https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-settler-group-advertises-new-properties-southern-lebanon
Oh gee, Israeli Settler group advertising properties in Lebanon. What a surprise?
Visegrad is the worst possible source regarding the Middle East which circulates on twitter from Europe (many from the Middle East are even worse, but most of them are not in English), but thatās besides the point. It is old news that the Lebanese army is withdrew yesterday as well as this morning from positions on the border, about 5km northwards. Visegradās follow up sentence isā¦lol, typical Visegrad.
But seriously, no one should use Visegrad as source for the Middle East, refugee problems, or European politics. Ukrainian front news at most, although they only parrot so I find the same stuff from non-corrupted sources. Visegrad is abominable, exactly the kind of site and propaganda that people who want to ban twitter is worried about and so if you use them, which I have done a few times in the past, itās courtesy to warn people that itās a propaganda channel uninterested in nuance for context. Itās an example of the kind of site I always try to filter out and double check itās reporting (which I have mentioned in the past I do with propaganda sources), anyway
Anyway, enough about that shit-site. An Iranian ballistic missile strike is around the corner now (they believe launch can happen at any moment), according to very credible intelligence from the US. 3 military bases and 1 intelligence facility outside Tel Aviv is believed by the US to be the target.
It is believed that Iran will not launch drones this time around, so there will be only 12-15 minutes warning time if so.
Good luck to civilians on all sides.
Seems pointless. It is not anywhere close to a significant enough show of force to establish deterrence, all it establishes is that Iran is also willing to engage in hostile and violent acts and provide Israel cover for what is almost certain to happen in south Lebanon.
I donāt think anything is going to deter Israel from making a ground incursion. It would appear their initial campaign of strikes has crippled Hezbollahās command and control, it is probably too good of an opportunity for them to now destroy capacity to pass up - even if it is only a 72 hour rampage.
Absolutely (Israel called up 4 new reserve brigades earlier today as well), question is only how far ISR will push. I assume the Litani River.
But regarding the bolded part, itās about face saving towards āthe Axis of Resitanceā and trying to instill some sort of deterrence. But itās also a dangeorus gambit, because if the strike is large enough, itās exactly what some in Israel are looking forā¦
What interests do they shill for generally?
Victor Orbanās Hungary and the Hard Right in Poland (very anti German, anti soft West, extremely anti refugees from the east and south etc.). There is not a news item that they do not put a spin on. Obviously they are extremely pro Netanyahu.
Regarding Israel, it is better to get ones sources from actually knowledgable sources from Israel or at least some sort of experts. Visegrad has no expertise on the Middle East. Their stance is just the same as the Law and Justice Party in Poland and that of Victor Orbanās party. They donāt have good access to Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran or anyone else really. Itās not a serious outlet really. But they are big on twitter due to the Ukrainian war (all behind Ukraine as long as Ukraine tows the Polish line) and have good sources in Ukraine and Poland obviously.
Basically Eastern European Nationalist News, parroting interests of Poland, Hungary and Slovakia; but mostly Polish Hard Right (they had a temporary Fallout with Orbanās party since he is Putin friendly, but support him in everything which is not about the Ukrainian war).
You may read more about them here. Itās obvious propaganda (which doesnāt mean that they donāt usually report facts, just that they almost always lack nuance and that they are extremely selective about a topic and always put a spin on things, which again means that they very often actually lie due to omission or spin)
According to the analysis, the profile was at that time an unofficial profile of the VisegrƔd Group. It had primarily been promoting Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor OrbƔn, was sympathetic to United States president [Donald Trump, and contained negative content about Western European political leaders.[[4]]
I only make a point out of this as a general warning to others, since I have noticed that Sithbare use them often (which is probably not healthy for him and his information space, but I couldnāt care less about that)
Missile Launch.
Edit: They have arrived:
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1841156652340269359
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1841157064803971321
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1841157328764064076
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1841157607936909773
Note the red dots are air warnings of possible targets, not necesarilly individual missiles:
https://x.com/MarQs__/status/1841154535395344758
Around a 100 ballistic missiles. Short warning. 13 minutes from launch to detonations. Unclear how many were shot down, but Syrian and air space was full of Israeli and US jets.
Still a lot incomming. I am watching Norwegian news now, they are still coming in, arrow missiles one way, Iranian ballistic missiles the other way. The Norwegian journalist is outside Tel Aviv airport. A lot of missiles in the air.
Iām really torn, because on the one hand Iād like to celebrate Hezbollah getting decimated, but on the other hand, itās still loss of human life no matter what they did, and also itās just the precursor to more deaths, especially of innocent civilians.
Iād really like my locked room solution to be possible.
Second Wave this.
Most of those in the 2nd video would appear to be fragments from successful interceptions.
But this probably means that it is over from Iranās side:
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841159467032867003
Statements usually are given when attack is done.
Butā¦The consequences of this ? What will it be. Damage Assessment is now crucial and will take hours, maybe a couple of days if something sensitive was actually hit, due to Israeli military censorship (they tell the truth regarding these things, the Israelis, but it takes time)
I just saw live of the second wave and that was certainly very intact Iranian missiles flying over Tel Aviv.
It is clear that the Iranians have not targeted civilian centres. I think we will know much, much more within a couple of hours.
https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1841160357772980448
https://x.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1841159256088645893
As I have been harping about (and of course Arminius to be fair)
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1841158830102634746
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1841158964345536935
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1841159861981036757
https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1841159438050492740
Worth noting that Iran went for it this time around. They oversaturated Israeli BMD on purpose, unlike last time, where they undersaturated on purpose. That indicates willingness to escalate a lot tbh. Because very many of these missiles have probably hit their targets (which can still be programmed to be empthy fields, but probably not this time around).
Yeah, the calls from the White House will now be asking Israel not to retaliate on Iran directly, i.e. carte blanche in South Lebanon