The Middle East Thread

I would of thought that once all the structures and means to support human life had been eradicated from a region then people would be only too happy to ‘voluntarily’ emigrate.

It probably makes no difference now (to anyone who matters) that it was the plan all along and I expect we will soon be hearing a lot more about the new ‘facts on the ground’ when people speak of Gaza. In much the same way that the Israeli Govt. have been using that term for the last thirty years , which , to their minds at least , provided cover for their ‘involuntary’ immigration into the West Bank.

I’d still like to know where all these people are supposed to go however. Maybe that nice Mr.Smotrich might put them on trains to somewhere.

3 Likes

France suggests it would not arrest Netanyahu under ICC warrant

Here’s more on the statement by the French foreign ministry that suggests Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, would not immediately be arrested if he came to French territory despite an international criminal court (ICC) arrest warrant targeting him.

Despite the prime minister, Michel Barnier, saying earlier this week that France would “rigorously” respect its obligations under international law, the foreign ministry on Wednesday said it would continue to work closely with Netanyahu.

The ministry argued that Netanyahu and others ministers affected benefits from immunity because Israel is not a member of the court. It said:

A state cannot be held to act in a way that is incompatible with its obligations in terms of international law with regards to immunities granted to states which are not party to the ICC.

The ministry said this would be “taken into consideration if the ICC was to ask us for their arrest and handing over.”

The statement also cited the “historic friendship that links France and Israel”, describing them as “two democracies committed to the rule of law and respect for professional and independent justice.”

France intends to continue to work in close collaboration with prime minister Netanyahu and other Israeli authorities to achieve peace and security for all in the Middle East.

:man_facepalming::face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

I have been trying to tell people for a couple of years that the Syrian Civil War is not over. Some seem to think it is. Me, I read about shelling and bombing of villages almost every day. But there has been no offensive. Until now.
I have very mixed feelings regarding this offensive, given the actors involved. With the exception of the cease fire in Lebanon (unfavourable to the actors who initiated this offensive), the timing is favourable since many of the actors are weakened (Russia will not be able to reinforce much and Iran is very weakened at the moment ). The Assad state is of course very weak, but has at the same time regenerated for years (though lost many soldiers and officers to assassinations). HTS is strong now. And unfortunately, this offensive is led by HTS and not someone more sensible. Turkey is prepared for intervention, that is well known.

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703187654119736

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703191370276879

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703238891851810

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861703950094729672

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861706774287434202

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861706888485671412

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861711303758184692

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861716179561095187

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861716905670648195

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861719136373493870

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861722608166633685

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861724299159093615

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861750571985691011

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861771749722820907

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861784101910446261

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861794298452136107

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861795200718234095

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861797229364707370

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861805076072829209

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861805649102860503

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861832659455860891

3 Likes

That is a lot and particularly when it is not a surprise attack.
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1861839333860192288/photo/1
https://x.com/VivaRevolt/status/1861897768991896026

( amusing and ironic, considering that Hayat tharir al Sham is essentially a rebrand of Jabat al-Nusra)
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1861717626692473286

Such a shame that their safe training haven in Syria, where they get some on-hand experience before deployment in Ukraine, turned out unsafe right now.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1861790608014049516

1 Like

3km from Aleppo city now. A bit absurd really.

1 Like

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1861877732629454978

1 Like

Western Aleppo, oh, oh, oh my God !!!

I don’t have time to write about this now or post what I read from my sources, but my God!
Shocking collapse. This offensive was widely reported being prepared in October and still they run like it was 2016.

Note: I do not think the city of Aleppo will fall now, just in case I am misunderstood. Taking a large city is a vastly different prospect, but full collapse in 2 days. They are now at the gates of Aleppo itself ! And fighting inside the strategic stronghold on the M5 highway, Sarraqib.

Notabene: IRGC’s Brigadier General Kiyomarth Porhashmi, commander of the Revolutionary Guard (in Syria) is killed. A Russian Spetsnaz team, in charge of FPV drones in Aleppo, overrun. There are pictures, there is film. Several T-72 captured, fortified army bases overrun. Crazy. Unfortunately though, offensive is led by Hayat Tharir al Sham and their “Salvation Government”. Turkey is not leading this, but they did “ok” it. And Hezbollah is not able to reinforce from Lebanon at current time so soon after their many casualties in their war loss against Israel. Iran might call up on Iraqi PMU of course, but takes time. Russia unable to easily reinforce. Gloomy for the dictator in Damascus right now. But also for civilians in government areas who may have to take the road, once again…

3 Likes

1 Like

Israeli military says air force struck Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon

The Israeli military said on Thursday that the air force struck a facility used by Hezbollah to store mid-range rockets in southern Lebanon, the first such attack since a ceasefire took effect on Wednesday morning.

