Likely, but I think they would have carte blanchè in South Lebanon anyway personally and that they didn’t “need” this Iranian strike as such.
But Israel is going to strike Iran now in any case, i think. But for the US it is a diplomatic nightmare of course, constantly humiliated by Netanyahu government’s hard nosed exploitation of the political situation. They know they don’t have a leash until the election is done so this is the opportune time for dealing with old foes imo.
Numbers tossed around at current are in the realms of 300-400 tactical ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
I think the Israeli defence establishment is surprised personally. They ate a lot of missiles. As in a lot. It will be VERY interesting to see what the targets ended up being.
I doubt the israeli defence establishment thought Iran would dare to launch this kind of attack (depending on what was hit).
Yeah, in the end if they are ignoring what Biden asks for in Lebanon anyway, it doesn’t make that much difference if the White House now shifts focus. I guess the real question is whether or not Israel goes after targets in Iran, or is content with unleashing on Hezbollah. However, with the scale of it, I suspect Israel will be targeting launch sites in Iran before the weekend.
Yes, this Iranian attack is much, much too large. It was not calibrated within any sort of escalation control limit that matters.
Countless videos of detonations circulating of course, but here is another, a bit closer in to impacts:
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841165751052357995
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1841165841397584162
If you’re in the pub and your mate keeps saying stupid shit to try and get a rise out of other punters, you will only protect him and back him up for so long.
Eventually you will come to the point where you realise that your mate getting a smack in the chops is something that he needs to receive to learn to not be a dick. Maybe Israel is that mate that nneds a smack in the mouth
This attack is too large for a smack though. It essentially invites war, I am afraid.
it won’t end well for Iran.
https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1841165430754357739
Also:
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841166463811612967
Air spaces over various countries in the region now closed. Iran did not issue NOTAMs this time…
https://x.com/yossi_melman/status/1841167533841306010
As far as we know so far, 3 civilians were lightly injured (which is of course a very low number). Officially, no military cas at current, but there might very well be (Israeli military censor, first families are contacted, then OP-Sec, etc.).
So this is how it all ends…
Yes, good point. I meant that Iran will face a cost, unclear how large. It’s speculative to guess before I know more of what damage israel actually suffered.
I am not sure what kind of calibration is possible with the current Israeli regime. The weak strike earlier achieved nothing in those terms, though I am not sure what it could achieve. Israel was not going to accept a certain level of launches coming from Hezbollah. But at this point, Israel is now appears to be moving to destroy Hezbollah. The only point at which a deterrent will now engage is where Iran stands in directly. That appears to be what they are doing.
True enough. I worry about a strike on Iranian nuclear program and the consequences of that though.
As far as I know, Israeli defense system can intercept/destroy 80-90% of the missiles. That would mean that around 50 missiles will get through the defense system. With each missile carrying a payload of 600kg, that packs a considerable punch.
What if Iran turns around and says that any strikes like that will result in them sticking a nuclear warhead on one of the next waves of missiles ? I’m not saying they’ve got them , but seeing as this is now a very high stakes game of poker would Israel dare call that bluff ?
The problem with that is the Israelis almost certainly know what Iran actually has. Not much of a bluff, but probably enough to get US support.
Israel’s perception appears to be that Iran is close enough to need stopping, but not operational or an actual threat yet.
They’ve already said that an Israeli response would be met with an even greater reply. They know that must be coming , so what else might they have up their sleeve ? Otherwise this whole exercise looks suicidal.
More missiles? Other forms of attack? Saying they will continue to escalate is sort of pro forma, just like Israel saying there will now be consequences.