As we speculate on how bad it could get, I can’t help but wonder how close Iran is to having nuclear weapons. And related to that, how has Russia helped Iran, in exchange for drones and weaponry to use in its invasion of Ukraine?
Iran has a formidable conventional military, but if it is backed by a credible nuclear threat, all of a sudden it may feel more able to go toe to toe with Israel, rather than via proxy.
Russia is in no position to hell Iran substantially given their war in Ukraine which is at a stalemate.
They would need the Ukraine war to come to an end (which I don’t see happening anytime soon) to commit more funds and support to Iran. The last thing Russia wants at this point of time is for the Iran Israel conflict to escalate to a full blown war.
Iran is compromised internally. Israel’s assasination of one of Hamas’s top brass on Iranian soil proves that. Their finances aren’t great. It’s not going to sustain them in a prolonged proper conventional war. Hence the proxy in Hezbollah.
No country would escalate it to a nuclear show of power.
China won’t enter the conflict explicitly as the weakening of Russia strengthens China’s hold on Russia in the longer run.
Very close apparently , and decidely closer ever since Israel pulled off their previous technical whizz bang when they remotely assassinated Fakhrizadeh , Iran"s top nuclear scientist , the unintended consequence of which was to accelerate its nuclear program to the point that one year after the attack they were enriching uranium to a purity of 60% (compared to the 3.67% threshold stipulated under the 2015 nuclear deal).
So once again Israel stuns the world with its technical know how and sheer audacity , but once again does such an act really serve any strategic purpose , in the absence of a full blown war which , as Magnus has alluded to , is obviously their aim. Iran has shown remarkable restraint thus far in the face of severe provocations and they aren’t foolish enough to play their ace card ( the threat of raining hell on Israeli cities through their proxies in Lebanon) unless they are directly attacked.
The last thing Iran wants now is to jeopardise their chances of getting a bomb , which according to some people is very close indeed ;
“Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point at which, within about one week, Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons. For that uranium to pose a nuclear weapon threat, however, it would have to be processed further, and the other components of a successful weapon would have to be ready to receive the processed uranium. Weaponization activities could take anywhere from several months to a year or more, although the timeframe is uncertain.”
I’m trying to convince myself that it isn’t just a plot by the Israeli government to try to retain power by creating a perpetual war.
There are well known nuclear proliferator states in North Korea and Pakistan who can provide the material to Iran.
Stop that wasted effort. It’s been patently clear that this is part of their objective. It’s the only thing preventing Netenyahu from being put on trial for corruption.
Netanyahu’s entire political career has depended upon his ability to warmonger and demonise , and he’s not about to stop now. Ironically , he’s probably done more than anybody else to bring Iran to the brink of having a nuclear weapons capability and making real the existential threat.
Netanyahu is clearly a psychopath but it’s overly simplistic to pin everything on him. Israel is a depraved, terrorist state, and there are many just like him.
They have committed every possible war crime, every possible horror, crossed every red line with total impunity. Even today US is sending them billions more in military aid. There’s is literally nothing stopping them now which is a really scary thought
Fairly certain that there is a significant proportion of the population that don’t support him, given their razor-thin margins in the Knesset.
Furthermore, if we have the belief that we shouldn’t blame ordinary Palestinians for being sympathetic to the Hamas cause because of propaganda, then we also shouldn’t blame the Israeli civilians who are brought up on that propaganda.
For at least some segment of Israel’s ruling coalition, a war with Iran that will allow unrestricted targeting and destruction of their nuclear capability is an immediate aim.
They did this against Iraq in the early 1980s. There are many analysts that believe this caused, rather than prevented, nuclear proliferation.
Have you ever visited either place?
If you had you would realise how ridiculous it is to think that propaganda influences Palestinian views rather than 80 years of displacement, occupation and daily hardship
Exactly. And that has been the strategic goal in those circles long before the relatively recent corruption case that may put Netanyahu in prison.
I think the fact that Netanyahu is a white collar criminal is a bit exeggerated as cause for continuation of the Gaza campaign myself (Netanyahu is powerful, but holds far from dictatorial power).
The Israeli security circle has the elimination of the Iranian threat as their nr. 1 goal and here instabillity and the Gaza campaign helps them, as you need tensions and clashes and escalation to get a Casus Belli.
On the other hand, the devil will tell you; the Iraqi and the Syrian nuclear program was successfully thwarted so it can work in specific cases.
But its a gamble for sure.
The invasion of Iraq (recent one, not gulf) made North Korea and Iran draw certain conclusions.
You really are just so blinkered here aren’t you? I’m not saying that those aren’t factors. They could well support other factions, so why Hamas even though the lack of any tangible results are quite visible?
Nope I have worked and lived with people in Israel and West Bank, and am in touch with friends there now. You on the otherhand are disagreeable and opinionated on everything. I was asking what experience this is based on?
Not lived experience but reports of people who actually study these things instead of just take anecdotes?
More to the point, what are you arguing for then, the complete eradication of Israel? I’m not sure what other conclusion there is if you refuse to accept that propaganda plays a huge role here.
Absolutely. The fact that it is a state carrying them out doesn’t make it something else. State terrorism would probably be the appropriate words?
I believe that pressure needs to be kept on Hamas as well.
They have a culpability.
We’ve had this discussion before and I reiterate. Hamas is the de facto government of Gaza.
Israel bears a lot of guilt but I don’t want to see a solution where Hamas retains some power. That’s just pushing the conflict to another time.