As i said , Let’s wait and see.
I hope I’m proven wrong but there’s going to be a significant climbdown, especially if Trump has his way.
Regardless of what he would were the situation to get there, Starmer is savvy enough to ensure it doesn’t happen. A Trump White House won’t force a NATO member to roll out the red carpet for Netanyahu, but they and Capitol Hill would be going ballistic at the prospect of Netanyahu being detained. Were Starmer to bend the knee on that, his political career would be over. The Labour base would collapse in on him.
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I do expect there will be a climbdown, but it will be on various economic measures, etc. We do quiet hypocrisy quite well while avoiding the spectacular.
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I do think that Trump would expect some countries to unilaterally endorse Israel… that too in public.
It will be a unqualified disaster to those leaders, but as i said , lets just hope my thoughts are wrong and those countries have enough of a backbone to refute Trump on this,
Circle discussion not going anywhere, as knowledge don’t matter much. So I figured I could share an article I read earlier today.
I liked reading it. Maybe you will too. Or maybe not.
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Most of the NATO heads of state already have the boiler plate ‘abide by and respect’ statements out now, only the US has condemned them.
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Starmer the genocide-supporting ‘human rights lawyer’?
https://x.com/philipproudfoot/status/1859579276862902433?s=46&t=Tk6buFVfyHeITdfFRWCVMg
Hang on, has he stated he will provide immunity for Bibi? Since the ICC arrest warrants announcement this morning?
I didn’t think so.
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About fucking time.
I’d add Starmer, Lammy, Sunak and Cameron to the warrant list and lock the fucking lot of them up.
Still a huge gulf between that and welcoming Netanyahu to London and having him address Parliament.
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Freed article here : https://archive.ph/WAUVU
’ Netanyahu and Gallant of responsibility for starving the millions of Palestinians imprisoned in Gaza as refugees after being expelled from their destroyed homes, and denying them humanitarian aid, electricity, gasoline, food, water and, especially, medicine and anesthetics. Both are also accused of responsibility for deliberate attacks on civilians, the murder of children who died of hunger and dehydration.’
Netanyahu’s office: ICC ruling is ‘absurd and false lies’ and ‘antisemitic’.
Yoav Gallant (Oct 9) ; '“I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly,”
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The times of a close-knit NATO alliance under US dominance is over since quite some time. Trump getting back into charge will only accelerate a centrifugal movement which started years ago.
On Netanyahou, I applaud the ICC. As Arminius said, it makes him Persona non grata in a lot of countries all over the world. Excellent.
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Obvious outlier being Hungary, but then most people suspected that would be the case. He even invited Netanyahu, funny man. Previously he traveled to Putin. He should get to know Kim Jong Un better imo. I hear it is nice on the state controlled visits to North Korea.
Hungary is a very fascinating Case Study of Right Wing Populism and how fucked up it can get.
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https://x.com/skotrds/status/1859812417284300818
https://x.com/skotrds/status/1859814080392929663
https://x.com/skotrds/status/1859815674840821828
https://x.com/skotrds/status/1859815987740278822
Mr. Richards makes an excellent and factual retort here based on reality. Spencer has his nose so far up Netanyahu’s ass that I am surprised he can still draw breath. However, for the sake of absolute accuracy, there is one error in his otherwise expert posts that is note worthy. For the sake of nuance, I should mention that Hamas has regenerated and recruited manpower since the war began (previously much discussed among analysts). So if the starting point was 15-20k fighters, if Israel has killed 15 000, there would of course be more than 5k left etc. On the other hand, IDF has of course killed many more than Hamas has regenerated and for Hamas to train new fighters under current conditions, it is of course quite hard. But they will always have a trickle of badly trained volunteers under current conditions (Hamas is not very popular regime due to the nature of their repressive rule, but during war, some will always want to fight if their familes are slain by the enemy; so many vengeful or hopeless young men will turn to Hamas). CIVCAS is also probably not actually 43k, but given the percentage that is women and children, it’s so high that it’s not worth making a point around really. Not all men are Hamas, after all.
I feel a bit dirty writing that, but it’s facts and facts are sacred.
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https://x.com/shashj/status/1859936380849463704
Hungary and Germany being outliers for very different reasons then. But I don’t see a Netanyahu visit to Germany exactly. That would impose a mega-large political cost.
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Germany isn’t really an outlier there, they are just using much more diplomatic language to say ‘Netanyahu is not welcome here’. No head of state is going to travel to a country where he or she may or may not be arrested. It does the same substantive work as a statement that he will be arrested, without the line in the sand that is politically useful in some places, but a liability somewhere like Germany.
It is not as if the Irish statement has Netanyahu reorganizing any imminent travel plans…
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I agree. But stated it a bit (tbh very) clumsily. My point above was, however, that Netanyahu is not going to Germany and that the “I cannot imagine that the German government would have him arrested if he came here”-line of their spokesman is “theoretical support” but that in practice, the political cost of having him visit is much to high.
Le Monde Editorial :
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