NHK’s coverage of the war is surprisingly not just balanced, but rather empathetic.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1779202959349305540
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1779201671207301280
He is on the way to the “Situation Room”: He was only on vaccation 1 hour away, so this means they think he is needed to take decisions possibly tonight.
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1779192996874920045
The obvious worry is that Iran will feel that they may need to defeat Israeli air defences to instill deterrence (which they can do in an alpha strike relatively easily, make no mistake, though this means a large expenditure of missile stocks) and launch a much too large barrage that forces war. Difficult calculation. If the barrage is too small, ISR will defeat it, take no or negligable losses and it will be heralded as an Israeli victory and an Iranian defeat. If too big, causing too much damage and losses, it’s a full regional war. Iran will obviously likely aim for middle ground, but that’s a very narrow path and in the past, some of their missiles have also failed and landed in unfortunate locations in Iraq (not the ones used against US, but other types used against Kurds and ISIS).
Israel isn’t a very big territory. I find it quite likely that missiles and drones will be aimed at ISR military bases located relatively far from population centres, but this is a narrow path, easy to step into the abyss with such an attack.
I worry a lot about this exactly. Extremely difficult to calibrate such an attack when ISR air is on highest alert.
US says they expect the Iranian retaliatory attack on Sunday morning. This is what they think at least.
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Government bunkers not good enough for him 
They are good, but they might not have champaigne and party showers. I mean, his wife is a notorious corrupt hedonist.
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There’s going to be an escalation. I blame US (and its proxies) for that. They knew Israel is looking for an escalation to shift focus from from its atrocities in Gaza (and West Bank), and they simply indulged Israel. Frankly, I’m surprised that Iran has shown so much restraint. I expected them to respond in January when Israel killed those IRGC Generals in Damascus.
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Iran has reportedly launched dozens of drones towards Israel. Why did Iran used drones (150km/h) which will not only take hours to reach Israel but can be easily intercepted?
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Exactly it’s a cynical ploy.
The only thing I doubt is the rationale. I think hardliners see an opportunity at the moment
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Attack has commenced. I think this is first wave, drones are very slow. I would calibrate missile launch to hit at same time. So not strange there is no missile launch…yet.
Likely because they are slow, so in a calibrated attack, you launch them hours prior to missiles. Then missiles later, timed to hit at approx same time. Or…or…the entire attack is fake to not lose face (I dont think so).
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These are cruise missiles
Video
https://twitter.com/IrnaEnglish/status/1779263628744524022
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1779266070173397445
US expects Iran to launch around 500 drones snd missiles.
Worryingly, Iran promises to also launch on Sunday morning ON TOP of current waves of attack
US expects Iran not to attack US targets (garantere you this is conveyed).
Seems I was likely correct about the targeting I mentioned above. Iran likely careful to avoid civilian built up areas.
https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1779267418457546919
Also Isr channel 12 reports:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1779269387679080511
Israel denounces Iranian strikes on its civilian population.
Errrrr……
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Seems missiles on the way, are slower cruise missiles and not ballistic.
Ballistic missiles, if sequences for attack, should have ideally been fired a few min ago. Maybe later. Maybe never. Tricky, since they are so hard to shoot down and Iran clearly doesn’t want to force war, but establish serious deterrence. It may faily, they may have calibrated attacks wrongly so it¨s too effective; but it crystal clear that this is not the kind of strike you would make if you wanted to cause maximum military damage etc., which you want in a war. This is in between a minor strike and a war-type alpha strike. Medium-low for what iran can do in a real war…
Iran offers ISR a conclusion to hostilities if ISR so chooses:
https://twitter.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053
Which is hardly a surprise to me. Pretty much what I have written for days.
Also, perhaps not surprisingly, ISR does not want it to conclude and does not want Iran to be able to establish deterrence:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1779275816045621347
So this is very dangerous now, depending on tomorrow.
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Middle of no where as I claimed was likely:
Up to ISR now. If it is politically convenient for them to strike back hard, this could still be war. Wait and see. Important to see what damage and loss of life, if any, there is in the end.
This is very bad in any case and I fear the dynamic now is a powerful ISR response, which again forces Iran to respond even harder. I hope this isn’t the case. But this is a terrible geopolitical flash point now that could explode if either side damages the other too greatly. There is also the stupid aspect of losing face.
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