An exhaustive look here at the options for a post-conflict Gaza ;
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https://x.com/prem_thakker/status/1820512918200303858?s=46&t=wYI1UQq4Zm7qgLRSA8YMdw
The most disturbing aspect of this, is that there is not protests on the streets of Israel.
Horrible things happen in war. Mistakes happen. Heat of moment, self defence etc. War crimes often rationalised because they are the enemy. A plane dropping a bomb is somewhat detached, civilian losses caught in crossfire.
However systematic dehumanising abuse is a clear line in the ethics of war. Itâs why the photos taken in Iraq prison by US soldiers were so shocking. Itâs barbaric, and undermines legitimacy of actions. Systematic crimes being performed with impunity or worse under orders.
The mental gymnastics to ignore or rationalise twisted acts of evil akin to a psycho kid burning animals with a magnifying glass is horrifying.
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Feels as though the people who would protest have already been locked up or otherwise ostracised from society. Wasnât there something from the start of the war where anti-war protesters were getting arrested?
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Yes, several people lost their jobs, among them professors at universities, and a lot of protesters on the street were arrested as well. Letâs face it, Israel have said good-bye to democracy and are now a dictatorship, at least as long as the far right around Netanyahou remains in power.
That being said, a lot of people continue to protest against the government, even though the motives for wanting Netanyahou removed isnât war crimes in Gaza or pity for the Palestinians, but the fact that he hasnât been able to get back the hostages, and his general impopularity which predates the latest war.
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A very specific window, which indicates that it might be a bad night (or interesting if you are Chinese).
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1821223149167329772
When the fuck did it happen 
Indeed.Haniyeh was a legitimate target in every possible way, but that does not mean it is wise or prudent to kill him and certainly not when he is in Iran at a presidential inaugeration.
Israel could have killed him in Qatar whenever they wanted. They killed him in Iran to provoke something which would not have been provoked if he had been killed in Qatar. Worth noting, I think.
That having been said, I personally think it is perfectly fine that he is dead and has been killed, but you cannot think about such matters in that kind of vacum. Israel certainly weighted the consequences of it and they may have succeeded given that Sinwar is now also the political leader of Hamas and they also succeeded in completely humiliating Iran and Hezbollah. Fact is, as I saidd months ago, ISR has been training to invade Lebanon for more than half a year now. So Hezzbollah and Iran must be cautious in their response to not play into the hands of the Israeli security cabinet. Give them a Casus Belli, and, well, with politics being what it is in israel, theyâll use it.
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I mean, I want Putin dead. But I donât want Ukraine to kill him and I donât want a NATO country to kill him. Because consequences.
I heard about the Haniyeh assassination and waiting for the fallout. Iâm shocked because Hamas put Sinwar in charge. I hoped someone moderate, like Khaled Mashal.
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Mashal is out of the organisation and hasnât been near power for a while. Iran does not accept him after broke with Assad. Iran pushed for Sinwar, who is the leader closest to Iran and is completely Shaheed this and that. Grim. All of it is grim. Internet is full of bizarre fan boys saying âhaha, Netanyahu will regret this, now real man Sinwar is in chargeâ, totally disregarding the consequences for actual Palestinians. Sinwar is the largest albatross I can think of tbh.
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Whatâs the chances Iran attacks Israel tonight?
Guessing itâs because they have no skin in the game.
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Moderately high, I would say. That NOTAM is very specific.
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Donât the Israelis have some kind of treaty with Qatar now after the Abrams Accords ? The entire Hamas leadership is based there but they havenât struck there yet.
Sure, they have deals, but it would still be FAR less of an escalation than killing him in Iran in the manner they did. That man was traveling around in public and has been for years. If I wanted to kill someone, I would probably not kill them in a way that humiliated and forced their ally to strike me with ballistic missiles if I had not calculated that it could be a good thing for me strategically further down the lineâŚ
⌠and thatâs precisely why they did. 
The advance warning to the Egyptians suggests that Iran hasnât taken the bait and will respond in a calibrated and cautious manner like they did in April after the Damascus embassy bombing.
Whatâs your sources saying? Will it be another attack like last time where Iran fires rockets just to say âlook, we fired rockets but the iron dome / US shot them downâ or will this be a much more direct attack by Iran and their proxyâs?
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I donât follow anyone who actually dares say that, but an ex-CIA expert i follow claims that there is rum-int (which is rumour intelligence so not reliable) that Hezbollah is irritated at Iran because Iran, according to this rum-int, wants a lesser response than what Hezbollah envisoned and that hezbollah might make some solo-escalation because of it. The initial intelligence was that Iran would strike massively, far, far larger strike than in April.Still in all likelyhood going to be larger, but seems like they want to avoid war. They have, after all, waited for 9 days untill US air defences have been shipped into the region and at full alert, which again makes no sense if they wanted to do maximum damage.
'But I donât know. None of that is close to certain. Just informed speculation.
I kind of feel like Iran DOES NOT want a war. But theyâre kind of putting themselves in a bad spot with their proxyâs. Israel and the US want a war to break out. Wonder if theyâll let a few rockets get through on purpose. Crazy times ahead.