Lol…
1 Like
It’s not idiocy if you get away with it. 
1 Like
My points above, has been that I don’t think they do get away with it. That is why I am calling it idiotic. Creating enemies has long term consequences, mostly negative ones.
2 Likes
https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1866559831907373244
1 Like
Not when you have permanent carte blanche to do whatever you like.
2 Likes
You are saying essentially exactly what Ifthikar said. What I am trying to say, is that Carte Blanchè isn’t relevant for what I was talking about, as I am not talking about a hypotethical outside UN or US power stopping them. I know they have that and for years to come. But what I am trying to get across is that their strategic position does not improve, it gets worse.
It’s my opinion that what they have done is idiotic anyway. And It’s my opinion that it has negative consequences for them both politically and in the security realm. And it is also in my opinion that it didn’t have to be this way. I think they are short sighted strategically.
But that’s my opinion.
4 Likes
I agree with you that what they have done is both idiotic and unnecessary. But there aren’t going to be any repercussions for them for as long as America supports them.
If the US does ever withdraw its backing of Israel, which is highly unlikely, then I agree with you: Israel’s current actions will come back to haunt it.
2 Likes
I think it can have other consequences, not as overt as losing US support and actual critical military threat to their statehood. But they are producing future bumps in the road. And the Syrian rebels were surprisingly positive to Israel, since Israel has over the years, bombed Hezbollah and Assad targets. They reached out to them, even HTS. They they cut their hand off. I do not think this prudent, as if there is one thing jihadists are interested in, it is upholding pride. And if you humiliate them, then they will try to go after you, perhaps not overtly, they don’t stand a chance against the IDF, but supplying Hamas, perhaps not going after the IRGC in the region in the manner they otherwise would. But I was not only talking about the jihadists, but also more secular Syrians. They did not want conflict with Israel. And I do not think it’s in the actual strategic interest of Israel to increase tension.
Besides, the weapons and material they destroyed, was the Syrian navy and air force, both no threat to Israel at all as an example. Those ships could never have been used against them, those planes would have been shot down long before they could drop a bomb against them, and so on. It’s mostly just a Thug Statement. And I don’t think it is wise. The Israelis have been trying for years (remember the Abraham Accord ) to have detente with the Arab states, a detente that was put on freeze on Oct 7 and the Israeli response. It is in their interest to have economic and political relations.
1 Like
As is everything they’ve done over the last fourteen months.
2 Likes
But time will tell. But once Israel was a very popular country in the West. No more. It has lost a lot of legitimacy over the last few decades. They have the US and Germany and a few other European states left. Not many. Quite few.
They are not immune to political damage. Protected by the American Shield, yes, but they are not otherwise immune.
2 Likes
Yes. But I don’t think the way they wage the Gaza campaign is wise either, so there is that.
Lebanon is different, that was a success for them. But Gaza is a disaster politically speaking. The anti Israel sentiments in the world today are probably greater than ever…
1 Like
I honestly think that Germany is on the brink of changing. The government, any government, won’t be able to uphold a policy in the long term which isn’t approved of among the population.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1866764450768027943
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1866629989200019732
(It’s been well known in many circles that HUR have had a few operators going after Russian troops and assets in both Mali, evidenced by ambushes against Wagner in Mali and previous drone attack on Heimemnem air base in Syria as well as an operator posting alongside rebels with an actual Ukraining flag some months ago). 20 operators and a mere 150 FPV drones is not much for Ukraine, They use much more than 150 per day in Ukraine. It’s negligble expenditure for Ukraine for great effect.
It was however very, very amusing to see the Russian propaganda during the rebel offensive, where Budanov was literally leading the offensive 
What would that say about the several thousand strong Russian contigent, including Spetznas, with their own drone operators, if a small handful of Ukrainian drone operators could collapse their house of cards in Syria.
2 Likes
Ehem, a bit of a repost (one of the videos), but why not. Calibraobscura was the first I saw to recognice that certain FPV drones were operated by Ukrainian (apart from those the ukrainians themselves released months ago).
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1863657656713437515
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1863177636173783234
I mean, look at this video. It’s straight out of the Russo-Ukrainian war, in oh so many ways. The way they chat, the way they point, the way the drone flies oh so well and so straight into a bunker opening and the very understated and war hardened/blasè Ukrainian commentary when the drone hits their targets.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1863170462903091652
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1863657656713437515
Obfuscated a tad with music (but of course they were embadded with rebels and not solo):
https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1863636683490545862?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1863657656713437515|twgr^0ba22b06eb20dacb7b5f83fde9429b6915c95c8d|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheanfieldnoise.com%2Ft%2Fthe-middle-east-thread%2F3424%2F5821
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866812061067436459
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866812062984208457
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866812065710739499
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866812610697388411
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866812789139914915
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866813419321450657
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866813576502980712
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1866814193552462223
1 Like
Wouldn’t that just focus Russian efforts back on them? Would be the sole remaining “prestige” project going on…
Lots of discussion about Syrian refugees returning home. I am amazed to find out that the Ottawa area only has about 5,000. Apparently one of the clusters is a neighbourhood near me, which has made the community disproportionately visible to me (Syrian restaurants, a bakery/pastry shop).
There are going to be some difficult family conversations, there is one family I know of who arrived with four girls between ages 5 and 10. That was nine years ago. Moving back as young women is going to be a difficult transition, even leaving aside the difficult circumstances the country will be in.
5 Likes
Still saying the right words so far…
1 Like
The Middle East and Africa oriental colonist adventure is low cost in terms of manpower and ammunition, but important for the Russian economy and it’s prestige. 3-4 thousand trooops doesn’t matter much in Ukraine, the scale is vastly bigger than that.
It’s much more important to create costs for Russia everywhere you can. That helps Ukraine much more than 3-4 thousand troops does. Syria has been used as a vaccation spot, rotating troops out of Ukraine to a pleasant deployment in Syria for years now. It’s the best deployment any russian soldier in the field can hope for. Lording over some militias in Syria , tanning in the sun and having a drink or 10.
People were sent there as rewards usually. Then later, deployment in Ukraine again and so on.
The actual combat batallions, such as artillery units, were withdrawn a long time ago and are busy in Europe. Syria had some special forces and Russian marines these days, as well as 9-12 Russian fighter bombers. Recupperation, while still doing an important job for Russia.
That and a way to use their navy in a prestigious manner. And they can’t use that in Ukraine anyway, since the Bosphorus is closed.
I mean, a few thousand troops in Syria. I don’t know if people realise (probably not, I suppose), but Russian equippment losses in their offensive against Pokrovst alone, is higher than the Wehrmacht had in Stalingrad (German manpower losses obviously higher, since they had much more total infantry involved).
(and this count is old now)
The battles in Ukraine are historically large. Syria is…nothing, in terms of that. Nothing in the Middle East or elsewhere in the world comes anywhere close.
This is the count from 15 of November, and still, Pokrovst is not taken.
https://x.com/naalsio26/status/1859024133327384844
So yeah, 10 000 troops in the Middle East and Africa, troops that contribute a hell of a lot to Russian political power, economy and prestige ? Obviously worth it ! And do not underestimate the power of morale. The Russians are quite, quite, quite sad; while the Ukranians are equally happy regarding Syria. A major morale boost for the Ukrainian troops (and civil society) fighting extraordinary difficult battles in Europe. A strategic defeat for Russia elsewhere in the world, creates euphoria in Ukraine.
2 Likes
On the topic of refugees returning home. Most will wait and see it seems…
4 Likes