The Middle East Thread

Axios reports that Israel and Hezbollah is close to a cease fire and that it is supposed to be announced on wednesday.
It is reported that Netanyahu has accepted it but he must get it through his cabinet.
There are few logical reason not to accept it unless Israel wants to truly go in deep (I doubt that) since it would represent a crystal clear and rare Israeli victory.

But the Israeli cabinet is fucked up, so who knows. Still, it would be odd if they let victory out of their grasp by being obstinate. A delay of a few days is maybe likely though.

A possible spoiler is if Hezbollah commanders refuse to do as the political leadership wants, since it will be hard for them to sell it as anything but a crushing military and political defeat. I am a bit surprised that they are even considering it so early since it represents defeat so clearly.
Maybe the reports are wrong though. But its what Axios claims.

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I wonder who these gangsters really are. As they operate in plain sight of the Israel army, they must be linked with them in some sort.

Also, this picture, taken from the article, is revealing:

These faces are clearly marked by serious, lasting hunger. Something we have been accustomed to see coming from African countries in the last decades, but not from the Middle East.

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Cease Fire in Lebanon probably on wednesday. Today we have seen a dramatic increase in bombing raids, which is normal when a cease fire is thought to be around the corner. I expect this evening and tonight, that the Israeli Air Force will bomb as many targets as possible. And Hezbollah is also likely to launch a fair few, if they are able.

In any case, the Israeli Security Cabinet has accepted the cease fire, as predicted. The state of Lebanon is supposed to withdraw Hezbollah (again) from the border and north of the Litani river, but I don’t see and or understand how they can police that. It’s up to the Party of God really (but they have accepted this, so)

https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1861145405297238421

He may be right.

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https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1861498326941626853

https://x.com/timourazhari/status/1861510968695566717

I’m no lawyer but… Sounds like ethnic cleansing to me.

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I would of thought that once all the structures and means to support human life had been eradicated from a region then people would be only too happy to ‘voluntarily’ emigrate.

It probably makes no difference now (to anyone who matters) that it was the plan all along and I expect we will soon be hearing a lot more about the new ‘facts on the ground’ when people speak of Gaza. In much the same way that the Israeli Govt. have been using that term for the last thirty years , which , to their minds at least , provided cover for their ‘involuntary’ immigration into the West Bank.

I’d still like to know where all these people are supposed to go however. Maybe that nice Mr.Smotrich might put them on trains to somewhere.

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France suggests it would not arrest Netanyahu under ICC warrant

Here’s more on the statement by the French foreign ministry that suggests Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, would not immediately be arrested if he came to French territory despite an international criminal court (ICC) arrest warrant targeting him.

Despite the prime minister, Michel Barnier, saying earlier this week that France would “rigorously” respect its obligations under international law, the foreign ministry on Wednesday said it would continue to work closely with Netanyahu.

The ministry argued that Netanyahu and others ministers affected benefits from immunity because Israel is not a member of the court. It said:

A state cannot be held to act in a way that is incompatible with its obligations in terms of international law with regards to immunities granted to states which are not party to the ICC.

The ministry said this would be “taken into consideration if the ICC was to ask us for their arrest and handing over.”

The statement also cited the “historic friendship that links France and Israel”, describing them as “two democracies committed to the rule of law and respect for professional and independent justice.”

France intends to continue to work in close collaboration with prime minister Netanyahu and other Israeli authorities to achieve peace and security for all in the Middle East.

:man_facepalming::face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

I have been trying to tell people for a couple of years that the Syrian Civil War is not over. Some seem to think it is. Me, I read about shelling and bombing of villages almost every day. But there has been no offensive. Until now.
I have very mixed feelings regarding this offensive, given the actors involved. With the exception of the cease fire in Lebanon (unfavourable to the actors who initiated this offensive), the timing is favourable since many of the actors are weakened (Russia will not be able to reinforce much and Iran is very weakened at the moment ). The Assad state is of course very weak, but has at the same time regenerated for years (though lost many soldiers and officers to assassinations). HTS is strong now. And unfortunately, this offensive is led by HTS and not someone more sensible. Turkey is prepared for intervention, that is well known.

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703187654119736

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703191370276879

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703238891851810

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703950094729672

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861706774287434202

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861706888485671412

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861711303758184692

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861716179561095187

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861716905670648195

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861719136373493870

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861722608166633685

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861724299159093615

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861750571985691011

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861771749722820907

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861784101910446261

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861794298452136107

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861795200718234095

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861797229364707370

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861805076072829209

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861805649102860503

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861832659455860891

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That is a lot and particularly when it is not a surprise attack.
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1861839333860192288/photo/1
https://x.com/VivaRevolt/status/1861897768991896026

( amusing and ironic, considering that Hayat tharir al Sham is essentially a rebrand of Jabat al-Nusra)
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1861717626692473286

Such a shame that their safe training haven in Syria, where they get some on-hand experience before deployment in Ukraine, turned out unsafe right now.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1861790608014049516

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3km from Aleppo city now. A bit absurd really.

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https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1861877732629454978

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