The Middle East Thread

[Iftikhar]

@Arminius

This is an oddly optimistic take on the situation, which is encouraging if only in the sense that is hard to muster optimism by one’s self

As dark as things seem, the war in Gaza could end up restarting the peace process | Tony Klug | The Guardian

I have heard/read such narratives since October 7. I’m not cynical, but I feel this is just a hope that something good will happen, rather than any expectation. I too like to think that there will be a solution. But every time, one thing springs into my mind, nearly a million Israeli settlers in West Bank.

1. Are they going to be removed/relocated from West Bank? Improbable, if not impossible. These people are armed and dangerous and any suggestion of leaving West Bank will lead to formation of militant groups much worse than Hamas.

2. Will Israel give up land somewhere else in return for the settler-occupied land in West Bank? If that land is suitable for habitat, chances are that already has settlements and they had to be removed/relocated. If the land isn’t suitable for habitat (Negev), then it’s a pointless exercise.

3. Will Israel keep the settler-occupied area and in return accept the over three million Palestine refugees in Israel? That will bring non-Jewish/Arab population in Israel to over 40% and wouldn’t be acceptable to orthodox Jews.

[ISMF]

@Arminius

Don’t really care to ‘both sides’ this, but it is exasperating to see how little these organizations have directed criticism at Hamas. In a conflict, all combatants have a responsibility to minimize casualties. Hamas has been recognized as the government of Gaza for a generation, at the insistence of some of these same organizations. That is why the rules of war are applicable. The section of the Geneva Convention that condemns Israel for using disproportionate force in proximity to civilians equally condemns Hamas for sheltering its forces in a civilian population.

In answer to ‘where else can they go’, the rules of law can require a force with no prospect for victory to surrender if that would minimize innocent casualties.

For me it’s quite simple. The UN has rightfully called the 7th of October as a war crime.

What has happened since is multiple war crimes from Israel, on multiple days, on a scale a magnitude greater. The impact is literally on millions of people and crucially shows no sign of stopping.

Potential war crimes include:

• Depriving food,water,electricity, medicines, aid
• Displacement of hundred of thousands of people
• Indiscriminate bombing
• Targeting facilities such as hospitals and UN schools
• Mistreatment of captives (see recent videos of Israeli soldiers pissing on burnt bodies and kicking naked, blindfolded captives from West Bank)
• Use of weapons not suited to densely populated regions.

On top of that, UN has had 29 on its staff killed. Other organisations have also lost staff. These organisations are being prevented from providing aid. In response Israel is taking a stance of directly mocking and criticising these organisations. That’s going to get their ire.

Whilst Hamas is no doubt using civilians as a human shields. It’s rolled out as a stock response in instances clearly not the case. When this is challenged Hamas becomes the loosest of definitions not combatants. Trust us, while he might have killed 50,100, 200 civilians in that strike, we did get some key targets, it just comes across pretty weak.

[Arminius]

@Hope.in.your.heart

I’m quite comfortable to tag Hamas’ attack as a genocide to be fair, just as for me, Israel is about to commit an even worse genocide in terms of numbers.

I am not. I think the current definition is moronic, trivializes actual genocide, and ends up making the term fairly useless. I am willing to consider the possibility that what is happening in Gaza right now may be called genocide, because it is clear that at least some elements of Israeli thought are actively contemplating ethnic cleansing, the forced and violent removal of Palestinians from Gaza. But awful as what happened on October 7 may have been, as motivated by hatreds as it may be, there is something qualitatively different from the kind of vicious violence directed at civilians and true genocide, (even if those civilians were targeted due to ethnic or religious identity) something like the attempt to exterminate the Tutsi in Rwanda.

The absence of a test of means or capacity in the international legal definition of genocide makes it more difficult to discuss incidents like this coherently. I don’t fault you for using the ‘even worse genocide’ idea, because we need some sort of way to acknowledge the asymmetry of power in the situation. But genocide isn’t supposed to be one of those things that comes in worse varieties.

