The Middle East Thread

Yepp. He is not.

But there have been a lot of talk about it. In fact, sources say (Baskin, one of the best sources possible as he is and has been involved in negotiations), most Israeli involved in the negotiations are actually possible to releasing him beause they think he can contribute positively to a peace process. The problem is the victory narrative for Hamas (because they would exploit it as a huge victory), and hardliners in Israel don’t want to see a victory narrative being shaped, of course. So it is actually possible that he will be released (as I said, they are actively talking about it internally in Israel).

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I think many will find this post intersting if they want to know behind the scenes details:

October 9, 2025

A first short note on some thoughts this morning.
Gershon Baskin

This is definitely a morning for celebration. The war is ending. The killing and destruction will stop. The Israeli hostages will be coming home – the living and the deceased. For Palestinians, there will be celebrations with the release of Palestinian prisoners and detainees from Gaza. Israelis and Palestinians will be able to breathe again.

First, we all have to thank President Trump and his emissary Steve Witkoff, and of course Jared Kushner, who helped to put the full court press on Israel and on Hamas. Trump and Witkoff made sure that the Qatari Prime Minister, the Egyptian Minister of Intelligence, and the Turkish head of Intelligence were all together for the final push. This was a brilliant move. Trump locked Netanyahu into the agreement and the Qataris, Egyptians and Turks locked Hamas into the agreement.

There are still details that we don’t know but what is important is that this agreement is a declaration of the end of the war – not a temporary ceasefire. There are guarantees that the war will not be renewed once Hamas releases all of the hostages. We don’t know the exact details of those guarantees – I had made some suggestions to the US and Hamas negotiators, but I don’t know at this time what has been concluded. We also don’t know for sure the names of the Palestinian prisoners who will be released and what are the terms of their release.

What we should know is that this deal could have done a long time ago. Hamas agreed to all of the same terms in September 2024 in what became known as the “Three Weeks Deal” that I had received in writing and voice message in Arabic and in English. But at that point the response of the Israeli negotiators was that “the Prime Minister did not agree to end the war”. Even though the “Three Week Deal” proposal landed on the desk of President Biden, his person in charge, Bret McGurk, refused to sway from the bad deal that he was negotiating. I met with members of the American negotiating team in October 2024 and they were as frustrated as I was in their inability to convince Biden and Biden’s people to look seriously at the deal on the table. The Qataris invited me to Doha in October 2024 and I presented to them the deal that Hamas agreed to, which they were fully aware of but they said without the American adoption of the plan, nothing could be done, because the obstacle was Israel, not Hamas. That is the same message I received from the Egyptian intelligence – Hamas was ready for a deal to release all of the hostages, not to govern Gaza and longer and to end the war. But Israel was not ready. On December 26, 2024 I met with Ronen Bar in his office in the Shin Bet headquarters. In that meeting, three weeks before Trump entered the White House, I was requested not to use my back channels, because “in three weeks there will be a ceasefire deal”. Trump told Netanyahu that he wants a ceasefire before he enters the White House, and Ronen Bar knew it would happen and it did on January 19, 2025. To me it was clear that President Biden projected American weakness while President Trump projects American power. From that moment, on December 26, 2024 it was clear to me that the only way that the war would come to an end is when President Trump makes the decision that it has to end. From that time, my primary efforts were to communicated with Steve Witkoff and find a way of working a back channel between the American side and Hamas – knowing that the negotiation did not have to be directly with the Israeli side. The Israeli side would accept whatever Trump forced them to accept. In December 2024, Samer Sinijlawi heard that Witkoff would be speaking at a Bitcoin conference in Abu Dhabi. He suggested that we invest the money to go there and to stakeout Witkoff in order to make first contact. We did that and we managed to speak with him, exchange cards and we gave him an article that Samer and I authored together. That investment paid off completely.

Jumping ahead – after hours of working the back channel, on September 8, 2025 Hamas received from the Qatari Prime Minister the American proposal that I assisted in drafting together with Hamas negotiators. I was on the telephone with the American side at the same hour that the Qataris were presenting to Hamas the final American proposal at 10:00 pm on September 8. I was told by the American side that Hamas planned to spend September 9 discussing the proposal and getting clarifications from the Americans, through me and the Qataris on issues such as the lines of the Israeli withdrawal, the nature of the guarantees that the war would not be renewed when Hamas releases all of the hostages. Then Israel bombed the home of Khalil al Haya and that phase of the negotiations ended. On September 10 one of the Hamas negotiators contacted me and said that the whole leadership survived the attacked and that the Qataris had instructed them to not go out and not to use their telephones at all. Hamas was convinced that the attack could not have happened without the agreement of Trump. Despite the American denials, Hamas no longer trusted that Trump and the Americans were working in good faith. The proposed American guarantees were no longer relevant. I was requested by the Americans to tell the Hamas leadership that the Americans had nothing to do with the attack and that the US and President Trump were still committed to reaching an agreement to end the war.

