All the while Israel and US is ramping up efforts for a war with Iran 
I guess everyone knows by now, but various intelligence services warns that an Iranian retaliatory attack targeting Israel, using missiles and drones, is likely imminent tonight or in the coming days. Many governments have issued travel warnings to Israel including my own.
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Do you think it will be a direct attack on Israel?
If so, probably aimed at a military target?
Or would the target be infrastructure in nature?
I very much doubt the target would be civilian, at this stage, as that would escalate quickly. We still might get there though, and this could turn into a regional war as it has been brewing for a while.
If Iran attacks Israel (retaliation for killing the generals) would the iron dome be effective? Or would that be the purpose of multiple missiles/drones, so some get through?
Finally, what would Israelâs response be? Would they reply and send missiles at Iran itself? And would America get involved, as they have lots of bases and aircraft carrier groups in the region?
I am concerned about this, tbh. It seems poised for escalation.
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What intel services and analysts say/leak, is what one could expect. That Iran will be careful to not hit civilian targets and aim for purely military ones, that it will not hit US, purely Israel and that they will calibrate attack so US wonât get involved. Thatâs what they say and leak, but they donât know 100 percent, I am pretty sure. Makes sense to me too.
But of course, no one truly actually knows. What they say, is that there are signs of preparation, rethoric is there, stated aims there and that the assumption is that an Iranian attack is likely. Exactly what they will attack is speculative but, certain assumptions can of course be made.
Also, very high risk of attack and assumption that attack is imminent and that it will involve around 100 drones and missiles isnât the same as that actually happening, itâs just that CIA and others are making educated guesses due to potential Iranian preparation they observe, former modus operandi and more etc.
Only the Iranian commander who plans the attack and a select few others, probably know for sure, and Khamenei rubber stamps date and time etc. The rest is educated extrapolation, but thatâs usually how Intel Services work tbh.
Assumption that attack is imminent is based on suspected intention (which has been suspected by most analysts ever since ISR killed those general) but now probably movement and that the time is favourable. But the latter details, i cannot know since I have no way of knowing that.
And the Israeli response to an attack, I donât know either.
I am assuming they want to exploit it politically, almost definately bomb Iran in return. Probably depends on damage and casualties too.
Obviously they want, as they have wanted for decades, to hit Iranian nuclear program, but that may not be what they do, as it may be tricky and very risky. There are most definately other targets Israel could strike in return as well, but again, probably depends on damage from Iranian retaliation and etc. Body counts and damage create itâs own escalation spiral. If no one dies, you donât have to do much unless you want too, if many die and much damage is taken, you are politically forced to strike harder. Itâs how it usually works. Itâs why actors that want to beat each other up but doesnât want actual war calibrate attacks
I donât know. First something has to happen. Now, an iranian attack is just expected. There is still a slim chance that it wonât happen. I donât know. Weâll see.
Analysts and journalists are still speculating that a potential target would be Israeli Embassy. Personally, I thinks lazy thoughts. Attacking an Embassy will unnecessarily drag a third country into the dynamics. Besides, any killing of civilians is likely to give Israel some sympathy.
Thanks for the response. Like everyone else Iâm watching, and Iâm concerned by the potential for escalation.
It is frustrating because Israel has got too big for its boots and America should have reined it in some time ago. When there is balance in the region, the prospects for relative peace are higher. But when one of the powers - in this case Israel - edges ahead in capability, and that coincides with a leader like Netanyahu, it is a recipe for disaster. Iran has a lot of military capability too, and they will not enjoy getting publicly slapped around by Israel, so will respond.
Hereâs hoping it will be proportionate, and it draws a line under this particular episode.
And in the meantime, the poor Palestinians. My heart breaks.
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NOT a good sign
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MeanwhileâŚ
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So it begins.
Didnât think it would come to this point. But humans are fuckwits, especially those in power
I think October 7 demonstrated that Iran and proxies have a very good understanding of Israeli defenses now. The âiron domeâ is effective, probably fairly well protected against electronic countermeasures, but we now know it can be overwhelmed. Hezbollah is quite capable of putting up enough low-value shorter range fire in terms of rockets and shells to allow a more serious Iranian weapon to penetrate within the cloud. In particular, there is ample evidence to suggest that Hamasâ attack understood the targeting algorithm of Israeli defences. Now, it may have changed to reflect those lessons learned, but saturation is a difficult thing to overcome.
In particular, we can expect that Iran has learned a great deal from the combat deployment of the Shahed-136 against various air defence systems in the Ukraine.
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Iâm more worried about what Israel would do to Lebanon.
Not that Israel has restrained itself. But the fall out of the carnage from Lebanon could further destabilize a lot of other countries in that area (which arenât really stable at all to begin with)
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While I still think Iran doesnât have the capability to hurt Israel too much , the conflict will only serve to fuck up the areas which are already well fucked.
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14000 tonnes. Thatâs probably enough for a couple of weeks for ENTIRE Gaza.
There has been detected movement of Iranian missiles and aircraft now (sources to CNN). A significant barrage of cruise missiles is expected if they strike.
(that doesnât mean that they are about to strike though, but there are visible preparations for combat and dispersal of aircrafts).
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This is really the reign of warmongers in all involved countries. Fuckwits.
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Very high profile Iranian special forces operation in the Oman bay, near the straits of Hormuz. Theyâve captured a Portugese flagged ship owned by an Israeli bussiness man, using guardsmen rapelling down from helicopters.
We are in a very âinterestingâ escalation dynamic.
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Note to Iran - Pakistan is right on your borders and despite them being close to China , they do have a history of keeping US troops on their borders. Especially given their dire economic situation.
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