Rebels have freed all the prisoners in Hama central prison.
https://x.com/Al7khalidi/status/1864648584726990898
This guy Ajmenn is responding to, has higher education, runs a paper, but understands nothing.
I don’t entirely get how it is possible to be this ignorant. To not understand basic military and political realities. To actually think that Russia and Iran could wave a bloody wand around, or teleport their land based armies, into Syria on a whim. It’s all so basic to me that I struggle to understand such “analysts”. It’s as if they know nothing about the reality of the Russo-Ukrainian war, as if they know nothing about the latest Israeli-Lebanese war, as if they ddon’t undderstand Iran’s position. It’s as if they think it is 2015 and that the “Patron powers” are not hugely busy with their own shit.
https://x.com/mashabani/status/1864654717592215607
WOW !!!
Amnesty International are usually very prudent and avoid exaggerating accusations in order to stay credible. If they use the word genocide, then we can all consider it official from now on (if there was any remaining doubt for anyone, that is).
I have seen some serious contemplation of that possibility, but presented as the basis as an argument that Iran has miscalculated badly. The idea is that Iran tapered its support with the intent of bringing Assad to heel, not with the intent of creating a massive window of opportunity for HTS. There is no suggestion that Iran is now capable of reversing it - though I am sure the Israelis would be thrilled if they tried. Any such effort would present a wealth of politically and militarily easy targets for the air strikes they want to slap Iran with.
I think it’s pretty much common parlance now to anyone who isn’t buying the hasbarah.
I would like to read such serious contemplation. I have not seen anything I could consider serious. But if this is the case, it will have political repecussions in Tehran and we will eventually hear of it sooner rather than very much later.
But Iran has still forces IRGC advisors in Syria, but they get picked at now aand then by the US (but chiefly Israel), and now rebels. Iran recently lost (I think I reported it above 3-4 days ago) a brigadeer general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard at Aleppo. And they have had far more losses that that so far in this campaign. The direct military footprint of Iran in Syria has also never been big. It has been IRGC advisors and a few IRGC special forces.But chiefly these have been leading (and organising and founding) the Shia militia units, consisting of Syrians, Iraqis, Afghans and some others. This is principally how the IRGC projects force. There have never been Iranian regulars in Syria participating in the Civil War, except from the IRGC. But again, IRGC advisors mostly lead Syrian and Iraqi militis and advise them. This was what Soleimani set up during his tenure as IRGC chief of Foreign Operations. They also embedded with Hezbollah and Hezbollah had tens of thousands of fighters in Syria, but after Oct 7, Hezbollah started withdrawing from Syria to Lebanon because of the posibility of outbreak of war with israel. And when Israel finally invaded (walkie talkies also exploded in Syria), they withdraw almost everything. Still, a few Hezbollah including a note worthy commander, has been killed in fighting around Aleppo.
So I don’t see this miscalculation really. I just think Iran was unprepared andd busy elsewhere. They started activating Iraqi IRGC supported militias when it became clear that the HTS offensive was serious, but that takes time and the US bombs their convoys from Iraq.
But again, time will tell. We’ll see. If there is anything in it, we will read about it relatively soon.
This is both the very obvious next step for Trump and portends terribly to what comes next
It was reported over the last two days (I don’t post everything for obvious reasons) that the city of Salamiyah, home of the Shite religious minority " Isma’ilism" , that their tribal leaders, have been bargaining with al Jolani.
Today, they opened their city to the Prince’s forces who entered without a fight.
This is the second largest city in Hama and some analyst thought it would withstand a long siege against HTS. But instead, Jolani has promised them leniency, so it’s captured for free now after the locals demanded State withdrawal.
Salamiyah:
Two hours ago, regime forces abandoned the city and withdrew. Rebel forces are now entering the city quietly, encountering no resistance.
CONFIRMED: All traces of Assad’s forces have withdrawn from Hama’s second-largest city, Salamiyeh. The city is home to the Ismailis, a religious minority in Syria that has largely opposed the Assad regime.
I have just spoken with relatives from the area, who confirm that local community leaders are offering reassurances that negotiations with opposition forces have had a positive outcome.
This marks a new era for the opposition and serves as a test of their ability to demonstrate tolerance and respect for diversity. So much of what has happened so far is encouraging, indicating that we may be on the brink of a post-Assad Syria. Rami al-jarrah.
A crazy map right now. And this is probably outdated…
(there are still regime forces inside Hama city in the south, but HTS allowing them exit road, probably on purpose).
More crazy Nation Building news (still just a rumour now) from the former Al Qaida in Syria commander, Al Jolani.
Like some say, what the hell is this timeline we are living in.
Kurdish Democratic Union Party, Salih Muslim: "We are ready for dialogue with “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” in order to build a future for coexistence in Syria.
Salih Muslim is basically the political head of the YPG guerilla. So SDF (and I suppose PKK, if you are Turkish).
Marxist-Leninists, Christians, as well as Shite minorities, acquiescing to Al Jolani. What a bat shit time to live in.
https://x.com/hxhassan/status/1864800218316681689
Hassan calls it “definitive”. I would caution about falling into the trap and taking it as categorical objective facts. But I have read similar intervews. But I doubt newslinesmag knows “everything”. Those who know everything are unlikely to tell the objective facts in a while yet. There are political considerations to take into account.
Ah, ok.
https://x.com/haidari700/status/1864787955350421717
Syrian opposition factions captured Hama air base, capturing 4 MiG-21s and an L-39.