The Middle East Thread

Yeah, ‘ask humanity to intervene’ is not the most robust plan.

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Anyone who thinks the hostages are an actual asset for Hamas (far less for the palestinan people) is a fool who does not understand reality. The hostages remains Israel’s political cover for their campaign and will remain so until released.

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I agree, but why have Hamas kept them for so long, then? I’d probably agree with you if you said that they are fools who don’t understand reality.

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A Bangladeshi :bangladesh: photographer, and activist is among those kidnapped by the IDF.

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There were also several Swiss in the first flotilla. Stories coming out now that they were severely mistreated by the IDF during their detention, before being deported towards Turkey for a first batch of prisoners , and to Jordan for a second one.

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Yes, but I have written about this several times in this thread the last few years (about their miscalculation, bunker mentality/tunnel vision of Qassam brigades and lack of understanding of geopolitical realities and their lack of allies). Right now, I don’t feel like writing very long, saying the same I have written in very long posts previously. Absolutely no offence intended, but I find it mentally tiresome repeating myself.

But yes, essentially, yes. Hamas are cerfitied strategic idiots blinded by fanaticm. After all, their entire plan was to provoke Israel into an overreaction (because of panicking over the Abraham Accords, fear of irrelevance and loss of power etc.) and it didn’t work very well for them; and even less for the Gazan people who Hamas so extrordinary carelessly, decided to stake in their irresponsible geopolitical gamble. Worst play in modern history.

But many still celebrate October the 7th as a great victory, I note. Which I of course find bizarre, since it opened the very gates of hell.

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Legions of highly interesting reports coming out of Egypt, Lebanon, the US and Israel; right now. Maybe I should even start to dare hoping.

The 2 most difficult conditions remains: The Israeli phased withdrawal and Hamas laying down arms, for different political reasons.

From Egypt (this could be a spoiler):

But both Al Arabia and Al-Mayadeen now reports that a Ceasefire will be signed tomorrow. Same out of the US and Israel.

Meanwhile, Israeli settlers are terrorising the West Bank communities, as have become the norm:
https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1976044471159837116

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Rubio’s note to Trump:


https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1976048625542365646
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1976038627726721201
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1976044341656420731

https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1976050440686252404

(I must here, although I am very hopeful, be cynical and note that the devil is in the details and particularly the Hamas disarmament issue; which may not go smoothly since it is tantamount to conditional capitulation).

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Smiling, for now…
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1976050939158200617

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They have signed the document

So there WILL be a ceasefire.
But as I said above, I am still wary of potential spoilers later on (Hamas disarmament chiefly, but also israeli phased withdrawal) that could lead to recomencement of war if any of the sides finds it politically suitable.

But for now, this was an amazingly good day (not trying to throw shade on something so fantastic, i am just warning of possible future obstacles that could lead to for instance Israel breaking the cease fire due to for instance Hamas not disarming).

But right now, most Gazans will not care about that. And this is certainly a very, very good day.
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1976057550383763923

https://x.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1976066185360982451

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Not that I have the power to influence anyone in Gaza. But if I did, I would have strongly warned everyone to avoid gatherings of people and in particularly stay the fuck away from “Mujaheedin” until the Ceasefire is actually in effect.
https://x.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1976055432767574481

Dr. Hellver writes nicely in bullet points what I wrote above:
https://x.com/hahellyer/status/1976070830246281679

Al Aqsa Flood cheerleaders unhappy as was to be expected, some how thinking Hamas can get a better deal despite there being no world where this is true; caring nothing about living civilians, as always.

" A minute from victory" :grimacing: :roll_eyes: :face_vomiting:

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What I don’t like about these statements is that there is not one word about food and medics getting freely and rapidly to Gaza. Yes, it’s good to have a cease-fire, and it’s good that the hostages will finally be delivered, but it’s not worth much if people in Gaza can’t very quickly get food and medics, and everything else they need to stay alive.

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Why the fuck would they care about such things? They’ve shown zero concern up to now. Hasn’t trump previously made clear where his priorities lie?

There is. I thought I had posted that, but it seems I didn’t. Not been online today, but I remember 500 or something minimum trailers with food and medicine from memory, to be increased gradually, from Sunday or something. It is of course included in the deal, as is release of some 250 lifetime prisoners (and I think, 1700 or something that Israel has arrested since Oct 7th) etc.
The general deal I have certainly posted above days ago.

In case anybody was wondering , Marwan Barghouti is not on the list of Palestinian prisoners to be released , according to an Israeli govt. Press ‘conference’ in the last half hour.

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