Is there a difference ?
At the macro level, NATO isnât going to do anything without American say-so. But that isnât what is at question here. A visit to Ottawa is a huge headache for the Government. Either they extend diplomatic immunity to bar enforcement of the warrant, or some local Crown Attorney has a chance to make a political career with an arrest (remember Pinochet?) and start a political firestorm. But if they extend diplomatic immunity, they just took sides in a dispute that they have been contorting themselves to avoid doing for over a year (managing to suck and blow at the same time, as it were).
So some 28 year old in PMO gets told to make it impossible. Security complications, logistics, scheduling, or a blunt off-the-record conversation. There is absolutely no question of a Netanyahu visit being welcome. In the current climate of being about to be crushed by the Conservatives, either alienating the Jewish vote or ceding the progressive left to the NDP would be political suicide. They just wonât do it, no matter what the White House wants. A new Conservative government will actually land on fairly similar calculus.
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Yes and they often historically do so.
ICC is generally regarded as in critical interests of the European states and it would be politically extremely costly if western states ignored this; which is why such a visit would not happen in the first place.
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It is also a matter of the rule of law. Absent some very heavy-handed intervention, he would be liable for arrest without the explicit permission of the government. No government is going to put themselves in that situation regarding another head of state - the Pinochet situation was incredibly awkward even decades removed from his status.
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A thought requires actual weighing up of evidence and some kind of reasoning process to arrive at a conclusion.
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Thereâs been a whole lot of those issues in the past as well. Countries do and well extend diplomatic immunity when thereâs another leader visiting. Remember when Modi was persona non grata because of the gujarat riots etc. And heâs openly being allowed to visit now.
Youâre conflating very different issues. Iâd love to see where there have been examples of diplomatic immunity granted to leaders who have international arrest warrants, particularly by NATO members.
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Apples are not oranges.
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U.S. Court Issues Summons to Modi in Lawsuit Over 2002 Riots - The New York Times U.S. Court Issues Summons to Modi in Lawsuit Over 2002 Riots - The New York Times
I would not expect Modi to be visiting Ottawa any time soon, for exactly the same reasons. Every Sikh in the country will want him arrested, most of the other Indo-Canadians would be outraged at the idea. A Modi visit would put the question, good politics and diplomacy is making sure the question doesnât come up.
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There is an unsubtle difference between a US civil lawsuit and an ICC arrest warrant.
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Back in 2005 an Israeli general only avoided arrest in Britain because he was tipped off that , after a complaint had been made against him , a court had ordered an arrest warrant , his plane returning to Israel before the warrant could be served.
There were further instances of Israeli officials , most notably Tzipi Livni but also other generals of the IDF , and the head of Shin Bet , all accused of complicity in war crimes. Iâm not sure how likely that is now but itâs surely not inconceivable that a British PM who was once Director of Public Prosecutions would be minded to follow the law were it to happen again. Netanyahu and his cronies will be painfully aware of that fact.
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As i said , Letâs wait and see.
I hope Iâm proven wrong but thereâs going to be a significant climbdown, especially if Trump has his way.
Regardless of what he would were the situation to get there, Starmer is savvy enough to ensure it doesnât happen. A Trump White House wonât force a NATO member to roll out the red carpet for Netanyahu, but they and Capitol Hill would be going ballistic at the prospect of Netanyahu being detained. Were Starmer to bend the knee on that, his political career would be over. The Labour base would collapse in on him.
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I do expect there will be a climbdown, but it will be on various economic measures, etc. We do quiet hypocrisy quite well while avoiding the spectacular.
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I do think that Trump would expect some countries to unilaterally endorse Israel⌠that too in public.
It will be a unqualified disaster to those leaders, but as i said , lets just hope my thoughts are wrong and those countries have enough of a backbone to refute Trump on this,
Circle discussion not going anywhere, as knowledge donât matter much. So I figured I could share an article I read earlier today.
I liked reading it. Maybe you will too. Or maybe not.
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Most of the NATO heads of state already have the boiler plate âabide by and respectâ statements out now, only the US has condemned them.
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Starmer the genocide-supporting âhuman rights lawyerâ?
https://x.com/philipproudfoot/status/1859579276862902433?s=46&t=Tk6buFVfyHeITdfFRWCVMg