The Middle East Thread

Since October the 7th, Israel has rescued 7 hostages out of 251 and killed more than 40,000 Palestinians.

Says it all about Netanyahu’s priorities.

To be fair, that’s also why there’s so much urgency lately by Biden to broker a peace deal. Not that he’s in any way as despicable as the Orange Turd but still.

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It’s been obvious since May when Biden first told us we were on the cusp of a deal and nothing happened that this thing would be allowed to rumble on by the Israelis until the other side of the election. The US could have used its leverage then to get Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire ( that was actually an Israeli proposal that Hamas had already agreed to ) but for domestic political considerations had refused to do so. That in effect gave him all the encouragement he needed to go on twiddling his thumbs until the election has been decided , and Biden’s dropping out doesn’t alter that calculation.

I’m not sure what to make of the suggestions of Trump and him colluding tbh. Although entirely believable , it’s one thing to report it but it’s an entirely different matter proving it.

I’m wondering how much of Netanyahu’s actions are rather more oriented towards making sure he stays in power to avoid the corruption charges.

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I think he seeks to engineer the type of strategic victory where he manages to come out of it a hero. For that to happen, they need to defeat Hezbollah properly and ideally destroy the Iranian nuclear program. And for the latter to happen, he needs American help. To get American help, Iran must attack Israel on a significant scale. To defeat Hezbollah properly, Hezbollah must launch a large strike (ISR has bombed ammo depots in the previously safe Bekaa Valley now 2 days in arow, causing significant damage to Hezbollah miliary capacity and they keep degrading Hezbollah’s ground forces with daily tit for tat attacks).

I don’t think he will achieve this, but I do certainly think he is more than intelligent enough (he is as we know, very intelligent) to know that sooner or later he is out of office, so he is on a timer and the clock is ticking. But for Netanyahu and much of the Israeli security establishment, Gaza is a side show and seen as a satelite or projection of Iranian military and political power. A long term cease fire is negative for them for several reasons, but one of them is also because it will remove the conditions they would need to get a war with Iran with a proper Casus Belli (ISR cannot attack Iran out of the blue, they need proper casus belli)

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Is this confirmed?

If yes, it’s absolutely despicable, but just the sort of thing you’d expect from him. 2.1 million people suffering and dying through war for four further months is ok for him if he can gain something from it.

If this turns out to be true, only that would be enough justification to politically finish him off. I hope that the democrats will make best use of it in order to show how morally bankrupt he is.

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Here is one of the sources:

The New Republic is difficult to nail down ideologically, it has moved around quite a bit over the years and has been frankly erratic in the past 12 years or so. But they are a serious outfit, certainly no tabloid.

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It reminds me of when he was leaning on the GOP to not do a deal with the Dems over the border. For Trump it is never about helping an issue or solving it.

The ONLY calculus is…

What will make me look good?

He is morally bankrupt, and in a normal world he would have been sunk many times over already, politically speaking.

We are not living in a normal world with him, so I expect this to barely register a footnote in the overall political discourse, even if it is atrocious.

To continue with my reports of the unusual targeting of the Bekaa Valley:
https://x.com/OALD24/status/1826351281436590171

We now have this:
https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1826397618794328523
https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1826396546029814177

This seems like in between degrading Hezbollah and a prememtive strike against it’s promised Big Attack (that has yet to happen).

I predict within the next 24 months, the big attack will come from Iran!

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Sure. You might be right.

The only thing is that the targetted killing of Hamiyeh is equal parts of taking out a Hamas leader and also sending a message to Iran that their leadership isn’t untouchable too.

Israel’s got cultivated assets in Iran (probably with the help of CIA and other intelligence agencies). Iran can attack , but Israel’s response is something that will absolutely push the region over into a perpetual war.

Democrats won’t use this unless there is irrefutable evidence that it’s true.

This isn’t the Republicans we are talking about, making shit up as they go.

He’s proud of showing just how morally bankrupt he is. It wouldn’t even matter to his supporters.

… (dubious source, so deleted)

There’s very much a LFC-Suarez* “he may be a cunt, but he’s our cunt, so he gets a pass from me” thinking amongst Republican supporters. Teflon Trump.

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*Sorry I realise this probably triggers a few people but I couldn’t help myself.

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@mods… where on the new layout is the function to put people on ignore?

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Click on the profile pic, then the third button down, which will likely be Normal, select Ignore.

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I think so too. Presumably they are racing to get nuclear weapons so there’s more oomph behind their conventional weapons. (I won’t get into Trump’s folly in ruining a nuanced and carefully negotiated international situation with Iran that he inherited).

Israel has nukes, which is why it throws its weight around in the region, and asymmetrically smashes people.

I wish the world didn’t have nukes as they are a grave threat, and it feels like we are getting closer to someone using them for the first time since the end of WWII.

Still, one lesson we’ve seen over the last 80 years is that the one thing that keeps it in check is balance. If both opponents are carrying a big stick they are more likely to be restrained in going all the way.

At present there is no balance to Israel in the region.

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When Obama made that deal with Iran, I thought that Iran having the nuclear weapon could be actually a good thing, as it would force Israel to stop their recklessness, and would also force Iran to become more responsible in regard to their foreign policy. But since Trump destroyed that deal, Iran have become increasingly unhinged.

As you say, one other nation in the Milddle East should have the atomic bomb, to restore a balance of terror. Who could that be? Egypt maybe?

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