Hamas’s messages to me were that they had no faith in the Americans because Israel could not have attacked in Doha without the American agreement. On September 10 at 1:22 am Witkoff sent me the following message: “We had zero to do with this. They (the Israelis) have apologized to us. Their statement confirms this. And the President’s Truth Social post attests to it.”

During the period between the Israeli attack in Doha and September 19, I was working on ways to get back to the point where we were negotiating the end of the war, with all of the details. Hamas was in a paralysis mode and did not know what to do or how to get back to talks about ending the war.

On September 19, in the late evening Witkoff called me and said “we have a plan”. We had a long conversation and I supported what the Americans were planning and I made a few suggestions on how to get Hamas on board. I was requested to convince the Hamas leadership that Trump was serious and wants the war to end. Throughout the last months I have been in contact with 8 members of the Hamas leadership outside of Gaza. Three of them engaged with me in discussions. I did not make suggestions regarding the Israeli side because for over a year I believed that if President Trump decides that the war has to end, Trump will force Netanyahu into the agreement. That is exactly what happened.

What we don’t know still is a lot of very important information. I have been in discussions regarding all of the issues, but I was not in Sharm el Sheikh and I don’t know what has been decided and what still needs to be decided. But the most important thing at this time is the declaration by both sides that the war is over and it will not be renewed. The hostages and prisoners will be freed in the coming days. Israel will begin to withdraw.

Regarding the Hamas weapons, the discussions and proposals were that Hamas would turn over their weapons (those that have the ability to kill a number of people at the same time – not necessarily every rifle) to a new Palestinian security force, perhaps together with Egyptian support. Hamas would not surrender its weapons to Israel, but they could to a Palestinian security force. I don’t know what has been decided.

The new government in Gaza – this has to be a Palestinian government and not a neo-colonial mechanism which the Palestinians do not control. The names of independent Gazans with a public profile have been given to the Americans and also to other international and Arab players involved with the day after and the reconstruction of Gaza. The names that Samer Sinijlawi and I submitted to these important players were Gazan civil society leaders that we met with several times on zoom. They drafted a letter and signed it to President Trump that I delivered to Witkoff for the President stating that they were willing to play a role in the governance of Gaza. We don’t know how this new government will be formed and when it will take over. Hamas agreed from the outset to this kind of government, even from last year. We don’t know if Mahmoud Abbas will ask Dr. Nasser Elkidwa to play a role in the governance of Gaza – something that he has said that he is ready to do.

We don’t know which Palestinian prisoners will be freed in the deal and where they will be freed to. The option of freeing those who are considered by Israel to be the most dangerous to be deported may have been agreed to – we don’t know yet. I spent a lot of time and efforts to provide the Americans with information about Marwan Barghouthi. I sent the opinions of about 20 very important Israelis to the Americans about their opinion – most were in favor of releasing Barghouthi – but some very significant Israelis were opposed. Those who were in favor spoke about the positive role that Barghouthi could play in moving the conflict toward a renewed peace process. Those who were opposed believed that Barghouthi would not play that role.

In conclusion of these first thoughts: President Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. Steve Witkoff is a deal maker and without Witkoff none of this would have happened. Witkoff speaks for the President and everyone knows it. Jared Kusher’s role at this point was crucial because in the near future Ron Dermer will be working for Kushner and not for Netanyahu. Bringing Kushner to the final round of negotiations was a brilliant move to neutralize Dermer’s defined role of foiling every chance of ending the war. The Turkish head of Intelligence is very close to Witkoff and to Hamas and the Turkish intensive role was crucial in putting the pressure on Hamas to agree to the deal and not to walk away from the table.

At 2:00 am all of the participants in the negotiations entered a large room with tables and chairs set up in a square. The Israeli delegation sat directly across from the Hamas delegation. This was the first time in history that official Israelis and officials from Hamas sat in the same room. The deal was signed and now we have to wait for its full implementations. And now we can begin to breathe again.

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This person is a certified expert with a PHD and writes the most naive bs I have ever seen in quite some time from a professor.

No, it could never have happened immediately after Oct 7, for obvious political reasons, since the Israelis were out for revenge and instilling deterrence then. There is no world where they would have accepted a ceasefire without instilling massive trauma on the Gazan population as detterrance and destroying main military strenght of Hamas.

But sure, there could and should have been a ceasefire more than a year ago. But pretending that there could have been a Ceasefire in october or November 2023 is obvious uneducated horseshit. Yes, I say uneducated, because despite being a professor at a fucking Think Tank, she doesn’t get obvious Geopolitics and Security Politics, it seems.

Absolute idiocy of the highest order.

But yes, Biden could and absolutely should, have forced a Ceasefire. He had the chance to do so. But not in a milion lightyears would that have been possible in October at the very start of the Israeli campaign.

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Ah allright, thanks for that clarification, mate.

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The integrity of these hasbara people continues to impress

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This will surely infuriate Netanyahu. Can you really believe Hamas will disarm?

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No, for a while they will be busy rounding up rival clan leaders and clan members, labeling them Israeli spies; before executing them in the streets. It’s what they are doing now. This will go on for a little while as they settle scores with those not loyal enough in their extremely authoritarian eyes.

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Three members of the Qatari delegation at the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh have died in a car crash. According to a report on CNN the crash was caused by a defective steering wheel. A member of the Qatari royal family is one of those who died.

An unfortunate coincidence?

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I just can’t imagine Mossad even entertaining such subterfuge…

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Israel has actually propped-up some clans/gangs in recent months to control certain neighborhoods. Also, someone has to patrol the streets, and maintain law & order. In Gaza, the Police is essentially Hamas too.

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Not half of those Hamas claims are traitors are actually that. Mostly they are clans and families who are against Hamas and their rule.

The idea that Hamas are popular with most Gazans is an absurdity spread by Pro Palestinian sources who think that since Israel is the greater evil, it is best to downplay the horrors of Hamas rule.This has created a horribly skewed perception of what Hamas actually is globally in latter years. It’s not true that Hamas are popular with most Gazans.

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https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1977418132806647844
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1977446450800849228
https://x.com/ariel_oseran/status/1977451273332183425

https://x.com/KhalilJeries/status/1977444426155794636

Unfortunately, Hamas propaganda is very powerful and has created a certain narrative that allows Hamas to rampage and kill rival clans now that there is no longer a threat of Israeli drones from above.
https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1977446767663722951

https://x.com/KhalilJeries/status/1977126643983327405

And before anyone claims that “Magnus, you are posting Palestinian pro-israeli sources”, then please, perish that thought. Open their accounts, scroll down. Not exactly pro israeli to put it extremely mildly. Against Hamas ? Yes, I prefer objective sources or as objective as possible in a polarised climate and not rely uncritically on religious fascists who are proven liars.

https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1977415703713173662
https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1977420831073685595
https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1977431018346058123
https://x.com/KhalilJeries/status/1977452017506251181

This happened on a very small scale also during the previous botched ceasefire and this has now been going on for a few days. But of course, people can pretend to ignore it because Israel is the Greater Evil or listen to pro Hamas sources who claim that all of these clans are Israeli spies (even though Israel has killed many of their members). Shrugs

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But of course, this is the reason why Pro Palestinian propagandists never mention the cruelty of Hamas and extremely often lie about it (very least by omission). Because Israel and Israeli propagandists, of course, exploit it as much as possible:
https://x.com/KhalilJeries/status/1977206070285418726

So it is understandable in a way, but the grim result is that it legitimises Hamas internationally, which is a complete disaster for Palestinians who do not want to be pawns of Hamas. After all, Hamas literally, several times, stated out loud that goading Israel into invading so they could have a big urban battle and inflict cas on the IDF and deligimise Israel due to massive Palestinian Civilian casualties resulting from urban warfare and the predicted Israeli overeaction, was the very goal of october the 7th op.
Who ever thinks that most Palestinians are onboard with this Martyrdom program on an industrial scale, is truly fucking mistaken (because palestinians understand Arabic, and so understands what it means when Hamas says that they wanted to goad israel into attacking and and that this was, in Hamas own words, worth a million martyrs) . But the sad result of all of this is that for now, Hamas rule will continue. For now anyway. It’s fucked up.

It’s the everyone is a cruel dick war. Except Israel has the bigger army and the most dangeorus weapons and so when the psychopats in Israel invades, it destroys cites into rubble, while the psychopats in Hamas have no such capacity.

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https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1977490146896367747

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He is such an intelligent man. I wish Hamas were able to think like this former Al Qaida leader. There is a lot to admire about Al Shaara.A great military commander with a great Intellect and crucially, the pragmatism needed for a leader of a people. Of course, he is devious too. I would not “trust him” and there have been massacres in Syria lately, not only those who were in the coastal Alawite enclaves, but also against druze and his state forces are fractured and some of them not very diciplined. But I think he will avoid disastrous adventures and doubt there will be real war with the SDF.

Never mind the ingress of this clip, listen to his words instead:
https://x.com/xumas_iq/status/1977484261763506623

A very admirable man in so many ways. And yes, I know everything relevant about his past. But it’s about growing and about the journey and where you end up.

Because, literally this:
https://x.com/TaziMorocco/status/1977496441015992519

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On the contrary, He’ll be delighted that there is Palestinian infighting, and he’ll probably favour it as much as he can.

Not the first time I state this: Hamas and the current Israeli government are two faces of the same coin.

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German political scientists and their bizarre bunker-perspective takes on Israel and the region
https://x.com/ulrichspeck/status/1977700104929767830

Maybe, although militarily defeated, it is not actually “gone” on the street, Ulrich and just maybe, many of the Arab regimes are unstable.

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I’m no expert on these matters, but it’s difficult to imagine such historic religious and political conflict will have collapsed into the Gaza ruins.

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