[Arminius]

Hard to disagree with much of that. This conflict began with the awful and has headed steadily toward the hellish. As I noted above though, few of those organizations have made strident calls for the immediate release of hostages. Hamas did not stop committing war crimes on October 8.

If Hamas leadership wants to get out of this, they need to split the current Israeli consensus. A request for a 10 day ceasefire or the like to return hostages would put Netanyahu under enormous internal pressure, and strip away a significant amount of his external support.

[Bekloppt]

Hamas’ attack wasn’t genocide. It was a despicable terrorist atrocity, but not a systematic attempt to wipe out a race. If we call it genocide the word loses it’s meaning.
Israel’s actions look much more like genocide, but still fall short of it as the aim seems to be massive disproportionate collective punishment rather than complete annihilation of the Palestinian people (so far). If they wanted to destroy all of them, they’d use nuclear or chemical weapons.
Language is important, and the wanton misuse of very powerful words renders them meaningless and diverts from the true situation.

[WeeJoe]

They are using chemical weapons. They’ve destroyed 50% of the infrastructure and are trying their best to kill, or displace the population to the Sinai desert. They have systematically tried to destroy (or not even recognise) Palestine as a state or Palestinians as a people. It couldn’t be more of a genocide

[PaulRoJo]

Yep the UN has recognised it is on the way to genocide.

UN experts say ceasefire needed as Palestinians at 'grave risk of genocide'

[Alex]

@redalways

@Arminius

but it is exasperating to see how little these organizations have directed criticism at Hamas. In a conflict, all combatants have a responsibility to minimize casualties. Hamas has been recognized as the government of Gaza for a generation, at the insistence of some of these same organizations.

I can’t speak for others, but I’d hold a terrorist organisation to a different standard from a purportedly democratically-elected government.

Everyone knows Hamas wants to eradicate Israel, and would if they could. But the Israeli government is supposed to be a more responsible entity than that.

I’m not saying that this is either right or wrong, but that’s the way it is.

That reminds me of some years ago when we played the likes of stoke and west brom (and atletico). Them thugs could rugby tackle our players and the ref would allow because “that’s how they are setup to play”. When our players tried to win a challenge, they would roll on the ground and obtain the foul. For the ref that was a nasty challenge by Lfc standard.
Those matches usually ended in a draw or defeat for us with a couple of injuries and several cards.

[Bekloppt]

On the way.

[PaulRoJo]

@Alex

That reminds me of some years ago when we played the likes of stoke and west brom

Nah, the slaughter of thousands of children by Israeli armed forces doesn’t make me think of a football match.

[Alex]

That was not a question

[Sithbare]

@Bekloppt

Hamas’ attack wasn’t genocide. It was a despicable terrorist atrocity, but not a systematic attempt to wipe out a race. If we call it genocide the word loses it’s meaning.
Israel’s actions look much more like genocide, but still fall short of it as the aim seems to be massive disproportionate collective punishment rather than complete annihilation of the Palestinian people (so far). If they wanted to destroy all of them, they’d use nuclear or chemical weapons.

This. People shouldn’t be concerned with terms

Both sides are guilty of war crimes and both should be condemned.

Hamas isn’t just a terrorist organisation. For the people of Gaza , it’s their government as well. As a government, they have a responsibility for citizens under their care. And that involves not hiding their commanders in hospitals/ schools etc , not launching missiles from sensitive areas where there are Palestinian citizens.

Causing the death of Palestinian citizens wilfully by launching rockets from residential/hospitals and then to use that as a justification when Israel eventually does bomb the rocket launch sites (which people do condemn Israel for rightfully) to cry victim is something that is hypocritical, evil and needs to be condemned.

Call them a terrorist organisation by all means but to say that they aren’t a government is wrong. They have a care as every government to protect their people first and Hamas fails in doing that.

[JU97ICE]

I’m with a few others that the ‘Genocide’ word is being used lightly here and a lot of places.

My opinion is:

1. Hamas is a government. Let’s not pretend they haven’t been running Gaza for a decade. They also have extremely low standards in terms of governing for their citizens. I don’t even need to hear Israel’s version of events to believe that Hamas use Gazan citizens as human shields by setting up their infrastructure in civilian population centres. You’d need to be extremely naive to not believe that.

