The Middle East Thread

Warning. This video is relatively ugly. I only post to show that the detonations have been akin to a hand grenade and seem to be from an explosive device and not an overheated battery.
Please use caution in viewing such material, it is not good for everyone to watch. I don’t get a psychological reaction from it, but you may.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1836052147646955935

(mind you when I say that I don’t get a psychological reaction from it, I usually never watch such videos to the very end, and I have also not watched all of this one, simply because it’s not necessary; as I usually cut it for my own mental health when I think I understand what is going on).

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No, the some of the video now shows something rather more forceful than the fireburst pattern you can get from an overheating battery - faster and just more volume.

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Yeah, the detonations I have seen have no flame or next to no flame. But force, it’s more like a small handgrenade without splints and a bit less explosives too.

The Civil war is mostly frozen, but I would caution to think it is necessarilly over. I don’t necessarilly think it is. I follow x.com

He reports assassination and small scale fighting every week.
And recently, Ukrainian GUR have been hunting Russians at Keweires air base and more. The most recent is this from only a day ago…
https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1835742633039417714

So it’s not over. It just not in the news and there are no longer general offensives to take territory and contact lines are frozen. But nothing resembling peace.

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However, the idea that Israel can do this to all of their enemies, just as long as they want it and whenever they want, is asinine and uneducated (you did not claim this, I note). It takes a considerable operation to pull this off, since, you know, they actually will have to make their enemy buy corrupted devices from them :wink:
Israeli intelligence is very good, but it’s not as if they can just flex and then thousands blow up. It worked this time against Hezbollah, but I find the arguments that “oh, they could just have done this to Hamas” either uneducated or dishonest for several reasons (it’s not as if there was any political will in Israel to wait for 6-7 months after oct 7 to maybe pull off this kind of op for instance).
Pulling this off was very, very difficult and didn’t just take 3-4 weeks. First you have to plan it, (also get plan approved), then you have to infiltrate supply chain of the enemy with said devices, then you have to be sure they actually buy it; then you have to wait for them to distribute it;and so on. Takes time.

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https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1836156745674060133

https://x.com/shashj/status/1836133507497660416
https://x.com/shashj/status/1836134994466464045
https://x.com/shashj/status/1836135198381216082

Some people claims that the attack was likely not meant to happen now, but in context with an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. But Hezbollah getting suspicious made them pull the trigger.

I have no idea, of course, what is true. But it sounds reasonably logical since we know that, although no Israeli invasion of Lebanon has been politically approved by the ISR security cabinet, they have been planning it, preparing for it, ever since Hezbollah started their shelling in response to the Israeli campaign in Gaza. One should note that politically in israel, it is a major problem that the evacuees from the north, can still not get resettled and return home, and this fact increases likelyhood of invasion in my view.

But we’ll see. I don’t know. I just read.

Posts like this fucking sicken me. If Hezbollah had done this in Israel, indiscriminately killing and injuring thousands of civilians, it would (rightly) be described as an act of terrorism

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If you’d watched it you would see horribly injured children and maybe the discussion could focus on that rather than excitement over the technology used :pensive:

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I have noticed. I also wrote than a 10 year old girl was killed. Of course some non-Hezbollah members get hurt here, some killed due to how ISR decided to just arbitrarilly detonate all devices, not caring where those with devices are located or if children are besides a Hezbollah member. I am aware, WeeJoe.
I am not a cheerleader for Israel.

If you had visited the Ukraine thread, as there is a much larger war there with vastly more casualties, you would have noticed that I very rarely mention the civilians who get hurt, just sometimes to remind people of the ongoing horror. But it’s not what I choose to focus on, as that is what Mass Media does. I tend to try to focus on what Mass Media doesn’t focus on but I find important (and Mass Media overwhelmingly only focuses on civilian casualties, no one who reads western MSM only, have any idea as to what is going on in the war) or what they miss (unless it’s something that has just happened, in which case I talk about it).

The point about it being explosives or battery, is that it is actually important; as there are countless conspiracy theories going on and people are talking about their phones could explode etc. I think then it’s a bit important to note if it’s explosives or not.

