Between the prisoners taken, and the prospect of a collapse. Most of the regime forces are presumably falling back on Damascus rather than along the Idlib-Latakia axis.
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I am not sure yet of their movements. But they have to stop them in Hama or they are fucked. Even that is obviously horrible. The loss of Aleppo Governate is extraordinary bad. And from a military technical view as well as economical, controling the M5 highway is absolutely critical.
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He is not wrong. Then again, they are stabbing others too.
https://x.com/markito0171/status/1862549941295460411
I worry when I see someone like Erdogan using the word âvoluntaryâ
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But when I have had time to think, I am pretty sure that they are are withdrawing to Marat-al-Numan as well as Hama, some will also withdraw for Aleppo International Airport (which they must defend, because if it falls, they will not be able to reinforce by air any longer) and will gather forces there for a while, and then launch a substantial counter offensive, which will probably be very soviet-like, destructive and slow, like usual.
But they have been taken pants down and their troops are shit with horrid morale, with even worse officers. So they react slowly after first doing marathon runs. The economical (and demographic) cost of retaking Aleppo the Russian way, will be astronomical and I donât even understand how they can afford that now at this time. The question is also how much Turkey intervenes directly, because there are not that many Russians and not that many iranians there now to help the SAA; so they donât stand a chance against the Turkish air force.
But yes, I have been reading about preparations for this offensive since october, so it is not as if they did not have intelligence on the preparations. The timing obviously seemingly a shock to them and being corrupt and dogshit, they donât do the basic and fortify properly and run at the sight of the first Jihad-mobile.
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Yes, one should. After all, no one in the world is better at Ethnic Cleansing and getting away with it, than Ankarra.
Northern Syria, Kurdish towns and villages now populated by Turk-friendly Sunnis and extremely few Kurds. Nagorno-Karabagh, land held by Armenians for over a 1000 years, now void of Armenians.
But itâs all voluntary. After a few hundred artillery shells, a few drone attacks, some executions and after the water has been cut to a village, of course. A pretty good Ethnic Engineer, Erdogan.
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Again, Al-Jolani and his War Council, they have a strategy. And it far, far evolved since 2012-2016
https://x.com/E_of_Justice/status/1862471138623766861
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1862530804435374576
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1862530804435374576
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1862439299179766242
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1862598606936560033
https://x.com/markito0171/status/1862594688919728498
Elsewhere
BTW, RU airforce active again, but they are bombing northern Aleppo and the Turk-backed rebels tonight, to hinder an assault on YPG-positions.
It is all very chaotic and strange this.
Bashar al-Assad is still in Moscow for consultationsâŚ
Have a good night everyone.
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Night Reading (or morning), for those who want to know about the ultra fucked up developments, since I had a bit more time to post sources now. Get yourself a large cup of tea or coffem aybe a glass or two of wine, some peanuts or food and start reading carefully this post. At the end of it (it will be rather long) you will have a better understanding of the situation than the journalist now writing the article you might be able to read tomorrow. You donât have to trust me, just read in order and then decide:
The Aleppo citadel was never taken, even back when rebel factions held most of Aleppo. Absurd to give it up without a fight. The garrison there held out for several years under operational encirclement.
HTS demands the evacuation of Kurdish forces from the Kurdish enclave in Aleppo, or it will attack:
https://x.com/ALBADIA24/status/1862620918977081837
The Military Operations Department calls on the leaders and members of the SDF militia to evacuate the Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods in Aleppo city
https://x.com/VivaRevolt/status/1862621687033758123
https://x.com/kurdishblogger/status/1862603406898004070
https://x.com/al_jalal93/status/1862620951008964712
It remains for the Hayâat Tahrir al-Sham and al-Nusra, any clash with the Kurds is not in their interest at all and serves the regime, but the drums of war in Tal Rifaat point to the chaos of 2013, especially if they take Aleppo. Sheikh Maqsoud is a sensitive location.
https://x.com/Rojwar12/status/1862623129106817135
More than fifty vehicles and armored vehicles loaded with weapons belonging to the Syrian Democratic Forces enter the neighborhoods of Aleppo city and its countryside, including the areas of Tal Hasil, Tal Aran, Ahrazah, and the Shahba district.
https://x.com/BroderickM_/status/1862561515368325498
https://x.com/BroderickM_/status/1862565988404809975
https://x.com/ZachPolicy/status/1862626920841572647
https://x.com/DeirEzzore/status/1862628519953453566
The coming hours will be fateful for the actual presence of the SDF in northwestern Syria. It is a fateful day, and all possibilities are on the table.
https://x.com/EuphratesPost/status/1862632033983635695
48 hours; Complete calm on the fronts between the âSDFâ and the Assad regime along the contact points in Deir Ezzor. The security committee and the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued strict orders to the militias in the areas under their control in Deir Ezzor to stop the disturbances of the SDF military points on the banks of the Euphrates River that have been ongoing for months, in an effort to neutralize the SDF from the âdeterrence of aggressionâ battle that the Syrian opposition factions are waging in northern Syria.
