The Middle East Thread

" The deepening IDF incursion into Gaza comes amid dwindling Israeli public enthusiasm for a prolonged occupation. Support has fallen from 65% on 10 October to 46% now, according to a study by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, which has monitored the same sample of 1,774 people, with a 4.2% margin of error.

“We see a continuation of the decline in Israeli support for occupying Gaza,” said Nimrod Nir, a researcher at the social science faculty. “The shock we saw in the first week, the rage we saw in the second, are slowly moderated and now Israelis care more about the hostage situation, are less inclined to enter a full-scale occupation.”

The prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, appeared increasingly beleaguered after trying to deflect blame for the Hamas onslaught. On Sunday he tweeted that his security chiefs had assured him Hamas was contained and had no plans to attack. Hours later he deleted the post and apologised.

The debacle prompted criticism even from allies who said Netanyahu had facilitated Hamas’s grip on Gaza as part of a strategy to divide Palestinians.

“Since coming to power in 2009, Netanyahu has built up Hamas as an alternative to the Palestinian Authority,” wrote Yoav Limor, the military affairs correspondent for Israel Hayom, a normally pro-Netanyahu newspaper. “He was warned countless times that this was a dangerous plan: instead of bolstering the pragmatic elements, he strengthened those that will never recognize Israel’s existence.”

Ben Caspit, a commentator in Ma’ariv, called Netanyahu a “scarecrow that is stuffed with rags playing the role of prime minister” and urged his party, Likud, to remove him. “He is unfit physically, he is unfit mentally, he is unfit morally. He needs to step down, and the sooner the better.”

from The Guardian.

I think a lot of Israelis don’t see any good options, but are increasingly clear that the current one is not least-worst.

That said, I don’t think the consensus that Hamas has to be destroyed is going to fade.

But maybe the realisation dawning that destroying Hamas is an impossible goal, and all slaughtering civilians will do is embolden them and swell their ranks with fathers and sons wanting revenge

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Transgenerational trauma. Without proper reconciliation and support for victims, the trauma can’t be dealt with and gets transmitted to future generations. We see this every day in N. Ireland

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No, it doesn’t appear to be. Hence Netanyahu now being in the crosshairs for having deliberately encouraged the ascendancy of Hamas as an organization that did not believe in ‘land for peace’ any more than he and his ilk do.

I also think destroying Hamas is not an impossible goal. One may produce another generation that will produce another organization in the same role. But eliminating Hamas is feasible, just not without an appalling amount of bloodshed. Look at Barak’s position, for the first time in a generation the two-state solution he advocated as prime minister is back in the mainstream of Israeli politics. His view is that Israel has to eliminate Hamas and then immediately turn to implementing two states, bringing more pragmatic Palestinian voices back to the table for the first time in what, 17 years?

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Unfortunately, I think this conflict is far more deeply rooted than in Northern Ireland, and far broader in how it includes the two sides/societies. The peace in Northern Ireland was founded on the widespread desire in the Catholic and Protestant populations to end violence and simply find a way to live together, which the majority didn’t really think was an impossibility. Only relatively small extremist minorities did not see a way to live in peace. In Israel/Palestine, I don’t believe we actually have that foundational condition.

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I also think that it is possible to get rid of Hamas - by doing the exact contrary of what Netanyahou has done over the years. The pragmatic elements in Palestinian society need to be recognised, encouraged and supported by all means. That in turn will lead to them getting to power, and then a dialogue will be possible. If some dangerous Hamas leaders need to be eliminated by special ops tactics, then so be it.

But first things first: Netanyahou needs to be shown the door by the Israelis, along with his right-wing allies.

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I don’t think those pragmatic voices can come forward as long as Hamas is in power, at least in Gaza. I can see Barak’s logic, but somehow what is happening in Gaza right now doesn’t strike me as an ideal foundation for what is going to be an extraordinarily difficult negotiation and implementation process.

I think there are/were different factions. Some who may have been more disposed for peace than the others.

I suppose that’s out of the question now.

How does one eliminate radicalism ? Once the idea has taken root in people. There will be other extremists who will take the mantle even if Hamas is dismantled.

I don’t think you can, but you can cripple organizations and leave them too weak to be effective for significant periods. If you don’t fundamentally believe there is a basis for peace, what other option is there? You kill this group of extremists, and hope other elements win out in the next period - even while you expect they likely won’t.

I heard somewhere that some extraordinarily popular Palestinian Fatah leaders, pragmatic ones, have been detained in jail these last years by Netanyahou’s government, for minor delicts (can’t remember their names unfortunately). Apparently, these people have the potential in terms of popularity to replace Mahmoud Abbas, and apparently, most Palestinians in Gaza and in the West Bank would vote for them if they could.

It’s certainly worth a try imo, but it’s of course a long-term process. It will be extraordinarily difficult indeed, but it’s after all the only way forward.

(Yeah, Hamas leaders need to be taken out, that’s for sure. They will do everything to prevent moderate leaders to seize power in Gaza).

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There have been many pragmatic voices in West Bank and settlement building continues unabated, meaning that there’s no chance of a 2 state solution anymore.

I wasn’t making any comparison with NI, beyond the transgenerational impact of trauma.

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I think it’s too far gone now.

These extremists have been radicalized with the beliefs by their mullahs and their religious leaders that Jews must be exterminated.

People just can’t deny the anti-Semitism is taken as the norm in the general islamic world.

The Jewish response to this anti semitism has been to oppress Palestinians even more. Maybe a part of it has to be that even if the major part of it is to just ensure the Palestinians leave the place.

It’s a mess that a functional UNSC would have been able to solve.

Well he lives in Qatar so slaughtering children in Gaza probably isn’t the best approach

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A 2 state solution sounds good on paper. But doesn’t work. Even people who support it are increasingly realising it’s not feasible. The time has gone and Israel’s (which did win the 1967 war) feels it’s got no obligation to stick to a 2 state solution anymore.

Qatar is always seen as a bit of a rogue state , even by the other Arab nations.

True enough about the settlements, and I have no idea what Barak has to say about them. His hope would appear to be that there is still some slim possibility - hard to see it, given a generation of entrenched settler interests.

Wasn’t really suggesting that you were making a direct comparison, but rather building on your point. Transgenerational trauma is now an intrinsic part of both cultures at an everyday level in way that I don’t think it quite reached in Northern Ireland. Given how difficult the Good Friday process was, it is hard for me at least to even imagine a workable peace process.

Palestinians are allowed to live on their historical land, alongside Jews, with equal rights. A proper peace process with difficult compromises on both sides.

Yes it seems far-fetched but less so than thinking a genocide on Gaza will eliminate Hamas and bring about peace

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I don’t think Barak really wants a 2 state solution despite what he claims.