Russia is rumoured to be in the process of transfering anti ship missiles to Ansar Allah in Yemen, but apart from that, it cannot do anything. Russia is a land power with limited power to project force and has a small garrison in Syria, “safish” haven where it trains for Ukraine these days. But Syrian garrison has been drawn down. Russia has pulled out of Armenia (were forced out), but recently also Abkhazia in Georgia, where occupying garrison is being pulled into Ukraine (same elsewhere). These days there are insignificant forces on the Finish border as an example.
Russia is constantly overestimated and underestimated at the same time. It is stuck 100% in Ukraine, is not a land threat to anyone larger than Moldova at current. At the same time, its resilience is underestimated, which is why Ukraine is not getting 1/3 of the military aid that it desperately needs.
The additional personnel includes squadrons of F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter jets and the personnel needed to support them. The jets were supposed to rotate in and replace the squadrons already there. Instead, both the existing and new squadrons will remain in place to double the airpower on hand
Seems to be in preparation for possible war between Iran and Israel. Why else would more aircrafts be needed ? Not for Hezbollah or Assad-Syria or IRGC militias in Iraq, that is for certain.
Visegrad is the worst possible source regarding the Middle East which circulates on twitter from Europe (many from the Middle East are even worse, but most of them are not in English), but that’s besides the point. It is old news that the Lebanese army is withdrew yesterday as well as this morning from positions on the border, about 5km northwards. Visegrad’s follow up sentence is…lol, typical Visegrad.
But seriously, no one should use Visegrad as source for the Middle East, refugee problems, or European politics. Ukrainian front news at most, although they only parrot so I find the same stuff from non-corrupted sources. Visegrad is abominable, exactly the kind of site and propaganda that people who want to ban twitter is worried about and so if you use them, which I have done a few times in the past, it’s courtesy to warn people that it’s a propaganda channel uninterested in nuance for context. It’s an example of the kind of site I always try to filter out and double check it’s reporting (which I have mentioned in the past I do with propaganda sources), anyway
Anyway, enough about that shit-site. An Iranian ballistic missile strike is around the corner now (they believe launch can happen at any moment), according to very credible intelligence from the US. 3 military bases and 1 intelligence facility outside Tel Aviv is believed by the US to be the target.
It is believed that Iran will not launch drones this time around, so there will be only 12-15 minutes warning time if so.
Seems pointless. It is not anywhere close to a significant enough show of force to establish deterrence, all it establishes is that Iran is also willing to engage in hostile and violent acts and provide Israel cover for what is almost certain to happen in south Lebanon.
I don’t think anything is going to deter Israel from making a ground incursion. It would appear their initial campaign of strikes has crippled Hezbollah’s command and control, it is probably too good of an opportunity for them to now destroy capacity to pass up - even if it is only a 72 hour rampage.
Absolutely (Israel called up 4 new reserve brigades earlier today as well), question is only how far ISR will push. I assume the Litani River.
But regarding the bolded part, it’s about face saving towards “the Axis of Resitance” and trying to instill some sort of deterrence. But it’s also a dangeorus gambit, because if the strike is large enough, it’s exactly what some in Israel are looking for…
Victor Orban’s Hungary and the Hard Right in Poland (very anti German, anti soft West, extremely anti refugees from the east and south etc.). There is not a news item that they do not put a spin on. Obviously they are extremely pro Netanyahu.
Regarding Israel, it is better to get ones sources from actually knowledgable sources from Israel or at least some sort of experts. Visegrad has no expertise on the Middle East. Their stance is just the same as the Law and Justice Party in Poland and that of Victor Orban’s party. They don’t have good access to Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran or anyone else really. It’s not a serious outlet really. But they are big on twitter due to the Ukrainian war (all behind Ukraine as long as Ukraine tows the Polish line) and have good sources in Ukraine and Poland obviously.
Basically Eastern European Nationalist News, parroting interests of Poland, Hungary and Slovakia; but mostly Polish Hard Right (they had a temporary Fallout with Orban’s party since he is Putin friendly, but support him in everything which is not about the Ukrainian war).
You may read more about them here. It’s obvious propaganda (which doesn’t mean that they don’t usually report facts, just that they almost always lack nuance and that they are extremely selective about a topic and always put a spin on things, which again means that they very often actually lie due to omission or spin)
According to the analysis, the profile was at that time an unofficial profile of the Visegrád Group. It had primarily been promoting Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán, was sympathetic to United States president [Donald Trump, and contained negative content about Western European political leaders.[[4]]
I only make a point out of this as a general warning to others, since I have noticed that Sithbare use them often (which is probably not healthy for him and his information space, but I couldn’t care less about that)
Around a 100 ballistic missiles. Short warning. 13 minutes from launch to detonations. Unclear how many were shot down, but Syrian and air space was full of Israeli and US jets.
Still a lot incomming. I am watching Norwegian news now, they are still coming in, arrow missiles one way, Iranian ballistic missiles the other way. The Norwegian journalist is outside Tel Aviv airport. A lot of missiles in the air.
I’m really torn, because on the one hand I’d like to celebrate Hezbollah getting decimated, but on the other hand, it’s still loss of human life no matter what they did, and also it’s just the precursor to more deaths, especially of innocent civilians.
I’d really like my locked room solution to be possible.
But…The consequences of this ? What will it be. Damage Assessment is now crucial and will take hours, maybe a couple of days if something sensitive was actually hit, due to Israeli military censorship (they tell the truth regarding these things, the Israelis, but it takes time)