Israel has usurped the land quite a fair bit since the treaty.
The actions of the PLO and the later offshoots in Hamas and Fatah have ensured that the Palestinians donât have much support with Jordan and Egypt too.
Egypt could have been forced to assimilate Gaza into their territory then. They clearly wanted nothing to do with that.
The pager attack is something every war laywer can probably easily defend even though one might find it distasteful. Very low collateral expected (compared to normal state military attacks, where civ cas is expected to be much higher than that in an urban setting). But the radios are far more questionable in terms of legality. You cannot expect Hezbollah members to have them on body and you could expect a far higher Civ Cas as a result.
Another aspect is if mere membership in Hezbollahâs political wing means that you are a legitimate military target. Of course, Hezbollah is an illegal organisation, has no state protection and Geneva Convention does not apply (but International Humanitarian Right absolutely does) and UN security resolution demands that it disarm long ago, but itâs still a bit grey and maybe too wide a net cast, to be technically legal. There is also the question as to where the targets are located.Hezbollah has doctors in hospitals (as evidenced by recent martyrdom notifications, not that such reccent evidence should be needed), you endanger other medical personal and patient etc. It can be perfectly legal to kill civilians in a military assault on military targets or infrastructure targets vital to war effort, but only if the military strategic benefit is proportionally significantly higher thant he cost of civilian lives, which is laywer areas I donât like to venture into with confidence, since it is so difficult to navigate (the stuff happening in Gaza are more obvious crimes, because the military benefit is negligible in comparison to civilian suffering, evidenced by the IDF still failing to reach any sort of war goals after a year). If this is what it looks like, the precursor to war, then ironically, it is probably legal, since the attacks took out so many Hezbollah and has a clear military benefit in the context to an invasion. If Israelâs Casus Belli is good enough is another matter entirely, but I reckon it might, due to Hezbollahâs entry into the Gaza war and the steady slow burn escalation.
However, technicallities does not equal political wisdom and certainly not ethics or morality. This is a humanitarian disaster.
Anyway, I am not sure. But what looks to be happening now is dreadful and I find the IDF statements today horrifyingly scary as to what they may may in terms of expansion of the war.
2 Likes
Yes, there are reasons why they would not be absorbed, and would at best have constrained refuge areas. If Israel drives the population out of Gaza, that population ends up in Gaza, or refugee camps in Egypt, Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon - despite none of those governments wanting to take any more.
Even the radios are not that problematic. If you could bring down an artillery round on every radio operated by a hostile force, the fact that you did not know what else was at the location would not be considered problematic. Yes, some might be civilians, some might be your own PoWs. But you would be crippling their communications system, a legitimate military target. Hezbollah clearly meets the criterion of being a hostile force, regardless of how various powers might wish to characterize them in legal terms on other dimensions. You donât need an argument of pre-emptive escalation, Hezbollah was firing on Israel, the radio attacks diminish their capacity to do that. The radio blasts themselves were not particularly large, especially not compared to an artillery round. Compared to some of the air missions happening today in areas with possible civilian populations in southern Lebanon, far more discriminate and targeted.
1 Like
I donât and will not contest, as I lack expertise. I know a bit, probably more than a bit more than the average person regarding humanitarian law and rules of war; but I have no expertise what so ever. I havenât studied this at all, just read about it and heard academics and generals argue various points.
But I note that itâs controversial. Not that controversial means necessarilly illegal of course.
2 Likes
This is happening now, or 30 min ago anyway:
https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1836838985370308658
Also, Hezbollah has said that it is war, which is another form of language than previously used during the clashes all of these months.
2 Likes
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1836706179080183875
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1836783848689922349
Omar doesnât post disinformation (but is very opinionated, but that isnât the same, as opinions differs from facts). I canât remember he has posted misinformation either (but he probably might, as he posts preliminary stuff, but if so he has deleted it in the past).
https://x.com/OALD24/status/1836859939865968667
2 Likes
ISR claims the entire command cadre of 20 officers of the Ridwan Group has been taken out in todayâs earlier strike in Beirut, targeting a war meeting of Hezbollahs millitary leadership. Hezbollah admits many Hezbollah officers have died on their side.
