My take is there is clearly wrong on both sides, but in all likelihood, since they have the better military, Israel will probably go over the top in its response against Hezbollah, as we saw against Hamas.
I suspect the end game is a desire to have a war with Iran to take out their nuclear facilities, as that is probably the thing Israel fears most.
And saying ‘over the top’ does not, of course, adequately describe what has been genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.
Yes, I’ve written that above a fair few times. Evacuees number something like 75 000 and is a gigantic political problem for the Netanyahu government, which has been lambasted in Israel for not caring about the evacuees . That is the is reason for why Israel is hitting Hezbollah so hard right now and their return is the stated War Goal. This can only be achieved if Hezbollah stops launching rockets, drones and mortars. And the only way to stop them from launching rockets, drones and mortars is to smash Hezbollah and physically remove their capacity to launch them (such as buffer sone) or will to launch them, or a cessation of the Gaza Campaign. Since Israel would never let Hamas or Hezbollah win, Cessassion of the Gaza Campaign in return for Hezbollah ceasing fire is out of the question (because then Hezbollah, and worse Iran, would have achieved a perception of victory, which is politically impossible for Israel due to aforementioned state sized dicks swinging above). Solution then becomes military.
First Hamas, now Hezbollah. The October 7 is going to deliver some bonanza to Netanyahu. He is a vile cunt, but he called the bluffs correctly. Not that he cared much if he were wrong.
The U.S. government’s two foremost authorities on humanitarian assistance concluded this spring that Israel had deliberately blocked deliveries of food and medicine into Gaza.
The U.S. Agency for International Development delivered its assessment to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the State Department’s refugees bureau made its stance known to top diplomats in late April. Their conclusion was explosive because U.S. law requires the government to cut off weapons shipments to countries that prevent the delivery of U.S.-backed humanitarian aid. Israel has been largely dependent on American bombs and other weapons in Gaza since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks.
But Blinken and the administration of President Joe Biden did not accept either finding. Days later, on May 10, Blinken delivered a carefully worded statement to Congress that said, “We do not currently assess that the Israeli government is prohibiting or otherwise restricting the transport or delivery of U.S. humanitarian assistance.”
If accurate, this report shows once more that the Biden administration is very much complicit in what happens there. F*ck knows why they feel the need to encourage these genocidal warmongers…
Probably wishful thinking , but does there come a point , when Beirut starts to look a lot like Gaza , that the US finally decides to stop supplying them with the means of destruction ?
Palestinian journalist Bisan Owda and Al Jazeera’s AJ+ have won an Emmy in the Outstanding Hard News Feature Story category for their documentary, It’s Bisan from Gaza – and I’m Still Alive.
I couldn’t bring myself to listen to the whole thing , but Netanyahu has just wrapped up his speech to a seriously vacated UN chamber. In it he made the claim that there was a missile in every Lebanese garage and a rocket in each kitchen. Given that Shiites only comprise 30% of Lebanon’s population and that not all of them support Hezbollah , his assertion is , on its face , ridiculous.
It’s not hard to understand why he’s saying it however ; Just as the human shield trope has seemingly excused the slaughter of about 30,000 non combatants and the rasing of the Gaza strip , he’s clearly getting his excuses in now for what is most likely to befall south Lebanon and even Beirut.
Unless something is done to stop this madness then I think we have to expect the worst.
I am busy, but a hours ago, the IDF bombed the Central Headquarters of Hezbollah and Iran is trying to understand if he is alive or not according to reports. Previously, Israeli bombings have been fairly accurate and pinpoint so far in Lebanon, this time they used enormous munitions and a lot of it as well as multiple strikes.
There is no end to this in sight now, that is for certain, irrespective if Nasrallah survived or not https://x.com/michaelh992/status/1839720612740444650
6 large buildings completely flattened in this strike. They really, really, really wanted to kill these people
Off ramp and deescalation incredibly hard to see now. Even if I was a an Israeli security analyst and was cheerleading for Israel, and I am certainly not; I am not sure I would think this wise despite the overwhelming military superiority of Israel. Can they really afford to be stuck in years of protracted low intensity warfare ? It carries a large economic cost, even if you ignore the political damage. Goal must surely be to win politically, but how do they intend to win fast ? I don’t get it. I do get the strategic damage to Iran obviously, it is losing it’s deterrence, military satelites part of its deterrence are getting absoluteley wrecked and Iran pays a huge price as it sits there doing very little. Lebanese people have long since realised that Hezbollah is Iran’s tool to use and not the other way around, just like Hamas have painfully found out. That realistation (that Iran does not come to their aid, while they are obliged to come to Iran’s defence) costs Iran a lot of political capital of course.
Oh well. Nothing I can do anyway. But this is going to just get worse unless the US, which is in an election year and thus of course will do very little due to pro Israeli voters being too important for both parties; does something real. And the Israeli security cabinet is exploiting the political situaton in the US remarkably well (Israel would, I think, have been curtailed by now had it not been an election year; but I speculate of course).
Expect as much munitions thrown on Tel Aviv as Hezbollah is able to throw (which honestly is less than many think after last week’s Israeli bombardment, but still probably significant). And what about Iran ? Will it continue to suck it up ? In the Chinese sense, interesting days ahead.
