The Middle East Thread

Genuinely had no idea this person existed, but quite clearly a Russian tool.

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I think an Israeli strike on Iran is possible, but at current unlikely. But I do think it is possible. They for sure want it, they want to exploit this situation and take care of the enemies they can take care of, now that they have this golden window of opportunity prior to the US election.
So yeah, It is worrisome. But I still think Israel hope that Iran retaliates now soon, so they can get a better Casus Belli. It would be ideal for them.

Holy fuck , they’re going to attack Iran.

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You are very lucky to have never heard of the imbecile. He was Super MAGA, earned too little money out of that, and swapped to Putin and Assad. Now it is Putin, Assad, Ansar Allah, Kim jong Un, Khamenei and for some reason Venezuela.
There is a big grift on the internet to be had for westerners who do propaganda against the West.
Problematically, he is of course pro Palestinians (not that he cares about them, but officially in his grift), so he is often re-tweeted by pro Palestinians who have a terrible filter (which sadly is quite a lot of people on the internet). It works for him. He get’s interviews on RT even. Recently even traveled to Sana and interviewed the Houthies :smiley:

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Yeah, I worry about that posibillity indeed. As I said, I do think they hope for a better Casus Belli though. For the “promised” iranian retaliation (they also killed an IRGC general in Beirut when they took out Nasrallah and Khamenei reportedly was in tears when Nasrallah died according to one source). Trying their best at least.

But still, I don’t think they will strike Iran out of the blue, but they might.

I’ve rarely seen such a direct threat towards a country, formulated in such a straightforward manner. It’s absolutely frightening to see him replicate JW Bush’s words before he went to war with Iraq. Wasn’t it said then that he’d bring them democracy, progress and prosperity, and that it would be a war for the greater good?

Now, almost twenty-five years later, with all the hindsight of what happened after the US went to war, this demon goes again with the same arguments. As if war had ever brought prosperity anywhere… :see_no_evil:

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Perhaps the only thing that might deter them (at least for now) would be the prospect of Hezbollah throwing everything they’ve got at Israel if Iran comes under attack. That certainly wouldn’t help their stated goal of getting their civilians back into their homes in the north , and nor would an incursion presumably. This really is on a knife edge now.

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Contradictory reports.

Israel claiming so.

Yeah but you’re missing the point.

It keeps him in power, so the gravy train continues.

I don’t think Hezbollah is an effective deterrant at current. They are in chaos, it’s not just the leadership that has been liquidated, far worse for an organisation like Hezbollah is the methodical take out of the middle commanders and veterans (pager and radio strikes). Hezbollah at the moment, is seriously in jeopardy and unable to calibrate retaliation effectively.
It is getting constantly bombed, it’s resistance, rockets and missiles, not very coordinated. But yes, it can probably throw a lot more iron, but it’s seriously reeling at the moment. Unlike in Gaza, in Lebanon, the Israeli strikes have benefited from fantastic intelligence and almost every bombing run actually hit Hezbollah targets.

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It brings plenty of prosperity to arms manufacturers and dealers.

And their chums in government.

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Regarding Maher al Assad, Israel did indeed bomb the Syrian 4th division HQ (4th division is the IRGC affiliated one led by Maher al Assad) and caused significant casualties, but unknown if Maher is dead. Would be quite ok if he was. 4th division was the one responsible for most chemical attacks.

Bottom line, Israel is currently bombing every single Iranian military satelite.

Yeah, I should have written general prosperity, which is Netanyahou’s theme in his speech: after we’ll have brought war to your country, Iranian people will thrive and everyone will be happy. Basically what JW Bush said when he brought war to Iraq.

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I wonder at which point Russia will intervene. Iran is their closest ally in the middle east after all.

This is where the Ukraine war is a quagmire for them. They had no choice but to watch Armenia get disembowelled, and they don’t have many options here.

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Russia is rumoured to be in the process of transfering anti ship missiles to Ansar Allah in Yemen, but apart from that, it cannot do anything. Russia is a land power with limited power to project force and has a small garrison in Syria, “safish” haven where it trains for Ukraine these days. But Syrian garrison has been drawn down. Russia has pulled out of Armenia (were forced out), but recently also Abkhazia in Georgia, where occupying garrison is being pulled into Ukraine (same elsewhere). These days there are insignificant forces on the Finish border as an example.

Russia is constantly overestimated and underestimated at the same time. It is stuck 100% in Ukraine, is not a land threat to anyone larger than Moldova at current. At the same time, its resilience is underestimated, which is why Ukraine is not getting 1/3 of the military aid that it desperately needs.

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The additional personnel includes squadrons of F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter jets and the personnel needed to support them. The jets were supposed to rotate in and replace the squadrons already there. Instead, both the existing and new squadrons will remain in place to double the airpower on hand

Seems to be in preparation for possible war between Iran and Israel. Why else would more aircrafts be needed ? Not for Hezbollah or Assad-Syria or IRGC militias in Iraq, that is for certain.

This was in the news a couple of days back.

Fail to see why Khamanei needed to mention India considering that India is one of the few countries that has commercial interests with Iran.

Absolutely zero sum game.

‘To defend Israel’… as they slaughter civilians in all the territories around them.

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https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/unrwa-chief-denies-knowledge-that-suspended-employee-was-hamas-leader-lebanon-2024-09-30/