2. The 7th October attack was a terrorist attack and also a war crime.

3. The Israel government is in all likelihood conducting in war crimes.

Whether Israel is conducting in genocide may be a case for the international courts in years to come. Unfortunately wars are fast moving and the charge and burden of proof required for genocide is slow moving which is why it’s difficult to call it as it’s happening. I would think the bar to prove war crimes is far lower than genocide.

[peterroberts]

The more it is spoken about is a reflection of the growing realisation of just what Israel’s endgame is here , i.e. the emptying of the Gaza Strip , rendering the land uninhabitable for future settlement and the forced displacement of the population.

And no-one should be in the least bit surprised at that because that was the unofficial policy even before Hamas seized power there.

Israeli Govt.Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s comments earlier this year about there being no such thing as the Palestinian people predictably caused outrage , but earlier comments from him and others went less reported.

In 2017 he laid out what he called a “decisive plan” in which West Bank Palestinians would be offered a choice. Those who agreed to “forgo their national aspirations”—in other words, abandon the demand for either a Palestinian state or citizenship in Israel—would be permitted to stay in the West Bank as stateless non-citizens. Those who maintained such demands would “receive aid to emigrate.” In other words , forced displacement.

That fall he told his Palestinian colleagues in the Knesset that they were “here by mistake—because Ben-Gurion didn’t finish the job and throw you out in 1948.”

Benny Gantz , who is now in Netanyahu’s unity government , said ; "Smotrich wants to cause another Palestinian Nakba—for him, escalation is a desirable thing.”

The other openly racist Minister , Ben-Gvir , has also called for expulsions. During the 2022 campaign, his campaign erected billboards that read “May our enemies be banished” below photos of Knesset members from Palestinian parties.

They are not alone , several of the government’s top Likud ministers have signaled their openness to mass expulsion as well.

Does anyone doubt that these highly influential government figures are going to pass up this opportunity to further their goals ?

“Whoever cries of the Nakba year after year, shouldn’t be surprised if they actually have a Nakba eventually.” - Avi Dichter, Israel’s current Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Some of the quotes I’ve used here come from this excellent article from April of this year ;

Could Israel Carry Out Another Nakba?

[WeeJoe]

@JU97ICE

Whether Israel is conducting in genocide may be a case for the international courts in years to come

This is the problem. The international community sat by and watched the genocides in Rwanda, Rohingya, Bangladesh, Ethiopia etc then called it genocide after. What use is that? This needs to be stopped now. Instead it’s being actively supported and armed by US and UK.

Israel aren’t going to stop until US tells them to. If they don’t this will definitely been seen as a genocide in the future, and every single person will need to ask themselves what they did at the time, within their power, to call for a ceasefire

[JU97ICE]

I’d argue if they can genuinely be accused of war crimes and the allies don’t even bat an eyelid then I’d say they wouldn’t change if Israel was accused of genocide.

[RedSeven]

If Isreal wasn’t seen as allied to the west then what they have done would already be seen and called out as Genocide by the UK and USA.

[Iftikhar]

@WeeJoe

Bangladesh

Three million people died (massacre, starvation, disease) in under nine months. It took UN 25 years to recognise it as a genocide.

[Sithbare]

@Iftikhar

Three million people died (massacre, starvation, disease) in under nine months. It took UN 25 years to recognise it as a genocide.

And the country who perpetrated that is still in denial.

[Iftikhar]

@Sithbare

@Iftikhar

Three million people died (massacre, starvation, disease) in under nine months. It took UN 25 years to recognise it as a genocide.

And the country who perpetrated that is still in denial.

To their credit, Imran Khan did say that Pakistan made a terrible mistake in 1971.

Considering the air force bombed an Eid congregation in Baluchistan and the ISI threw alive and hand-tied Sindhi nationalists into the river (Sindh), that was rather courageous and honest from him.

Anyway, back to Palestine