Attempting to build a nation, not merely winning battles. Part 384040
Extremely ironically, the Kurds may have to ally with HTS to surive. Right now, it looks like it. Hayar Tharir al Sham can possibly protect them against SNA. Dhimmi status is better than being cleansed.
Time will tell.
A reminder of the absolute massive war loot being plundered now (and in the past). Far more than any foreign state has ever delivered in the past.
https://x.com/tobiaschneider/status/1863545146328875159
There is a claim now I read that HTS has captured 800 000 Grad rockets. Maybe that is a large overestimation and exaggerated propaganda. But even if it’s just 200 000, that is a freaking lot when you don’t have large artillery units and Russian artillery doctrine.
The rebel offensive in Syria could drag Türkiye into a conflict with Russia, - AP
I don’t believe that. But it’s analysis being pandered by some in washington.
Regarding loss of hardware above, Jesus Christ on a rocket propelled bike!
And the add to that, the munitions and chemical research factory. Massive loot.
Newswires now reporting significant movements of Iraqi Shi’ite militia into Syria to help Assad’s forces.
Yes, a colum of those guys were already bombed yesterday. There are going to be several thousand of them coming still.
But the border is where it is. They are not going to help the regime in Hama governate for some days. If they are even going there in the first place.
I reported about this ethnic cleansing days ago.
Here is a video. You see in this video civilians mostly as well as the YPG millitants, but the YPG are locals, all local Kurds there rely on them. So all the civilians leave. Look at it more as local departments of a tribal militia more as a monolithic organisation.
Sheik Maqsudh is now mostly empthy. Kurds now moving towards Raqqa. Raqqa isn’t really Kurdish land, but Turkey has systematically cleansed them from the border region, their ancestral lands. I’ll note that the public outrage over Kurds being ethnically cleansed is never really very high. One reason is that they are not considered, most of them, very religious, so many don’t consider them to be proper Muslims and so there is no activism in the Middle east for them to pull at western social justice heartstrings. Just my observation. Kurds have always been worth less in the Middle East. A troublesome people living amongst cultures that do not really accept them and with few friends. That is also why they always must ally with plague, when cholera is about to kill them. So Kurds in Syria, depending on where they are located, cooperate with Russia in one place, the USA in another, Assad in another, and Salafists in another. They have to simply.
As I have been saying a few days ago, this was happening:
Everyone who was following the region and geopolitics closely, knew this , as it’s been widely discussed in segments of media and policy experts for years now, how many previously Assad-hostile states were seeking a detente, because they thought that he was secure, it was fait accompli and better for them economically to lower tensions etc.
People prone to conspiracy theories tend to not actually read proper information and discussions by experts very closely before speaking authoritatively about a matter, which is highly problematic (mostly because these people never tend to admit they are wrong or apologice, which is the true problem with such people).
Approximate, but not completely accurate of course, map of the current frontline situation.
It was quite accurate early this morning and advance has stopped for now as the regime has gathered at Hama and counter attacked out of Hama city:
Sheiq Maqsud in Aleppo is however no longer yellow (so map is wrong there), and eventually there will probably be no yellow at all in Aleppo governate due to forced evacuation of Kurds. Problematically, this map does not properly differentiate HTS from SNA. It does show Euphrates Shield (Turkey’s protectorate) in dark blue though, which is something.
(Obviously the map will soon be outdated by nightfall and there are several grey zones of active assaults being made, as well as repelled)
SNA being SNA.
https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1863611137192824848
In other terms: a gateway to hell for the whole civil population. My thoughts go out to them. Alongside the Gazeans and the Libanese people, they must suffer because of ruthless, opportunistic rulers who only look at their own benefit, and are incapable anyway of seeing the bigger picture.
It’s a shame, but alas, nothing new in that region.
(No, he does not think it is actually Ukrainians, but it does show the proliferation of FPV drones since Russia’s invasion started and how warfare has changed the last few years):
I am not going to pretend to know what this could mean, if anything at all. It could be huff and puff, or it could be more. Far easier to predict who wins the Premier League than what will come out of this.
But of course, Trump will defend the interests of the Far Right government Israel in a way that the Biden administration was unwilling to, that is clear enough and well known.
I have predicted annextion of parts of the West Bank before, if Trump won, but this is about Hamas in Gaza and the hostages, so who knows what this means. One can guess. My guess is nothing good.
Iran might be worried. I would be busy planning if I were them…
Right now, there are US strikes on Iranian millitias, Russian air strikes on other factions, Turkish orchestrated strikes on Kurdish factions and if Israel sees an important Hezbollah or Iranian figure around Damascus, there would probably be Israeli strikes as well.
Everyone and their little homeless dog, are attacking someone. Also, reports are that Hama is about to fall and that Assad regime has begun retreating to Homs (not sure about this).
In other news, HTS has captured a BUK system, a Pantsir (not sure about the pantsir) and some old soviet sams as well. And 3 more T-90s and many more t-72 as well as unfathomable number of munitions.
I don’t see how this can be stopped right now, as everyone is scrambling to go on the offensive since everyone else is going on the offensive. First HTS, then Turkey scrambles, then domino and now all is bat shit crazy.
Edit: Forgot to add that HTS has captured much of Assad’s air force intact, in air bases in Aleppo Governate. Migs (9 of them at least in Aleppo), helicopters, 9, I think, training jets. A LOT of stuff. Serious stuff. Let us also add another fact , they have some pilots. SNA have defector pilots, I would not be surprised if HTS have too. Not saying they are about to fly, mind you. But in enough time, not completely unrealistic.
Such a shitshow. The world is really going to shit.
Elsewhere in Syria
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1863943086130307095
I feel like I need a huge Venn diagram for Syria to work out who is fighting who.
It’s like learning passable Latin in 6 months from scratch.
There were decent Venn diagrams in 2016, but they are too outdated to post. I could not find a truly updated one. Alliances have shifted, groups have been rebranded or merged.
Wikipedia is ok, but not perfect.
Ultra simplistic one is this one some American made on reddit:
