Thanks for all the info @Magnus it is most appreciated. I read the articles and threads above too, so feel like I have a good handle on the situation.
One article said Iran was very close to having the bomb, and is now in the assembly stage. Israel appears to be trying to give them a reason to use it, should Iran cross the threshold.
Iran is in a precarious position. They can harm Israel, and I expect we will see at least some of that, but to do too much risks all out war, with America involved, and the potential end of the Iranian Republic.
I suspect the bomb is too deep underground to be taken out with bombs from above. Iranâs military leadership is being decapitated, and their deterrent is being severely damaged.
As such, the situation looks all the more dangerous to me because of it.
Firstly, they would be cut to pieces. They have about two squadrons worth, minimal experience, currently in training. The F-16s they fly are dumbed down compared to those the IAF have, and Iraq has nowhere near the ECM/ECCM/AWACs set up that the Israelis do. Unless the US pushed them do it, they would be flying up not just blind but quite possibly sending signals directly to the IAF controls. The Israeli routes almost certainly went over the Kurdish regions for many good operational reasons, further limiting what Iraq could do.
Note that the last time something like this occurred, Iraq just closed their airspace, shut down civilian aviation, and waited it out while their neighbours ignored their pleas to respect their air space.
