I can’t see that happening - Egypt in particular is just not going to give on that resistance. The next step is an enforcement resolution, at which point the US will face another huge question. But Israel has to be weighing up the risks of getting to that question.
You may be right about Egypt, but the Palestinian people will have to go somewhere. And Israel is increasingly not shy in talking about the value of sea front property on the sunny Gaza strip.
In my opinion, it’s not about a land grab really. That is more a conseqeuence if so than an aim.
I’ve been following this disaster extremely closely ever since I saw the Hamas attack live (yes, I watched many of the uploaded videos before they were deleted off twitter 1 and 2 days after). It was clear to me then (and I made a very conscious decison the day after to not at all write about the upcoming war on this forum, since I could not have reported about both that and the Russian invasion at the same time and still have had a life), that the consequence would be full war and not a mere military incursion of the type of Cast lead.
Now, to write about why Hamas launched the attack (there are several reasons), what possible ISR and Pal civilian response Hamas wanted to see (Pal and regional response imperrative in understanding why Hamas launched the war, because make no mistake, the scope of the Hamas operation made war inevitable and it knew so before they pulled the trigger) and the why the Israeli response is still going on, relatively aimlessly, I don’t want to do; it is too time consuming, would take me hours and requires several pages.
But as to the actual, real, ISR goal regarding this war, it is my sincere opinion that their chief political aim, which I wrote on twitter long ago, is to traumatise Gazans so much that they never, ever will want to express support for a similiar attack on ISR ever again, at least not for many generations. Then everything else, after that, is imo relatively ad-hoc and it is clear that there is no structured ISR strategy in this war at all, as to how to win it politically. They started the campaign claiming they were to eradicate Hamas, remove them from power, remove all of their control over Gazan society. They have inflicted massive logistical, structural and manpower losses on Hamas, but the large collateral, the methodical destruction of universities and colleges, of civil society; it serves the purpose of inflicting trauma. Partly this is need for revenge initially, but primarily I think it is calculated collective punishment to make sure that Hamas can never ever be able to sell the war as a victory to its own people and that the Oct 7 attack, initially celebrated by many Gazans, is remembered as the start of a Nakba and not anything positive 20 years from now.
Now, of course there are military tactical goals involved, but IDF fights with no clear strategy, just invades, then retreates, then invade the same area again when Hamas comes back (and civilians). There is no attempt at conventionally holding territory like you will see when an army tries to invade another country. It is a series of clearing operations. IDF only holds small areas. It’s been many months since they withdrew most of their forces from Gaza.
Now, much can be written about the ISR government and particularly Netanyahu, who is politically dead and uses this aimless war to prolong his life, much could also probably be written about Hamas (they are not imbeciles despite being religious fascistoid maximalists, they invited this war, though perhaps the response was a bit more dramatic than they hoped for, despite everyone and their dog knowing that the current ISR pol regime is as far right as you come with actual 2 fascist party in gov) and their political war aim; but from the ISR side I think inflicting Trauma is the main aim, much more than actually getting hostages back. ISR is not interested in having occupational responsibility for the large Gazan population, which it would have if conquest was the goal, and its been many, many months since ISR understood that, no, it’s not possible to ethnically cleanse the population and send them into Sinai to get rid of them. Since they can’t get rid of the Gazan population, they also can’t occupy it. But they can punish them. Inflict trauma so they do not dare to support a similar attack again. It’s a, in my opinion, concious attempt at creating a Cultural Memory of a Nakba.
As for the actual war, currently Israel is losing the war. It is winning it extremely hard tactically, of course (taking almost no military losses, a mere 300 during all these months), but wars are not won by killing and killing isn’t strategy. Only if Israel comes out of this war in a geopolitically stronger position than on 7th of Oct, can it claim it won. This is not the current trajectory. It has squandered almost all of its sympathy after oct 7 months ago and lately there is even American movement. Trajectory is not in ISR favour. The ISR far right gov have arguably made ISR politically weaker than ever, it is now almost alone; and alone it won’t last in it’s current shape or form (without US support they would have had to compromise on a hell of a lot, since " regional security" and not solving the social and political issues with Palestinians, would then be incredibly much costlier). Trajectory is Strategic Defeat.
