The Middle East Thread

Lasting peace gets negotiated with ideas like fairness and equity. Ceasefires run more to convincing sides to stop shooting for now. The imperative here is to stop Israel’s use of force, in particular pre-empting an attack on Rafah.

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Well the obvious first step to that goal would be to stop arming the use of force/genocide

You don’t think a ceasefire is more urgent?

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:man_facepalming:

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1785340190812189030

This in no way means that this will happen, but we have known it’s a danger since Hezbollah joined. I don’t see it yet. But it remains something that can happen.

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Nothing new, but a fair assessment of the scenario and the belligerents

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I was listening to an interview with the Lebanese trade minister yesterday. He took issue with the description of the conflict as a series of ‘skirmishes’ and said they were already in a state of all out war , the only qualification being that it had not yet extended to the whole of Lebanon. It’s hard to escape the feeling that it’s only a matter of time.

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image

Not sure where this could go but the world can be depressing oftentimes.

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Which countries will blink first and offer asylum to Palestinians?

No doubt the pro-Palestinian protesters will get blamed for this…

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It has been decades and there hasn’t been much blinking yet…

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Actually this is one development that is giving me a little bit of hope. In full solidarity with peaceful student protesters. So many leaders are afraid to speak out, but these students are taking a stand for others, potentially at cost to their own future studies/careers. They give us some hope that a better world is possible

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I am more wary of the positive impact of this personally. But I also recognice that it can be positive for the future, but also negative. The situation at current is quite shit and extremely polarised at many of these universities and demos:
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1785574110505975823
https://twitter.com/AnthonyCabassa_/status/1785573368839987269
https://twitter.com/AnthonyCabassa_/status/1785591873056465136

Jordan has blinked already. My question is rather on whether Egypt will blink now.

Yeah, I don’t think open violence is helpful at all. That will justify suppression. Seems like there was a wave of that today.

The student protests have been peaceful, like other Palestinian solidarity activities. I think the events in NY spooked/incited the parties in UCLA. I think UCLA is an anomaly itself. Just had a quick check and protests/encampments in other campuses are still peaceful.

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It reminds me of the 1968 student riots. Political forces would do well to understand what is happening, and adapt their politics now. As long as they don’t, this is going to spread throughout the world (it already is). Youth is talking.

Of course, there will be some violence involved, which is never helpful, especially when troublemakers are allowed to interfere. But brutal repression will only lead to a growth of these demonstrations, like in 1968.

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Different people, different region, different organisers. People are never the same.

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The peacefulness of the demonstrations is rather overstated, at the low level there have been many ugly incidents - I have direct knowledge of what is going on at McGill and Concordia. But what happened overnight at UCLA is different. That was an orchestrated violent attack on those pro-Palestinian protestors, and the length of time to respond by law enforcement raises nasty questions.

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