Israeli action is necessarily going to be limited to air strikes. They would appear to have been building up artillery stocks in the area (minimal counterbattery), which doctrine would suggest means preparing those units to act as fire support. With units pulling out of Gaza now, the narrative presented is that they are all being released to civvy street, but that isn’t confirmed yet.
Reading all the tactical stuff about who has what strength and who has more firepower is sickening.
It’s all disgusting cold blooded murder and needs to stop now.
Anything else is equivocal bullshit.
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I don’t think it is bullshit. It is about the now very real and imminent danger of regional expansion. The US are eyeing direct action against the Houthis, and South Lebanon is teetering on the brink of the most serious conflict since 2006.
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