To me it’s a bit of a grey area as to whether it can be classed as Terrorism. It is clear that Hezbollah terrorists were the target, but a large number of civilians are caught in the middle of it.
Where on the scale between ‘not giving two fucks about Lebanese civilians’ (war crime) and ‘putting the Lebanese civilian population on notice’ (terrorism) was Israel’s thinking on this attack?
Probably high on the “not giving a fuck about civilians, ever” list.
Lets call the attacks war crimes, using sophisticated terrorist tactics?
If Hezbollah or Hamas did the same to off duty/reserve IDF, but with pagers also used by teachers, doctors etc that also killed children… how would this be described??
It’s unbelievable that it’s even being debated. It seems what is defined as ‘terrorism/terrorist’ is dependent on the size of your military and your alliance with the US
https://x.com/sharifkouddous/status/1835292186818056667?s=46&t=Tk6buFVfyHeITdfFRWCVMg
The 1st 14 pages the age is listed as 0
I think this may be the beginning of an israeli invasion of south Lebanon, with the likely goal of creating a buffer sone to the Litani River. I hope I am wrong of course and I am just speculating in any case.
But I find it likely that It’s either that, or the stories about Israel setting these devices prematurely off are very accurate since it makes no tactical sense to detonate them outside the context of a surprise attack.
I fear the beginning of something worse, as I think Israel is trying to goad Hezbollah and Iran into going berserk, create a war and no mere clashes as has been happening since October 23, to force the US in on the Israeli side. It’s also a very critical time for the US due to upcoming elections, neither party in the US can politically stop Israel now and the US has promised Israel aid in the event of a larger war. So maybe it is favourable for Israel’s security cabinet to spring the war they want now, as their political freedom, is probably larger now than after US elections.
I am speculating of course, but A) israel has a political problem, they want to re-settle their evacuees in the north. This cannot happen under current clashes with Hezbollah. So either clashes must go to close to zero, or they must deal with it militarily. To deal with it militarily, they need to invade and physically limit rocketry range by occupying a buffer. To deal with it politically, they need a Long Term Cease Fire in Gaza, which seems far off currently, due to lack of political will regarding concessions and inabillity to force Hamas to surrender.
B) The IDF has trained for over a year to invade Lebanon. Most of it’s army is in the north. Very little in Gaza.
C) The israeli cabinet today gave Netanyahu and Galant the authorisation to undertake military action against Hezbollah, even if it leads to all-out war.
D) Israel has been unable to get a Casus Belli on Iran. The Iranian promised response did not happen, Iran backed down. Try again by going after iran’s most important and powerful proxy ? Maybe…
E) Unless this entire operation went awry and was prematurely set off as reported by many, the damage to Hezbollah command and control is vast and gives Israel a window of opportunity to hurt them truly bad with incoherant resistance from Hezbollah due to severe command and control issues. Likewise, a very, very large number of Hezbollah’s cadre have been maimed yesterday and today. The psychological effect of fear/terror is also vast, it is now reported that the Lebanese army (not Hezbollah( are destructing their electronic communication devices, panic has set in. A cynical actor about planning to attack can exploit this.
F) Even if no war has been actually planned to happen right now, these events often escalate and Hezbollah must surely respond in a powerful manner now, or their deterrence will be void; which again predictably will lead to Israeli retaliation and we know Israel is prepared for at least a limited invasion now (but notably, Hezbollah knows this too, so may not respond as harshly as one would think to avoid this scenario, I don’t know). Many previous wars have been started by Ad-Hoc situations, that actors choose to run with and exploit for strategic benefit. So it’s possible that even if these devices were set off prematurely because Hezbollah was in the process of unraveling the corrupted shipments, it’s possible still that Israeli cabinet says “go” without being completely prepared, due to the window of opportunity created mentioned earlier.
That would of course be a harrowing disaster for Lebanon, which is a country that has not yet even recovered from the Beirut port explosion. It would likely create millions of refugees, depending on how far Israel would go (Lebanon south of the litani is almost not populated, but one expects that any invasion would make a heavy bombing campaign against ammunition depots and launchers necessary, which would cause vast casualties and suffering, since parts of heavily populated Beirut would certainly be targeted in any sort of real war).
Anyway, it looks grim and could get a lot worse possibly.
As we speculate on how bad it could get, I can’t help but wonder how close Iran is to having nuclear weapons. And related to that, how has Russia helped Iran, in exchange for drones and weaponry to use in its invasion of Ukraine?