The Israeli intelligence infiltration into Hezbollah is eye brow raising.
Hezbollahs carefully cultivated image of invincibility shattered in 2 days.
Also rumours of a general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard killed in strike. Hezbollah is reeling.
Significant escalation.
2 Likes
There canât be much that Israel doesnât know about the organisation , its operations and its fighters. Where the fuck does this end ? 
3 Likes
As much as I donât want this to legitimise Israelâs continuing genocide, I have got to say that Iâm appreciating that Hezbollah is getting wrecked.
3 Likes
I am too technically speaking in favour of Hezbollah getting wrecked, but on the other hand I donât truly, because I fear the consequences and donât want to see Lebanon destroyed (if it spirals out of control, which is possible if Israel invades), refugee waves and I also fear that when/if Iran enters, it might not stop as soon as one would like, since israel will say âthank you very muchâ and hit them back truly hard. Thatâs the problem with wars, they can be hard to stop if they really start. And itâs a catalogue of bad actors.
Ideally, of course, Lebanon would be free of Hezbollah tomorrow and Iran would be free of itâs dictatorship tomorrow as well, but itâs not going to happen like this.
Itâs just that escalation is a thing. In Ukraine it isnât anymore, itâs full war. But Israel and Hezbollah (and Iran) has had a âI hit you, you hit me, I hit you harder, I won because you now hit me less and cease firing for a few monthsâ security political order, which obviously, as we can see, isnât teneable in the long term. But there is a large difference between military clashes and war.
4 Likes
Lebanon is a very open state (Beirut is famous for having many spies and of being easy to infiltrate due to political tribal system of Lebanon) and Hezbollah is Israelâs main security concern apart from Iran. Itâs not like Gaza, which is sealed off. So Israel will have very easy access in Lebanon compared to most places on earth, I would assume.
Hezbollah affiliated (he isnât a member, but he has very many friends and sources who are) journalist I usually go to to read about âinside Hezbollahâ stories, have this today (which is filtered of course by his pro-Hezbollah stance, so canât expect 100 percent facts obviously):
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1837156080356413526
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1837173374755168402
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1837174572518383859
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1837176344205021460
Itâs surprising they havenât taken out Nasrallah. I know for years he was beyond their reach , never sleeping in the same bed on consecutive nights etc. , but surely they have the ability to now. Maybe the creeping intensity of these targeted attacks is a warning to the man himself ; Stop the rocket fire or youâre next.
1 Like
I think that is much like with Haniyeh. A choice. He is difficult to find and far, far better protected than Haniyeh obviously, but I think they can do it and It is said that they have had the opportunity in the past. But the problem with taking him out is that itâs the final red line and from the looks of it, Israel isnât interested in invading Lebanon properly. They are probably interested in a very limited invasion, maybe creating a buffer sone at most (they are looking for a victory and end to hostilities with Hezbollah eventually). It is very useful to have Nasrallah alive diplomatically since it can limit the escalation. Itâs for much the same reason that Bashar al Assad is very much alive and âwellâ, despite everyone and their little homeless dog, bombing Syrian targets now and then and gives fuck all about Syrian sovreignty after 2012.
1 Like
Itâs a view from the pro Hezbollah analyst
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1837228046295912640
The IDF has hammered south Lebanon today, claims it has taken out 400 launchers and hit very many ammunition depots. That they have hit depots is obvious from videos:
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1837451153304342604
A very major detonation and shockwave from secondary detonation here:
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1837550535798407476
Meanwhile Hezbollah has raised the Red Flag it is reported, all across Lebanon. That probably means war.
They have now also attempted to strike the Ramat David airbase in israel, but pro Hezbollah accounts which claims it is burning are wrong, there is a fire, but in vegitation outside the base (notably taking out powerline, causing a blackout in the area though):
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1837627689160921474
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1837628560393245097
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1837618850248249599
Also rocket attacks on Nazareth, but Hezb wonât hit anything interesting there really.
https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1837619612663316748
2 Likes