https://twitter.com/LucBernard/status/1784549159015706941
In badly spoken English:
https://twitter.com/ezdubs_bot/status/1784852301213036856/video/1
He says what you would imagine he would say though.
Avoiding a massacre AND bringing down a diabolical regime? Nah, we arenāt so lucky 
.
https://twitter.com/hahellyer/status/1784926554956386762
Hellyer comments on the cease fire offer in a very short BBC clip:
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I am as you know very pessimistic regarding this conflict, due to its extremely complicated and very old deadlock.
But I do think there is movement now and that it is real. I think we are seeing the probable end of active operations if Hamas accepts this deal (because then itās going to be fairly hard for Netanyahuās cabinet to refuse, but maybe I am too optimistic). Problem is, none of us truly knows the details (or maybe some have seen true leaks, I havenāt really).
Itās possible that there will be a Rafah-operation, but I am leaning towards it not happening if Hamas accepts. IDF preparations also extremely visible, blatant negotiation ploy.
On the other hand, there is a major problem that can spoil matters:
Normally, in wars, when Cease Fires are about to go into action, all sides intensify warfare before the final bell (In 2015, Russia even captured Debaltseve and pummeled and killed a hell of a lot of Ukrainian defenders AFTER the Cease Fire was supposed to go into effect, and captured strategic territory), this is the way of things and how it is in almost all wars. Everyone wants to get their final gains, either territorial or taking out targets by shelling.
And that can of course spoil things if the sides are not 100% behind a cease fire.
So if the sides are certain that there will be a Cease Fire, I predict a dramatic intensification of bombing and then a stop, a few minutes after Cease Fire goes into effect. Unless that very bombing spoils things, which I guess is what I am saying might be a possibillity.
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https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1784939288137756851
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1784940960335474842
40 days isnāt that long, so there is maybe some idea to use those 40 days to something very producive in the mind of Blinken etc. But itās shorter than I thought it would be. But Hamas claims itās pretty good, so.
The release of prisoners is more numerous than I had imagined it would be tbh.
Israeli reaction:
https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1784927919162200079
That wasā¦depressing. But I guess thereās little reason for optimism.
I have watched him many times, mostly on France24. He is one of the very few commentators and analysts who is very critical of Israel (and Hamas).
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Yeah, it seems clear that Israel is aware that their international problems will intensify if they attack Rafah, and they are looking for a way out. But there is a strong will inside Israel to go after Hamas in Rafah. The only scenario where I can see this sticking is if the hostages are out of the equation. However, my suspicion is that a lot of Hamasā reticence about the hostages stems from the fact that a lot of them are actually dead - at which point the hardliners in Israel are just going to want blood.
A 40-day pause will potentially save 5,000 Palestinians. Thatās simply from getting bombed or shot. It will improve the famine, hygiene, and healthcare situations which will have more.
I feel Blinken feels that he can cobble together a revitalized Palestinian Authority within that period and can make them a partner in the security situation in Gaza.
I think all the parties are making a fatal mistake (perhaps willingly) in the prisoner exchange. Rather than ordinary Palestinians, some key leader (not just Barghouti and Khalida Jarrar) must be released. Hamas and Abbas are the problems, they will not bring any solution.
Cameron added that he believed the Hamas leadership and those who took part in the 7 October attack inside Israel need to leave Gaza before a two-state political solution is feasible.
I think we see a clue how the Gaza issue is going to evolve.
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In related news , not sure where to keep this. But there will be an element of discontent w r.t German govtās handling of the Israel Palestine crisis
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1784273641657491820?t=KlQffIl1yyv0MgfRF026Uw&s=08
And not endorsing the x channel, just been shared across to me.
Norway 
Yeah, I think that is how it will end too. Exile (then they must hide, since there will be assassins naturally) and IDF withdrawal. But devil is in the details, such as buffer zones, how much Israeli security control and etc. Lots of details, many of whom we donāt know of.
Regarding the Islamist demonstraion sympathetic to ISIS, what struck me when I saw the video and read about it yesterday, was that it was allowed by German police, while pro palestinian demonstrations which German gov fear are too sympathetic to Hamas, gets crached down upon. Itās just an oddity. One would think ISIS sympathisers would at least get the same treatment, but no. Curiosity.
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nothing good comes of ISIS establishing themselves in the west.
Since Merkel went into retirement, Iāve had the feeling that Germany are just tumbling along, without any long-term perspective. I donāt know if that is effectively the case, but it certainly gives that impression.
One could like Merkel or not, and she surely made mistakes, but there was always the underlying feeling that she knew what she was doing. Scholz? I donāt understand at all what heās trying to do, and Iād be curious if anyone in Germany understands this guy and his government. To me, everything in terms of politics looks like a giant cacophony since he took over.
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By not releasing all (and it doesnāt matter if they are corpses honestly), Hamas is making another strategic mistake, I suspect. This makes a long term cease fire harder to accomplish, I suspect:
Unfortunately, I cannot share the article itself.
I think there was a video shared around on X about a Dubai or some prince who said something on the lines about the more extremists coming in from the western European countries.
Stricter immigration controls are needed but I believe any steps now would be akin to bolting the door after the dog has run away.
Yeah, the Merkel government is to blame for the Ostpolitik, but yeah, I think CDU would be more agile and less timid.
Yes, but Hamas is not doing that yet, but hopefully they will soon.
https://twitter.com/LucBernard/status/1784885952613412957