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Israel have killed and injured many more civilians than Russia have over the past year

:pensive:

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Yes, if we only count only the year 2024, then that is correct regarding civilian casualties, as the Gaza campaign is much more focused in area and there is no safe place to evacuate to for civilians. But any attempt to make israel’s Gaza campaign worse than Russia’s invasion, is probably the best way to truly rile me up, since it categorically absolutely is not in any form or way true; so let’s not talk about that, please.
I also regard men (and women) who are mobilised to defend their country as people who are just as important as a civilian. Ukraine is not defending their country with an expeditionary volunteer force in some distant foreign land, it is human beings from all sectors and all segments of life, teachers, mechanics, grocery sellers, carpenters; all walks of life are dying there in droves. They are not less important as human beings and the catastrophical demographic situation in Ukraine is vastly worse than in Gaza (I assume everyone knows this ? If not, they really fucking should)

Anyway, I bid you good night, I always get a bad taste when I see insinuations that Russia has killed less civilians, so therefore whatever happens in Ukraine is some how less worse, despite the countless info available that it IS much worse.

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If the truth riles you up that’s your problem. Four times as many civilians have been killed and injured in Gaza than in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion.

Over 40,000 civilians murdered including nearly 16,500 children. More than 100k injured. The entire population is currently being starved. Every single hospital and school have been bombed.

What’s happened in Ukraine is terrible, but Gaza is worse by every single comparison uou could care to choose.

Equally important, though the western media wouldn’t have you believe that

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I hope this doesn’t escalate into a series of posts arguing which is worse, Gaza or Ukraine?

Both are unimaginably awful for the people concerned, and both have the capacity to escalate to wider regional, or even world war.

I never imagined that would be possible in my lifetime, but it feels like it is getting closer.

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I think the only way to pull this off would be with a coordinated attack and it appears some children got in the middle of it. Were the injured children related to the Hezbollah members? Probably not all but I guess the majority.

I am not going to fling mud at you, WeeJoe. You have always seemed a very good person to me. But I have issues with the trivialisation of the much larger war. The idea that what is happening in Gaza is worse, I have issues with that.

The problem is that you are unaware of the facts and have your truth (which is not the same as facts) and that you do not understand the demographic catastrophe in Ukraine nor the wide reaching geopolitical, economical and security political consequences, caused by the unprovoked Russian invasion. That the Ukrainian civilian population can, in general, withdraw from combat zones when Russia approaches is generally true, while the population in Gaza of course cannot (this was not true when Russia bombed encircled Aleppo as an example, with cluster munitions, but after the Siege of Mariupol, Ukraine has hurried to try evacuate civilians when the Russian army draws near). This is not however due to Russian kindness, but because Ukraine forcibly evacuatees citizens when the Russian army gets too close, something any sane state will do if they are able to.
The idea that Ukrainian military casualties do not count in comparison to Gaza civilians is also completely alien to me and makes no ethical sense. This is not a war of choice, it is not as if Ukrainian men can just run away without being labeled traitors, they fight because they must. A Ukrainian man or woman who fights has the exact same worth and none of them asked for this war. It has been forced upon them. The Ukrainian population has shrunk with more than 10 million, a very large number of whom will never return (unless we in the West help Ukraine actually win, very few will return). This is a demographic disaster in a shockingly short time completely incomparable with anything in the world today (certainly Gaza, which still has a very high population of younger people). More than 50 000 Ukrainian children have been kidnapped and sent to Russia to add to their demographic, it seems as if you are not aware of any of this. The number of civilian dead in Ukraine is unknown, but everyone agrees it is several thousands higher than the estimates from the UN (who do not count Ukrainian civ cas, no one does, but the idea that Gazan civ cas is 4 times as high is certainly an ugly myth. Not all of the 41-42000 in Gaza are civilians either, as an unknown but too small number, are Hamas). The siege of Mariupol alone, a small city, where bodies were everywhere, the United Nations were only able to count 1348 dead (!) because they had no access (they did not have access and the UN does not count Ukrainian civ cas like the do in Gaza) but admits that the real number was “several thousands higher”, yet this is the number that you have in your figures, as it’s the “official one”. Ukraine documents more than 25 000 civilians dead in that short and extremely brutal siege, Associated Press says it could be 3 times as high as that. The operation early in the war designed to shock Ukraine into surrendering and the Russian efforts into erasing the mass graves of civilians have been well documented (Russia scrubs Mariupol's Ukraine identity, builds on death | AP News ).

