The Middle East Thread

I think if you’re expecting CDU to do anything different you’d probably be disappointed…

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@redalways, this discussion would probably digress too far away from the topic at hand.

Here is an excellent article from Harari, the writer of Sapiens, who is Israeli and had close family in a kibboutz when it was attacked on October 7th.

It’s an attempt to present the current situation from the two opposing point of views. How do Palestinians feel about Nakba, their land being taken away by settlers and security forces, and now this awful carnage in Gaza? How do Jews in Israel feel about the surrounding Arab states, about the fact that they expelled all their Jewish populations between 1956 and 1967 (roughly 800k people, whose descendants form now a good part of Israel’s population), and what they’d do to them if they had the power to drive them out? Finally, the article attempts to show a way out of this mutual nightmare. It’s well worth a read.

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Thanks for the recommendation.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-03/gaza-faces-extreme-heat-worsening-conditions-for-palestinians-displaced-by-war?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcxNDczNTgzNSwiZXhwIjoxNzE1MzQwNjM1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTQ1dHV1RUMEFGQjQwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJGMkY1NTFERTc4ODA0RkJBOTk5NEFBMTQ5RTM1NjQ3RCJ9.gXD0huNO8ykQdvGngH2H82tue_v_KhLKu89bbweJ0A8

Bloody foreigners.

It was a good read and the sentiment expressed was a noble one , but you just can’t get away from the current reality of it all. I’ve followed the conflict for about thirty years now and was at one time an active member of the PSC. Before this latest act of horror by Hamas and the inevitable over reaction by Israel , I had already given up on the idea of a two state solution. I have no idea what happens next but what I do know is that the conflict has sunk into a competition of increasing and never ending cruelty and I am long beyond despair tbh.

Sometimes, I feel really scared for these courageous Jews who are sticking their necks out.

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Meanwhile…

It’s no longer looming, it’s full blown.

We regret cabinet decision to close Al Jazeera in Israel. A free & independent media is essential to ensuring transparency & accountability. Now, even more so given tight restrictions on reporting from Gaza. Freedom of expression is a key human right. We urge govt to overturn ban

— UN Human Rights (@UNHumanRights) May 5, 2024

I wonder how much this step will hamper their coverage of the atrocities in Gaza.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1787090843255374294

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https://twitter.com/Martin_Indyk/status/1787143957249462641

(not sure I would say gloves off, but interesting news never the less)

Another step on the road to totalitarianism.

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https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1786900075106717999

Not really news to some of us, since IDF have barely troops in Gaza and doesn’t really try to occupy. It is cleanse, withdraw, cleanse withdraw. Will accomplish little but killing people and destroying property in the end. Obviously, some “important targets” will be killed in this manner. Like in Shifa hospital where they did in fact manage to kill a few Hamas tactical leaders, since the hospital op seemingly surprised Hamas. But none of those ppl are irreplacable. 2 weeks ago, intelligence analyis was that 20 percent of Hamas military strenght was destroyed, after all this time. Israel itself claims 40 %, but…

Such a stupidly fought war, morality aside.

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https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1787188263175786878
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1787188824184848596

Fatah criticises Hamas :man_facepalming:

How cursed are the Palestinians to be stuck between Fatah and Hamas.

Israel has ordered evacuation of 100,000 Palestinians from the eastern neighbourhood of Rafah. This may be the prelude of an Israeli offensive on Rafah, or a limited operation in response to the recent attack on Karem Salom Crossing.

Meanwhile…

An anonymous Israeli official with knowledge of the ceasefire negotiations has told the New York Times that the two sides were close to a deal a couple of days ago but that comments by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Rafah pushed Hamas to harden its demands in a bid to protect the city from an Israeli ground invasion.

It is the prelude. But Hamas gave the Israeli cabinet an argument, and they now claim that Hamas sabotaged a deal with their attack and etc.
https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1787387160816984303

Also, Clarkson makes some sensible points here:
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1787392214198346097
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1787393623228575937
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1787395055558279188

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1787378448903598315

The offensive is likely going to be in stages, in sectors (thus the limited evacuation), designed to open up for Hamas cocessions and a cease fire:
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1787352736943481189
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1787484416119390288

This is the most telling of Clarkson’s comments:

7 October shattered the self-image of the IDF and Israeli political class. Both convinced themselves that Israel is only safe if Hamas is annihilated and IRGC humiliated

External concern from US and EU officials, analysts and activists could never mitigate such existential panic

I was recently asked ‘what could Israel have done differently after October 7?’ by someone avowedly pro-Israeli, and I cannot say I have a good answer. An urban guerilla war in one of the most densely populated areas in the world is just a different kind of nightmare. The only ‘solutions’ I see as possible are ‘meta’ level ones like a robust peace process between two good faith actors, when I am not sure there is even one.

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So basically, we’re stuck in this situation in part due to small penises.

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