Furat Post correspondent
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1862609887592947899
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862561752933613648
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862561781371011571
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862561786530041887
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862561790766280888
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862561795870781549
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862561801159811290
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862561806478168108
(they have the city now really).
https://x.com/ScharoMaroof/status/1862623820055482836
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1862626736824856709
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1862622022137712676
https://x.com/ser_kurd/status/1862636565693976654
We will defend ourselves, the SDF has nothing to do with the organization and the Assad regime
https://x.com/ZaidBenjamin5/status/1862636266917175659
Reuters: Syrian opposition sources in contact with Turkish intelligence say TĂźrkiye has given green light to attack Aleppo.
https://x.com/gbrew24/status/1862638735201853702
The question is, why is he still there ?? The longer he is abroad, the less morale his shitty army has.
https://x.com/edresbodabest/status/1862645698442703063
Qasd militias entered the Kurdish Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhood in Aleppo and were welcomed by the residents with celebrations.
Al-Qaeda members entered the villages of the western countryside and reached the middle of Aleppo city, and the people welcomed them with joy.
Will Bashar al-Assad understand that his popularity has reached rock bottom and made the people of one city prefer the militias to his regime?
https://x.com/HoshangHesen/status/1862590196094517476
https://x.com/HoshangHesen/status/1862590199441633375
https://x.com/Hani_Deek/status/1862651215558922407
https://x.com/Hani_Deek/status/1862651218000011333
Interesting opinion. seems like al-Golani is doing partly some of it; for now.
Abu Tow in Aleppo (some of you probably know him)
https://x.com/suheilhammoud/status/1862646163523944888
https://x.com/Mahmoud0Hussin/status/1862640469877891510
Urgent: Reinforcements of the Syrian Democratic Forces arrive in Manbij. Increase in the number of forces in anticipation of any Turkish military attack.
https://x.com/Rsherlock/status/1862625901235605727
Yepp, but with modifications, since the offensive was known to have been prepared in october and planning likely started earlier.
https://x.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1862657463914217550
https://x.com/markito0171/status/1862660943399858499
https://x.com/markito0171/status/1862661256429113586
8 hours after saa evacuated the hospital, they bomb it.
https://x.com/ZaidBenjamin5/status/1862667520509182063
Reuters, citing three official military sources: The Syrian army has received orders to carry out a safe withdrawal from the main areas in Aleppo that the rebels have entered.
https://x.com/fcbahn/status/1862663222643368147
Thousands of fighters from Homs and Hama governorates are preparing to advance towards the southern Idlib countryside with the participation of the military administration of the liberated areas.
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LolâŚ
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862646070553067950
Also lol.
some nasty earth shatteringly awful stuff happening tonight and you need some humour at times, no offence !
https://x.com/GorillaOSINT/status/1862607431978684555
https://x.com/cleba76/status/1862520189918630066
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https://x.com/joshua_landis/status/1862669883495899434
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1862620739850944825
https://x.com/azelin/status/1862632336854327488
https://x.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1862626937920799218
https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1862522499906347129
https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1862524474437861386
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1862621251954475255
https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1862505710447157631
That should be all for now, more absolute mayhem tomorrow. If there is interest for this type of reporting. If not, I wonât bother and just add the odd comment now and then without data. But I prefer to teach and enlighten, so willing to spend some time if there is genuine interest.
âŚ
https://x.com/LostWeapons/status/1862684884952813843
https://x.com/LostWeapons/status/1862685646449754225
So much this, cease fires are never a solution to anything. They are always potential wars. No one shoud ever wish for a cease fire, only fools do so. What they should wish for is a political settlement, a security pact or full victory. But a cease fire alone is pretty shit and very dangerousâŚ
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I donât know what to feel about this, because on the one hand, theyâre jihadists, but on the other, these are clearly positive steps for the welfare of the people in the places they control.
A big thumbs up from me. Having you curate all this stuff is a great way for the rest of us to stay informed.
Maybe itâs a lot for some to scroll through , so when I think itâs helpful I will post articles which I think give a decent potted history.
This is not bad for starters ;
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Iâm wondering if Assad is staying in Moscow because he fears the imminent collapse of all his forces.
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Just find it a weird coincidence that anti Assad forces suddenly find a second wind after the US elections.
And ofcourse US doesnât have any prior history of supporting terrorist outfits.