Since Mariupol, towns and cities are forcibly evacuated when the Russian army approaches within assault range. These are facts. Whatever number you have seen is inaccurate.

The scale of fighting, the scale of infrastructure destruction, in Ukraine is vastly, vastly greater. It is painful to see a European, who should have maybe been some what aware of the realities of what is going on in Ukraine, since it directly affects our security, our economy, focus on climate change, our everything after all (with socioeconomic and sociopolitical domino effects in almost all European countries, destabilizes developing countries with massively higher food and fuel prices etc etc.), minimise and trivialise the largest war in Europe since 1945.
It is an industrial war. Casualties, ammunition production, refugee flood; the numbers are so high it is into the realm of statistics. Who wins is about ammunition output, logistics and manpower, that is the scale of it!
I wonder what you think would have happened to Ukrainian civilians had they not been evacuated by their own state. I wonder if you have seen Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Soledar, all the towns, villages, most of whom were wiped off the map. I wonder if you know what it means that the Russian army advances into a village. When they do, only the odd house is standing, if that. They advance under a carpet of artillery fire and 500 kg bombs. Slowly, inexorably and in their wake there are no people left alive but the prisoners they take and later mistreat in captivity. The odd civilian who refused to evacuate, living in basement without running water. Very much like in Gaza, just empthy and on a far larger scale.
Ukraine is a very large country. The bread basket of Europe. If Russia wins, it will have enormous consequences on a macro scale for not only Ukrainians, but for the entire world.

So yes, unfortunately, on every relevant measurable parameter of any value, the disaster happening in Ukraine is worse. It affects global food supply, it affects fight against climate change, it affects the entire world outside the battlefield, and of course Europe to a very high degree. However, in the microcosmos of Gaza, the situation there is of course much worse in that specific small area for civilians specifically (because civilians cannot flee to another country). But the scale is vastly different.

There is some truly disturbing disinformation at work in the media sphere, where some parties seek to trivialise the cataclysmic disaster with it’s epicentre in Ukraine. A media “competition” for attention. It should be possible to have focus on everything, but mass media doesn’t seem to work that way, as it’s always the next bright shiny disaster that everyone should care about more than the previous one.
Anyway, my impression of you as a person is very positive, you seem kind and well meaning and also thoughtful. But it is disturbing how little Europeans seem to know about the war in Ukraine and the domino effects (not just you, in general, there is systemic ignorance), despite it is directly happening next door.

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And now I’ll just fuck off, go to bed and not return to this thread for a few weeks.

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Don’t have time to argue with all of that, and also this is the Middle East thread.

A fair point to mention that Ukrainian army is made up of many who were civilians. Though this should also highlight that Ukraine have received billions of dollars of military aid from the West. Palestinians on the other hand are utterly defenceless.

Final point, can you fuck off with insinuating on multiple threads that I think Ukrainian lives are worth less. As I said, all lives are equal.

My point in this comparison is to highlight how (in the Western media/discourse) Palestinian/Arab lives are not seen as equal to white European

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This has been blatantly clear for some decades. Anyone questioning this is either hiding their own biases or blindingly ill-informed.

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Why are we comparing two wildly different conflicts?

If people are being wilfully ignorant then may I point out that the Palestinian plight dates back to 1947. And Palestinians have never had a proper army. Never. And any sort of resistance they have offered has always been deemed as “terrorists”.

All this pager attack is going to do us piss off Hezbollah even more. And it’s a cowardly way of dealing with your opponents. Bravo!

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