I think he seeks to engineer the type of strategic victory where he manages to come out of it a hero. For that to happen, they need to defeat Hezbollah properly and ideally destroy the Iranian nuclear program. And for the latter to happen, he needs American help. To get American help, Iran must attack Israel on a significant scale. To defeat Hezbollah properly, Hezbollah must launch a large strike (ISR has bombed ammo depots in the previously safe Bekaa Valley now 2 days in arow, causing significant damage to Hezbollah miliary capacity and they keep degrading Hezbollahās ground forces with daily tit for tat attacks).
I donāt think he will achieve this, but I do certainly think he is more than intelligent enough (he is as we know, very intelligent) to know that sooner or later he is out of office, so he is on a timer and the clock is ticking. But for Netanyahu and much of the Israeli security establishment, Gaza is a side show and seen as a satelite or projection of Iranian military and political power. A long term cease fire is negative for them for several reasons, but one of them is also because it will remove the conditions they would need to get a war with Iran with a proper Casus Belli (ISR cannot attack Iran out of the blue, they need proper casus belli)
If yes, itās absolutely despicable, but just the sort of thing youād expect from him. 2.1 million people suffering and dying through war for four further months is ok for him if he can gain something from it.
If this turns out to be true, only that would be enough justification to politically finish him off. I hope that the democrats will make best use of it in order to show how morally bankrupt he is.
The New Republic is difficult to nail down ideologically, it has moved around quite a bit over the years and has been frankly erratic in the past 12 years or so. But they are a serious outfit, certainly no tabloid.
It reminds me of when he was leaning on the GOP to not do a deal with the Dems over the border. For Trump it is never about helping an issue or solving it.
The ONLY calculus isā¦
What will make me look good?
He is morally bankrupt, and in a normal world he would have been sunk many times over already, politically speaking.
We are not living in a normal world with him, so I expect this to barely register a footnote in the overall political discourse, even if it is atrocious.
The only thing is that the targetted killing of Hamiyeh is equal parts of taking out a Hamas leader and also sending a message to Iran that their leadership isnāt untouchable too.
Israelās got cultivated assets in Iran (probably with the help of CIA and other intelligence agencies). Iran can attack , but Israelās response is something that will absolutely push the region over into a perpetual war.
Thereās very much a LFC-Suarez* āhe may be a cunt, but heās our cunt, so he gets a pass from meā thinking amongst Republican supporters. Teflon Trump.
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*Sorry I realise this probably triggers a few people but I couldnāt help myself.
I think so too. Presumably they are racing to get nuclear weapons so thereās more oomph behind their conventional weapons. (I wonāt get into Trumpās folly in ruining a nuanced and carefully negotiated international situation with Iran that he inherited).
Israel has nukes, which is why it throws its weight around in the region, and asymmetrically smashes people.
I wish the world didnāt have nukes as they are a grave threat, and it feels like we are getting closer to someone using them for the first time since the end of WWII.
Still, one lesson weāve seen over the last 80 years is that the one thing that keeps it in check is balance. If both opponents are carrying a big stick they are more likely to be restrained in going all the way.
At present there is no balance to Israel in the region.
When Obama made that deal with Iran, I thought that Iran having the nuclear weapon could be actually a good thing, as it would force Israel to stop their recklessness, and would also force Iran to become more responsible in regard to their foreign policy. But since Trump destroyed that deal, Iran have become increasingly unhinged.
As you say, one other nation in the Milddle East should have the atomic bomb, to restore a balance of terror. Who could that be? Egypt maybe?
The most rational and stable country in the middle east at the moment would possibly be Jordan, but:
1 - would they want to be used as someone elseās pawn in that way?
2 - Do they even have any interest in being the regionsā counterweight to Israel. They have had a fairly respectful relationship with Israel since the peace treaty in the 90ās
3 - Israel appears to like having Jordan as one of their go-to peace negotiators with the rest of the region. It seems as if that is one of the stronger more dependable diplomatic relationships that Israel has.
Good call. Jordan is a very small country, although Israel is admittedly also a very small country. There are a lot of Palestinians in Jordan, so that would be interesting.
Otherwise, maybe it should be Turkey. I donāt like Erdogan policies at all, but they are one of the traditional heavyweights in the Middle East anyway. They are in the NATO pact, but also a muslim country.
Turkey would possibly be a good shout under a different leader. But I suspect Erdogan would be the sticking point as Armenia, the Kurds and Syria would reject that possibility with him in charge.
The other issue is how much clout does Turkey have with Iran, Saudi and the gulf states compared to the Mediterainan side of the Midddle East?