I think this may be the beginning of an israeli invasion of south Lebanon, with the likely goal of creating a buffer sone to the Litani River. I hope I am wrong of course and I am just speculating in any case.
But I find it likely that It’s either that, or the stories about Israel setting these devices prematurely off are very accurate since it makes no tactical sense to detonate them outside the context of a surprise attack.
I fear the beginning of something worse, as I think Israel is trying to goad Hezbollah and Iran into going berserk, create a war and no mere clashes as has been happening since October 23, to force the US in on the Israeli side. It’s also a very critical time for the US due to upcoming elections, neither party in the US can politically stop Israel now and the US has promised Israel aid in the event of a larger war. So maybe it is favourable for Israel’s security cabinet to spring the war they want now, as their political freedom, is probably larger now than after US elections.
I am speculating of course, but A) israel has a political problem, they want to re-settle their evacuees in the north. This cannot happen under current clashes with Hezbollah. So either clashes must go to close to zero, or they must deal with it militarily. To deal with it militarily, they need to invade and physically limit rocketry range by occupying a buffer. To deal with it politically, they need a Long Term Cease Fire in Gaza, which seems far off currently, due to lack of political will regarding concessions and inabillity to force Hamas to surrender.
B) The IDF has trained for over a year to invade Lebanon. Most of it’s army is in the north. Very little in Gaza.
C) The israeli cabinet today gave Netanyahu and Galant the authorisation to undertake military action against Hezbollah, even if it leads to all-out war.
D) Israel has been unable to get a Casus Belli on Iran. The Iranian promised response did not happen, Iran backed down. Try again by going after iran’s most important and powerful proxy ? Maybe…
E) Unless this entire operation went awry and was prematurely set off as reported by many, the damage to Hezbollah command and control is vast and gives Israel a window of opportunity to hurt them truly bad with incoherant resistance from Hezbollah due to severe command and control issues. Likewise, a very, very large number of Hezbollah’s cadre have been maimed yesterday and today. The psychological effect of fear/terror is also vast, it is now reported that the Lebanese army (not Hezbollah( are destructing their electronic communication devices, panic has set in. A cynical actor about planning to attack can exploit this.
F) Even if no war has been actually planned to happen right now, these events often escalate and Hezbollah must surely respond in a powerful manner now, or their deterrence will be void; which again predictably will lead to Israeli retaliation and we know Israel is prepared for at least a limited invasion now (but notably, Hezbollah knows this too, so may not respond as harshly as one would think to avoid this scenario, I don’t know). Many previous wars have been started by Ad-Hoc situations, that actors choose to run with and exploit for strategic benefit. So it’s possible that even if these devices were set off prematurely because Hezbollah was in the process of unraveling the corrupted shipments, it’s possible still that Israeli cabinet says “go” without being completely prepared, due to the window of opportunity created mentioned earlier.
That would of course be a harrowing disaster for Lebanon, which is a country that has not yet even recovered from the Beirut port explosion. It would likely create millions of refugees, depending on how far Israel would go (Lebanon south of the litani is almost not populated, but one expects that any invasion would make a heavy bombing campaign against ammunition depots and launchers necessary, which would cause vast casualties and suffering, since parts of heavily populated Beirut would certainly be targeted in any sort of real war).
Anyway, it looks grim and could get a lot worse possibly.