Iran has a formidable conventional military, but if it is backed by a credible nuclear threat, all of a sudden it may feel more able to go toe to toe with Israel, rather than via proxy.
Russia is in no position to hell Iran substantially given their war in Ukraine which is at a stalemate.
They would need the Ukraine war to come to an end (which I don’t see happening anytime soon) to commit more funds and support to Iran. The last thing Russia wants at this point of time is for the Iran Israel conflict to escalate to a full blown war.
Iran is compromised internally. Israel’s assasination of one of Hamas’s top brass on Iranian soil proves that. Their finances aren’t great. It’s not going to sustain them in a prolonged proper conventional war. Hence the proxy in Hezbollah.
No country would escalate it to a nuclear show of power.
China won’t enter the conflict explicitly as the weakening of Russia strengthens China’s hold on Russia in the longer run.
Very close apparently , and decidely closer ever since Israel pulled off their previous technical whizz bang when they remotely assassinated Fakhrizadeh , Iran"s top nuclear scientist , the unintended consequence of which was to accelerate its nuclear program to the point that one year after the attack they were enriching uranium to a purity of 60% (compared to the 3.67% threshold stipulated under the 2015 nuclear deal).
So once again Israel stuns the world with its technical know how and sheer audacity , but once again does such an act really serve any strategic purpose , in the absence of a full blown war which , as Magnus has alluded to , is obviously their aim. Iran has shown remarkable restraint thus far in the face of severe provocations and they aren’t foolish enough to play their ace card ( the threat of raining hell on Israeli cities through their proxies in Lebanon) unless they are directly attacked.
The last thing Iran wants now is to jeopardise their chances of getting a bomb , which according to some people is very close indeed ;
“Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point at which, within about one week, Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons. For that uranium to pose a nuclear weapon threat, however, it would have to be processed further, and the other components of a successful weapon would have to be ready to receive the processed uranium. Weaponization activities could take anywhere from several months to a year or more, although the timeframe is uncertain.”
I’m trying to convince myself that it isn’t just a plot by the Israeli government to try to retain power by creating a perpetual war.
There are well known nuclear proliferator states in North Korea and Pakistan who can provide the material to Iran.
Stop that wasted effort. It’s been patently clear that this is part of their objective. It’s the only thing preventing Netenyahu from being put on trial for corruption.
Netanyahu’s entire political career has depended upon his ability to warmonger and demonise , and he’s not about to stop now. Ironically , he’s probably done more than anybody else to bring Iran to the brink of having a nuclear weapons capability and making real the existential threat.
Netanyahu is clearly a psychopath but it’s overly simplistic to pin everything on him. Israel is a depraved, terrorist state, and there are many just like him.
They have committed every possible war crime, every possible horror, crossed every red line with total impunity. Even today US is sending them billions more in military aid. There’s is literally nothing stopping them now which is a really scary thought
Fairly certain that there is a significant proportion of the population that don’t support him, given their razor-thin margins in the Knesset.
Furthermore, if we have the belief that we shouldn’t blame ordinary Palestinians for being sympathetic to the Hamas cause because of propaganda, then we also shouldn’t blame the Israeli civilians who are brought up on that propaganda.
For at least some segment of Israel’s ruling coalition, a war with Iran that will allow unrestricted targeting and destruction of their nuclear capability is an immediate aim.
They did this against Iraq in the early 1980s. There are many analysts that believe this caused, rather than prevented, nuclear proliferation.
Have you ever visited either place?
If you had you would realise how ridiculous it is to think that propaganda influences Palestinian views rather than 80 years of displacement, occupation and daily hardship
Exactly. And that has been the strategic goal in those circles long before the relatively recent corruption case that may put Netanyahu in prison.
I think the fact that Netanyahu is a white collar criminal is a bit exeggerated as cause for continuation of the Gaza campaign myself (Netanyahu is powerful, but holds far from dictatorial power).
The Israeli security circle has the elimination of the Iranian threat as their nr. 1 goal and here instabillity and the Gaza campaign helps them, as you need tensions and clashes and escalation to get a Casus Belli.
On the other hand, the devil will tell you; the Iraqi and the Syrian nuclear program was successfully thwarted so it can work in specific cases.
But its a gamble for sure.
The invasion of Iraq (recent one, not gulf) made North Korea and Iran draw certain conclusions.