I just saw live of the second wave and that was certainly very intact Iranian missiles flying over Tel Aviv.
It is clear that the Iranians have not targeted civilian centres. I think we will know much, much more within a couple of hours.
https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1841160357772980448
https://x.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1841159256088645893
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As I have been harping about (and of course Arminius to be fair)
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1841158830102634746
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1841158964345536935
https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1841159861981036757
https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1841159438050492740
Worth noting that Iran went for it this time around. They oversaturated Israeli BMD on purpose, unlike last time, where they undersaturated on purpose. That indicates willingness to escalate a lot tbh. Because very many of these missiles have probably hit their targets (which can still be programmed to be empthy fields, but probably not this time around).
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Yeah, the calls from the White House will now be asking Israel not to retaliate on Iran directly, i.e. carte blanche in South Lebanon
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Likely, but I think they would have carte blanchè in South Lebanon anyway personally and that they didnât âneedâ this Iranian strike as such.
But Israel is going to strike Iran now in any case, i think. But for the US it is a diplomatic nightmare of course, constantly humiliated by Netanyahu governmentâs hard nosed exploitation of the political situation. They know they donât have a leash until the election is done so this is the opportune time for dealing with old foes imo.
Numbers tossed around at current are in the realms of 300-400 tactical ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
I think the Israeli defence establishment is surprised personally. They ate a lot of missiles. As in a lot. It will be VERY interesting to see what the targets ended up being.
I doubt the israeli defence establishment thought Iran would dare to launch this kind of attack (depending on what was hit).
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Yeah, in the end if they are ignoring what Biden asks for in Lebanon anyway, it doesnât make that much difference if the White House now shifts focus. I guess the real question is whether or not Israel goes after targets in Iran, or is content with unleashing on Hezbollah. However, with the scale of it, I suspect Israel will be targeting launch sites in Iran before the weekend.
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Yes, this Iranian attack is much, much too large. It was not calibrated within any sort of escalation control limit that matters.
Countless videos of detonations circulating of course, but here is another, a bit closer in to impacts:
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841165751052357995
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1841165841397584162
If youâre in the pub and your mate keeps saying stupid shit to try and get a rise out of other punters, you will only protect him and back him up for so long.
Eventually you will come to the point where you realise that your mate getting a smack in the chops is something that he needs to receive to learn to not be a dick. Maybe Israel is that mate that nneds a smack in the mouth
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This attack is too large for a smack though. It essentially invites war, I am afraid.
it wonât end well for Iran.
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https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1841165430754357739
Also:
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841166463811612967
Air spaces over various countries in the region now closed. Iran did not issue NOTAMs this timeâŚ
https://x.com/yossi_melman/status/1841167533841306010
As far as we know so far, 3 civilians were lightly injured (which is of course a very low number). Officially, no military cas at current, but there might very well be (Israeli military censor, first families are contacted, then OP-Sec, etc.).
So this is how it all endsâŚ
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Yes, good point. I meant that Iran will face a cost, unclear how large. Itâs speculative to guess before I know more of what damage israel actually suffered.
I am not sure what kind of calibration is possible with the current Israeli regime. The weak strike earlier achieved nothing in those terms, though I am not sure what it could achieve. Israel was not going to accept a certain level of launches coming from Hezbollah. But at this point, Israel is now appears to be moving to destroy Hezbollah. The only point at which a deterrent will now engage is where Iran stands in directly. That appears to be what they are doing.
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True enough. I worry about a strike on Iranian nuclear program and the consequences of that though.