I really don’t think that the hostages are why Israel has delayed the attack on Rafah.
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Most likely will slither off to Russia or China and buy them there.
Pressure from the White House and other capitals has been sustained on the matter of an attack on Rafah. Even Israel is entirely aware that the crisis will enter a new stage if/when Rafah is attacked, simply because there is nowhere left to go. Cairo has been influential on this, because Israel fundamentally needs the tacit cooperation of Egypt for the status quo in Gaza. If Egypt is forced to open the border because the alternative is civilians being driven into the Mediterranean, there will be enormous consequences.
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If it allows them to buy weapons that the US refuse to sell to them, why not?
True. He is extraordinarily stupid, so his selfish actions precipitating WW3 is probably something he doesn’t understand.
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In my opinion, those hostages are the biggest Albatros ever. They are worthless in a strategic long term deal. They are a very visible Casus Belli for prolonged warfare. I agree with Arminius. Generally speaking, again my opinion, October 7 is the worst strategic decison and miscalculation Hamas made since it’s creation.
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Yes.
Trying to extend this out long enough for Trump to get back into the white house and give him carte blanche for whatever he wants to do
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A bit off topic, is there any news/update on the attack on the militia base in Iraq? On surface, it looked like an US strike, but they immediately (and pretty vehemently) denied it. Was it Israel? But they focus on Iranian assets in Syria and Lebanon or Syrian or Hezbollah assets.
Is the correct answer.
But I was asking @Arminius , so nul points for you.
Barring Israeli War cabinet accepting this latest deal (I don’t see why they would in their position myself), there is going to be a Rafah operation (likely the final High Intensity Operation in this war, I hope).
Hamas is trying to exctract just too much from their hostages, and I don’t see why Israel would accept the Cease Fire (which would likely lead to end of current hostilities and be prolonged, I suspect, without Hamas releasing absolutely all hostages. But they want many, many more prisoners in return. I don’t think Israel is willing to make such a skewed deal and I think Hamas, again, severely miscalculates it’s political strenght.
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1783522419858083919
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1783522998055481468
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1783524313108218226
The problem is that there are religious and secular fascists and maximalists on both sides, but one of them is much weaker than the other. Thus imo, impasse, unless one yields more than a bit. That likely won’t be the strongest party.
But maybe I am wrong, I certainly could be, since there are other factors involved. Both US and Egypt are kind of jokers. Sissi makes some threats regarding Rafah operation, but I don’t know if Israel believes them tbh.
In any case, in strong US interest to get a Cease Fire asap, but I don’t see heavy pressure on Israel before hostages are released.
Likely one part of the calculus, I agree.
Israel. Almost certainly. US will not strike PMU without getting struck first, they don’t want escalation and conflageration while Israel wanted to send a message and I view it as part of the response to the Iranian response.
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Quoted these from a Guardian article
A senior member of Hamas’s politburo, Khalil al-Hayya, told the Associated Press on Thursday that the group was willing to agree to a five-year ceasefire with Israel and dissolve its military wing with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along borders established before 1967.
The newspaper Haaretz reported that one proposal under discussion by Israeli officials in Tel Aviv was an agreement that would result in all the hostages being released, including men and those of military age, in exchange for a mass release of Palestinian prisoners.
I have read this before but skeptical. I don’t believe it is very serious (the first bit) and I think the Israelis believe it far less than I do but for different reasons. Principally because the conditions they impose are not something Israel would ever accept at current. 1) Right of Return, 2) half of Jerusalem. 3) they are trying to impose conditions (5 year cease fire etc.) as if it is going well for them on the battlefield, which is not usually something a stronger party accepts unless there are other reasons.
With the current Israeli government composition, that is impossible and Hamas knows that of course.
It’s possible however that there may be a release of hundreds of prisoners, maybe a thousand if hamas is lucky (but I think they overplay their hand) for the hostages, but it won’t be popular in israel.
note, not talking about ethics or morality (the campaign should have ended long ago), but what I think is politically possible. But maybe I am wrong. But I doubt Israel is going to let Hamas get good conditions in any form or way. And the reason is that the entire war, I think, is being fought to make sure that Hamas and others never ever considers such an attack ever again (as I have said before, inflict trauma on Hamas and all Gazans, which I again think is just as much the Israeli War Goal as releasing hostages is).
What I am trying to say, I guess, is that a real peace deal where Israel gives territory back and there is some sort of lasting peace, is probably not possible without a long period of detentè, which we certainly don’t have now, or being forced by outside actors like US.
Also, a problem here is that if Israel accepts those Hamas conditions, they become de facto Palestinian Authority, swapping land with israel and etc., “heroically winning a war to end the struggle against israel”. I don’t see that being a scenario many states actually wants to come to pass, including the US. Few wants hamas to represent the Palestinians. And very few wants Hamas to actually win too…
It’s just very complicated. I hate this conflict and I am very disillusioned tbh. I don’t see quick fixes. Everything is very complicated.
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A real peace deal isn’t possible without a change in leadership of Israel and Palestine (both Hamas and Abbas).
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I think the same. I am very pessimistic. I don’t see real peace in this decade at least, probably not the next one either. But obviously in a month or two or three, (hopefully yesterday) there will be some sort of cease fire. But I don’t think it will lead to a political solution at all. Maybe in a couple of decades, maybe US view on conflict very different then etc. Maybe even some strange movement that pushes reconciliation is born in Israel and gets support (strong doubt), who knows the future…
But you know, Oct 7 didn’t help those who dream about a One State, for sure. And 2 State has looked rather dead for decades, so something strange must happen for this to get a real solution. Will take time.
Also, it would be helpful if this guy (Bret) was not employed by the US government anymore but was forced to find another job. He has grand expertise in misreading the region of the Middle East:
https://twitter.com/Dr_Ulrichsen/status/1783530284983402952
Saudi window for doing what it really wants (which of course is normalisation with Israel), extremely narrow now for reasons that many people who are not named Bret, understands well. But who knows, maybe the Saudis think like Bret and make a deal with Israel now at this moment in time, where Israel is more hated than ever in the region. No posibillity of Blow Back, oh no.
