I think we are seeing that Hezbollah are only equipped to be an irritant to Israel. Israel’s forceful response will decimate Hezbollah. Hezbollah could throw everything they have at Israel and it might bloody their nose, but it will be a pretext to a massive and decisive loss.
I get the impression that Israel is looking for a reason to confront Iran, to try to take out their nuclear facilities. So they are escalating, perhaps to try to get to that point.
Iran’s new President spoke well at the UN recently, but there remains a sense that the polished politician will speak well internationally, while the Supreme Leader Khamenei holds the real power.
A huge question for me is how close is Iran to having nuclear capability?
With Trump breaking up the international deal a few years ago, the sense that keeping them on a short nuclear leash has evaporated, and they have enriched a lot more plutonium since. There’s still a big gap to getting the bomb, but then we know that Iran has supplied drones and rockets to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, so how much has Russia helped Iran, with nuclear know-how?
Israel usually has great intelligence, and I suspect Iran is close, so it looks to me as though they are trying to escalate to get to the point of snuffing out Iran’s nuclear plans, before Iran crosses the threshold to being nuclear armed.
Hopefully very near, because it’s the only thing which will calm down Israel. As long as they are the Middle-East’s bullies and the only holders of the nuclear weapon, they will continue to do whatever they want. They must be stopped, and if that means Iran getting the nuclear weapon, then so be it.
( I realize that Iran’s theocratic regime is awful in itself, but right now, they are not worse than Israel’s current government imo. )
The world has had nuclear weapons for 80 years now. If the history has shown us anything, it is that balance leads to restraint.
Ideally we would live in a world without nuclear weapons. It gets more and more dangerous the more nations that have them. But Israel is throwing its weight around and that is not right either.
While I’m thinking about nuclear weapons and the Middle East, does Saudi Arabia have nuclear aspirations? It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to learn they have the bomb, and that it has been bought and paid for from their enormous wealth and a willing client who has enabled it. But geopolitically it’s on the down low?
Maybe too conspiratorial, but they certainly have the money.
One might say Israel is the rogue nation with nukes in the Middle East.
Because they are the only one, they throw their weight around irresponsibly.
I am against nuclear weapons, and against more and more nations having them… but since the cat is out of the bag and quite a few nations have gone nuclear, my reluctant position is that it needs regional balance.
I do agree that Israel can be classified as a rogue country. And they probably need quite a bit of cutting down to size.
Giving Iran the nuke isnt going to help anything. Iran is an equally reprehensible regime with a terrible record of abetting terrorist entities and despotic rulers like Assad.
If Iran is being contained so far , it is because it’s been heavily sanctioned and the fact that even their closest allies in Russia and China don’t want them getting the nuke.
I’m pretty sure that the nuke technology transfer will happen regardless of who in the US is in power.
The Saudis have historically been US’s Ally and the US establishment has always been bending over backwards to accomodate them. Same goes for Israel.
At this point, it’s only natural that the Abraham accords still hold. It’s only the matter of the “pesky” Palestinians that’s stopping it from being a more upfront alliance.
The US has very strict laws preventing the sharing of nuclear technology. Kushner’s little windfall would likely mean those laws being circumvented if his father in law gets back in. I can’t see the same thing happening with a Democrat in office.