That does not however mean that Hamas is winning. It is clearly not. By staging an insane attack that was extraordinary callous in it’s brutality against what is a completely superior opponent, it proved to regimes all over the world that they can not be regarded as “rational”, making it very unlikely that it will be bussiness like before with many governments. If it is one thing Geopolitics abhorrs, it is irrational and unpredictable actors. So while Arab governments condemns for a variety of reasons, there is extremely little sympathy for Hamas, which is a political defeat. Hamas may however have achieved part of what clearly was one of its war goals, which was the ruin of the ISR-Arab approachment through Saudi and American mediation. But that is scant victory for a Gaza in ruins and people traumatised for generations and may not last forever as Saudis like money.
But yes, trauma. The main goal imo, is to make sure that Hamas won’t be able to spin it like one, which Hezbollah managed in 2006. I don’t think Netanyahu by now, thinks he can remove Hamas as a social or political force anymore in Gaza. That requires an alternative Gazan government that is not viewed as traitors by Gazans and good luck with that…
PS. I fucking hate this conflict. I have studied it in college as part of my history studies, it was one of my subjects. I used to hang on a Israeli-Palestinian peace forum when I was in my 20s. I have been interested in the region and the conflict since I was a child and peace and particularly normalisation, is today further away than ever in my life time.
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The analogy I made in October was the Roman Empire’s Rhine frontier. They never believed they could have peace. They simply believed if they burned 100 villages for every one of theirs raided, they could earn a generation of fear and relative quiet. There was never a strategy.
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If Gantz goes, that’s it for Netanyahu. People may not be impressed by Biden’s dynamism or pace, but he has long had a reputation for winning the political dogfights.
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and yet they are all too eager to build settlements on the West Bank…
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It was a call for a ceasefire, not an imposition or enforcement resolution. Predictably enough, it actually makes the negotiation of terms of a ceasefire harder. Hamas sees less need to compromise, Israel sees more urgency in achieving war aims before the next step can happen.
I didn’t expect much from that resolution to be honest. Beyond its symbolic function (the world condemns the carnage), it is of no use if those currently exerting genocide have no willingness to stop.
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Israel 
has recalled its negotiators from Doha.
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That resolution may well bring down Netanyahu’s government inside the week.
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If it does, then it will be a great achievement. Fingers crossed for that. But this leech has survived so many things that I can’t imagine him going without another nasty fight. The day he isn’t prime minister anymore, justice will call for him to reopen his corruption cases. That will motivate him to stay in power at all costs.
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I think more than this resolution (or more importantly the shift in US position), the proposed law to draft ultra-orthodox Jews into military service is going to put an end to Netanyahu, at least temporarily.
Actually, that may save him. Gantz’ party is implacably opposed to that law, and if they leave the coalition his government may come down. His party is also not generally known for their benign views on Palestinians. The timing of that law cannot be seen as an accident, it is coalition discipline. Netanyahu is sending a clear shot across the bow of the religious right to remind them that there are some issues that the nationalist right can agree with other parties on.
If Gantz walks out, the law might proceed without Netanyahu - the sentiment that the chickenhawks should not be exempted from military service is fairly widely held in Israel, and the exemption is bitterly resented.
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But, aren’t the extremist parties opposed to this law? Without their support, no matter Gantz stays or not, can the government survive?
Good post.
Land grab is central to Israeli persona. The withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 was a strategic move to focus on a more lucrative prize, the West Bank. Israel can squeeze the 3.1 million Palestinians into half of the West Bank and can still end up with a booty of over 3,000 square km, that’s (almost) ten times the size of Gaza. Gaza was too small, too crowded, and too militant. What’s more, unlike the West Bank, there wasn’t the option to squeeze the population into one part and annex the rest. The only option was to drive the Palestinians into Egypt which was a non-starter.
But October 7 has given Israel renewed hope of occupying Gaza. The rumors and rhetoric demanding the Palestinians to be driven into Sinai never went away but actually persistently grew. Not to mention the even more weird and sinister proposal to relocate the Palestinians to countries like Chad and etc.