https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779283840139165990
So far (but too early), missiles are getting shot down. Also reports that Jordan has shot down multiple missiles over their air space, as well as UK and US of course.
Right. The drones took five hours to reach, the cruise missiles took about an hour, while the ballistic missiles will take about 15 mins.
Golan Heights makes sense. Negev is a puzzling. I expected some target in West Bank or Gaza.
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So whens the US attacks in Iran starting? No doubt we will continue to follow them as usual.
War = money to be made, and it seems Iran has been on their books for a while.
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West Bank too many who can die. They are trying not to force war here. Remember, when you shoot down missiles, they land and sometimes cause large damage, as we see in Ukraine almost every day in Kharkiv and elsewhere. Target some where close to civilian or very important infrastructure, and it can cause too much damage and/or kill too many. Iran clearly doesnât want that, because thatâs automatically war (see October 7 Hamas attack).
Iran is here trying to establish deterrance visa vi israel. Israel again, unlikely to allow it, so likely to respond with forceful bombing (which again can trigger next, almost certainly pre-planned by now, more serious Iranian launch if causing too dramatic damage). US here is key, it can influence ISR retaliation targets (maybe, not certain, because ISR known to sometimes give US middle finger).
This can still cause war. We donât know yet how this will be concluded. Escalation spiral is now very dangerous. The End Game is very much unknown. Theoretically, could conclude tonight, but ISR saying they will respond forcefully and we should believe that.
https://twitter.com/ReneDuba/status/1779284924672950326
(I donât think Iran will bomb Jordan for downing missiles, but of course they are pissed off)
Fishy Rishi is already yelping. US, UK, and French aircrafts and warships are reportedly helping Israel.
Iâm not sure of Jordanian involvement. Saw a report that they have denied any participation. But if they do, it would be very foolish as the Jordanians have already been clashing with Police of the war.
ISR sources claiming ballistic missile launch:
https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1779285738837639429
If true, no way on earth then, that this is some how over. Extremely hard to forecast how (if parties are interested), they can deescalatae because ISR will now respond harshly, I think.
Worst case is full war and millions of refugees in the region, but I think that might be staved off (but who knows).
Israel would have escalated even if Iran launched just one drone.
IRGC alligned militias (or Iran, not clear), launching missiles on Iraqi bases.
https://twitter.com/mpdimino/status/1779286829130215699
Thatâs scary.
Iran rolling the dice now really hard.
This is going to be a bonkers night. Let us hope we donât wake up to a raging inferno that makes Gaza look like minor events in the coming months (no disrespect meant to the thousands dead, mutilated and the living who are suffering; but scale is a thing). Potentially, in a Worst Case, this can ignite High Intensity War in quite a lot of countries in the region.
Letâs just hope this doesnât get totally out of control. Only absolute helpless retards would not worry now. Hope for the best, be aware of the chance of the worst.
Yes, but ISR response obviously driven by scale and damage. See Gaza.
Agree ISR wants to come up on top always obviously in a deterrence game.
Unclear if these are just hitting a sand or some sort of installation in the Negev. They are certainly well aimed.
https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1779290961186894013
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Are those drones/missiles, or debris?
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Cruise missiles.
Edit: They seem to be ballistic. So they arrived a bit earlier than I thought.
Another video of the same hits in the Negev (possibly Nevatim air base). Clearly on a ballistic downward trajectory. Hard to shoot down.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779294993259049155
And of course:
https://twitter.com/GravitysRa1nbow/status/1779291466826661888
An Israeli 10 year old kid has been killed so far that we know of. Nothing else that I am aware of, but ISR sometimes waits many hours or even day or two to release possible military losses, if there are in fact any at all
I assume ISR retaliatory attack, already underway. Or will be soon.
ISR said to expect to be engaged in âa fight lasting several days with Iranâ. But controlling it and making sure it will only be days and not weeks or months, might be trickyâŚ
Ironically that kid is an Arab/Bedouin 