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

In to just say that it is beyond absolutely hilarious that mainstream media outlets have not picked up on what is happening in Syria. Very amusing.

And then I am out again.

2 Likes

Brown lives don’t matter to the western media, sadly.

3 Likes

It’s likely part of the reason, but I have seen this before with unfolding geopolitical events that gets out of control. If it is a bit surprising, it is not picked up before a few days by the media bureau’s that newspapers and tv stations buy their stories from. It is not individual newspaper’s fault usually (unless it’s an editorial decision), it is the bureau’s they buy the news from. They can often be side blinded if they have stopped focusing on a region and/if something else that requires attention is happening at the same time. Now, we have Ukraine and Gaza competing for conflicts news (everyone has forgotten or doesn’t even know about Sudan) and Syria is seen as less important. And probably to be fair, it is. For now.

Even so, there should be notices . No one expects them to send actual journalists, they can’t afford that; but there should be someone who at least reports what he or she reads.

But this happened even before the Big One. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Only in the last weeks, was it reported that there was considered to be a high risk of invasion, despite Russia having moved hundreds of thousand’s of troops and not exactly in silence. You had to be a nerd like me and have a special interest in being informed to actually know and understand what was happening and why. To be able to explain the trend of increased war time propaganda, when Russia was selling it’s invasion to its people (a process that it spent more than a year on) and fabricating daft tales of bioweapon labs.

The same with Armenia, it some how always comes as a surprise when Azerbadjan invades to the media. There is no surprise in reality, they spend weeks reinforcing positions with troops, trumpeting various casus belli’s to their people and more. No surprise if you have a special interest and follow events and can filter sources. But the caucasus is not interesting so it’s not written much about.

But it still makes me shake my head that mainstream media is always so late.

I do however agree that the brown people bit carries a lot of weight. I do not think it’s about skin colour, but more location and culture. If it was about skin colour alone, no one in the West would give a fuck about the Middle East and the truth is that almost everyone, gives some sort of fuck. It is a sexy region, interesting culturally to us. Africa south of Sahara ? Nah. Caucasus ? “I don’t know what or where that is, but I think they use strange Russian letters and that they are probably muslims or something”.

2 Likes

Nope.

It would be a case of “let the camel shaggers fight among themselves” if it weren’t for three things:

  1. Oil
  2. The increasing geopolitical influence of the gulf states
  3. Western support for Israel
2 Likes

There probably isn’t a mainstream Western news service agent left anywhere in Syria, outside of maybe Aleppo(edit-meant Damascus). Most of the area would be covered by freelance stringers considered unreliable initially. Consider how broken the story was of the utter collapse of the Afghani government. It was not really being reported until it was all but over.

3 Likes

The curious case of France apparently undermining the ICC with regards to the arrest warrant of Netanyahu and others is explained here to be the result of some typical brinkmanship and strong arming from the Israeli PM , in the face of which Macron seemingly capitulated.

French sources , and the ICC , however remain adamant that it is not within Macron’s gift to promise immunity and should Netanyahu travel to Paris then approval for the warrant’s execution would be for the courts alone.

Wider implications and apparent double standards are also examined.

2 Likes

The Middle East has always been a zone of interest for everyone, throughout the ages. For religious and strategic reasons. Of course, the reasons you cite have added weight to that.

1 Like

Fixed

This would be a question for the lawyers, but if the ICC issue an arrest warrent for a country’s leader and other countries that have signed up to the ICC refuse to arrest said leader, then could that country not be charged with harbouring a war criminal?

Apparently not if they choose to invoke Article 98 of the Rome Statute and then threaten to withdraw from the judicial body. (South Africa and Bashir).

‘In the world of law experts, there are two camps: One which says that obligations to the ICC must be respected, and the other that horizontal relations, between states, must be respected.’

1 Like

Ehem, guys. They have…broken into Aleppo proper. I repeat, they have broken into Aleppo proper. I don’t have time to inform you, but this is as big as it gets out of the blue. Assad troops retreating, Russians withdrawing, roads being cut left and right, domino stack falling. Unbelievable what is happening now.
Again, there are heavy clashes inside western Aleppo proper, HTS and friends have CAPTURED New Aleppo and western neighbourhoods this morning and battles ongoing and they are still moving, moving, moving and the Assad troops are still routing, routing, routing.
Civilians fleeing enmass to eastern Aleppo. This is of course going to be ugly.

Clashes now in the middle og Aleppo city centre, much of the western city taken. They have broken into the Old historic Aleppo, beyond the ring road.

1 Like