@redalways, this discussion would probably digress too far away from the topic at hand.
Here is an excellent article from Harari, the writer of Sapiens, who is Israeli and had close family in a kibboutz when it was attacked on October 7th.
It’s an attempt to present the current situation from the two opposing point of views. How do Palestinians feel about Nakba, their land being taken away by settlers and security forces, and now this awful carnage in Gaza? How do Jews in Israel feel about the surrounding Arab states, about the fact that they expelled all their Jewish populations between 1956 and 1967 (roughly 800k people, whose descendants form now a good part of Israel’s population), and what they’d do to them if they had the power to drive them out? Finally, the article attempts to show a way out of this mutual nightmare. It’s well worth a read.
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Thanks for the recommendation.
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It was a good read and the sentiment expressed was a noble one , but you just can’t get away from the current reality of it all. I’ve followed the conflict for about thirty years now and was at one time an active member of the PSC. Before this latest act of horror by Hamas and the inevitable over reaction by Israel , I had already given up on the idea of a two state solution. I have no idea what happens next but what I do know is that the conflict has sunk into a competition of increasing and never ending cruelty and I am long beyond despair tbh.
Sometimes, I feel really scared for these courageous Jews who are sticking their necks out.
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Meanwhile…
It’s no longer looming, it’s full blown.
We regret cabinet decision to close Al Jazeera in Israel. A free & independent media is essential to ensuring transparency & accountability. Now, even more so given tight restrictions on reporting from Gaza. Freedom of expression is a key human right. We urge govt to overturn ban
— UN Human Rights (@UNHumanRights) May 5, 2024
I wonder how much this step will hamper their coverage of the atrocities in Gaza.
https://twitter.com/Martin_Indyk/status/1787143957249462641
(not sure I would say gloves off, but interesting news never the less)
Another step on the road to totalitarianism.
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https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1786900075106717999
Not really news to some of us, since IDF have barely troops in Gaza and doesn’t really try to occupy. It is cleanse, withdraw, cleanse withdraw. Will accomplish little but killing people and destroying property in the end. Obviously, some “important targets” will be killed in this manner. Like in Shifa hospital where they did in fact manage to kill a few Hamas tactical leaders, since the hospital op seemingly surprised Hamas. But none of those ppl are irreplacable. 2 weeks ago, intelligence analyis was that 20 percent of Hamas military strenght was destroyed, after all this time. Israel itself claims 40 %, but…
Such a stupidly fought war, morality aside.
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Fatah criticises Hamas 
How cursed are the Palestinians to be stuck between Fatah and Hamas.
Israel has ordered evacuation of 100,000 Palestinians from the eastern neighbourhood of Rafah. This may be the prelude of an Israeli offensive on Rafah, or a limited operation in response to the recent attack on Karem Salom Crossing.
Meanwhile…
An anonymous Israeli official with knowledge of the ceasefire negotiations has told the New York Times that the two sides were close to a deal a couple of days ago but that comments by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Rafah pushed Hamas to harden its demands in a bid to protect the city from an Israeli ground invasion.
The offensive is likely going to be in stages, in sectors (thus the limited evacuation), designed to open up for Hamas cocessions and a cease fire:
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1787352736943481189
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1787484416119390288
This is the most telling of Clarkson’s comments:
7 October shattered the self-image of the IDF and Israeli political class. Both convinced themselves that Israel is only safe if Hamas is annihilated and IRGC humiliated
External concern from US and EU officials, analysts and activists could never mitigate such existential panic
I was recently asked ‘what could Israel have done differently after October 7?’ by someone avowedly pro-Israeli, and I cannot say I have a good answer. An urban guerilla war in one of the most densely populated areas in the world is just a different kind of nightmare. The only ‘solutions’ I see as possible are ‘meta’ level ones like a robust peace process between two good faith actors, when I am not sure there is even one.
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So basically, we’re stuck in this situation in part due to small penises.
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Israel needs “help” from friendly states to change direction. Netanyahu’s government is a nightmare when it comes to various nationalist and settler interests and is not the easiest to politically navigate. Then you have his fear of corruption investigation too.
But yes, the Israeli political echelon and security apparatus is in sync and agrees on on the goals, but the road to them, is all over the place and I think it will lead to strategic defeat in the end because they have no clear formulated road/strategy (loss of standing, loss of influence, less security over all).
And paranoia. Many, I think, underestimate the quite real paranoia Israelis have of their own survival. Their paranoia is sometimes scoffed at, many people think they use it as an excuse, but it’s real. The Holoaust and the history of the Jewish People is a ghost from the past that influences their thinking and acting, imo.
The Hamas oct 7 attack really struck something deep in them, like Clarkson notes above too. It was always going to bring about a very “wild” reaction. They are convinced they have to instill deterrence through trauma (I think) and massive devastation and loss of assets for their enemies, so such an attack is never again repeated, and they ideally of course wants to completely annihilate Hamas.
The latter (destroying hamas is part of the “road is all over the place”, since it’s pretty clear that with current strategy they won’t defeat that organisation).
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