I suspect that this is triggered by the West and their Arab puppets.
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Who in âthe Westâ wants to see an jihadist group get more power in Syria?
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It is starting to hit now - CBC News has a front page story, though not top of the page.
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Source behind those thoughts or just a feeling ? Because that sounds like a Sithbare statement regarding geopolitical events, i.e. not based on actual knowledge. Sorry if I am a bit harsh, you know I very much appreciate you , but it sounds like Arab street level conspiracy theories.
It is not correct, I donât know if you have missed it, but there has been a gradual reallignment in the Arab world to accept the Assad-State for economical and political reasons and âthe Westâ has absolutely no interest in this in any way or form. What possible gain is there in the West from this apart from more refugees that again leads to less social cohesion in the West ? There is none.
You seriously underestimate the jihadist factions, taking the agency from them. The are an umbrella, they cooperate and organise very well and they have been reinforced over the last year from Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere when all eyes in the middle east was focused on Gaza and they are not to be underestimated. Some fools even thougth that the thousands of jihadists warriors were some how entering Syria to fight Israel (yes, this was discussed many months ago). Incorrect, of course. And al-Jolani and his cabal is a much more powerful force than you suspect.
The only ones who have their hands deep in this honeypot is Turkey. They okayed this offensive, they had to, the forces attacking originated partly from areas under the control of the Turkish Army and Turkish military intelligence is deeply embedded in north Syria. But I can guarantee you that they didnât expect this outcome. I suppose you could claim that Turkey is part of the West, but most people would really disagree.
Tonight the offensive in the north kicks off. Against Tell Rifaat and the Afrin Liberation Forces. There is not a snowflakeâs chance in hell that the West wants that. Turkey on the other hand, if you are looking for a puppeteer, then look to Ankarra (but they do not control al-Jolani and Tharir al Sham; though cooperating with them, making deals with them is another matter and they have done this often in the past, but also at times clashed with them).
SNA (Syrian National Army), Turkeyâs factions, strike tonight. 95% certain, if itâs not delayed until tomorrow for logistical reasons. Preparations have long been underway and credible sources have reported force build up and drones in the air. They will be supported by Turkey directly. And they will strike SDF (Afrin Liberation Army) positions and then Aleppo governate is gone.
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Dare I ask ⌠whatâs with all the young boys ?
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The Kurds are probably fucked. I donât see how anyone will save them from Turkeyâs orchestrations. There are going to be large scale ethnic cleansing just like we saw in Afrin and in Euphrates Shield. The poor people had to rely and cooperate with Assad and Russia out of strict necissity. And now the US are drawing down and Trump is on his way in. He will not protect them.
That is Syrian hero and general, Suhayl al-Hasan, âThe Tigerâ, Commander of the Syrian Special Forces, just pictured with some of his many fans that follows him around Syria. Show some respect for Vladimir Putinâs favorite oriental general !
Botox, plastic and traveling with a large entourage of pretty young men is irrelevant, certainly in the macho culture of Syria where homosexuality is frowned upon !
His security is the direct interest of the Kremlin. Suheil goes nowhere, without his Russian GRU-Spetsnaz detachment; by the order of the big man in the Kremlin himself.
Which again means. If he withdraws from Aleppo like I reported earlier, that means that the Kremlin has assessed that it has fallen or about to fall.
The spider web of warlords in Syria is very interesting. Suheilâs unit, the Tiger Forces, are the âeliteâ of the SAA, Maher al Assadâs 4th division (remnants of it) is the other âgood unitâ and Maherâs 4th is under Iranian sway. The Tiger Forces Russian sway.
The sovreignty of Bashar al Assad is a (not very pretty) illusion, as foreign powers directly controls and sponsors the best of the remnants of his army.
And Uncle Vladimir has decided that he cannot afford to do anything about this and Khamenei has his own problems. IRGC is seriously weakened. And Hezbollah has just suffered a large military defeat and they pulled out of Syria when Israel attacked them, so ⌠Basharâs options areâŚnot goodâŚ
Iran will come to their aid, probably. But can iran afford to aid them a lot ? Probably not. Itâs not 2016 anymore. Can Russia afford to ship a large contigent and reinforce their air force substantially with munitions, aircrafts and pilots ? Definately not.
And the aid of these outside actors have a price. The price is that the more they aid, the more they directly controls Assad and more (economic and strategic deals, + the lucrative drug trade).
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" Blyat ! Igor Kustyukov, I just met with our Syrian suka. What the hell is happening !? He is begging me for reinforcements and for the Russian contigent to increase bombing rates, but the muâdak is now telling me that Aleppo is about to fall to the rats ? Blyat ! Fucking suka, sand-fucking Suka !"
Hand trembling and Kustyukov looks down as to not embarras the Tzar
âSend Sasha, Igor! At least Sasha knows the lay of the land and he is useless in Ukraine anyway! Da, Vladimir Vladimirovich! At once, Vladimir Vladimirovich!â
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Turkey??? Thatâs NATO!
CHECKMATE ATHEI- @Magnus
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1862503901959762268
The canât keep up with maps part is very accurate. Fucked up. This entire offensive, the groups involved, their enemies, the civilians in between and those poor Kurds without friends; all of it makes me very uncomfortable.
I know many who are cheering. But many good people will also be despairing.
Some fears being expressed about what this might mean for the Alawite minority (which is strongly tied to the Assad regime, but not universally happily so). While the coalition is not ISIS and are somewhat pragmatic, al-Qaeda was not known for religious tolerance.
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Yeah, we are not at the coast yet though. Not many Alawites in Aleppo Governate. But Alawite conscripts taken prisoners, sigh.
Not that I would trust these words in any form or way, but the journey al-Jolani has traveled from Al Qaida prince of the shadows, riding a horse in the night from farm to farm, to a Al Qaida trained warlord in the open, to a national warlord is remarkable.
An impressive figure in so many ways. But dangerous as hell. The upside is that his warriors are very diciplined. Far more so than Turkeyâs hounds.
But unsettling. All of this is very unsettling.
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https://x.com/VivaRevolt/status/1862587533764256052
They probably have to if you look at a map (and donât trust the Turks or the Salafists). If they donât, they will have no where to escape and I am sure they have bargained yesterday and today, with al Jolaniâs war council.
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Just throwing this out here. If you think they donât have a strategy and are just foaming at the mouth berserkers who needs outside direction, you are likely wrong. For good or ill, they have a long developed strategy.
https://x.com/xumas_iq/status/1862574406729392609
Uncertain what will happen in decemberâŚ
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The only israeli paper I have taken seriously. Times of Israel is ok, when it comes to general news, but only Haaretz dares be critical of the government.
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@Iftikhar I am sorry if you think this is a diversion from the ongoing tragedy in Gaza. It is, just like Gaza was a diversion for Ukraine and took attention from them. Itâs how it is, tragedies compete for peopleâs attention, often dictators and authoritarians will exploit that and launch a campaign when global eyes are elsewhere.
I know many want this thread to be about the israeli-Palestinian conflict only. If it was up to me, there would be seperate threads.
I just want to apologice for all the war-news to those who want to inform and focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But for now, this is the Middle East thread. Itâs not enough really. There should be more threads for individual conflicts of note; but for now I will post about Syria here now. But yes, it is my opinion that when conflicts spirals out of control and become wars, one thread isnât really ideal.
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